Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Blue Wall Shows Cracks As Race Tightens, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Michigan Moves To Toss-Up, Dems Lead In PA & WI
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PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 49%, Trump 46%, other candidates 2%
MICHIGAN: Trump 50%, Harris 47%, other candidates 2%
WISCONSIN: Trump 48%, Harris 46%, other candidates 2%
Less than a month until Election Day, the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show a tight presidential race where neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump is winning as all three states are too close to call, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.
In Quinnipiac University's September 18 poll, Harris held a lead in Pennsylvania, a slight lead in Michigan, and the race was essentially tied in Wisconsin.
"That was then, this is now. The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling seven issues...
The economy:
- PA: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
- MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
- WI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.
Immigration:
- PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
- WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.
Preserving democracy in the United States:
- PA: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
- MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
- WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.
Abortion:
- PA: 37 percent say Trump, while 55 percent say Harris;
- MI: 40 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
- WI: 39 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.
The conflict in the Middle East:
- PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
- WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.
As Commander in Chief of the U.S. military:
- PA: 48 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
- MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.
A crisis that put the country at great risk:
- PA: 46 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
- MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- WI: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.
"The widening threat of a war encompassing the Middle East elbows its way into the long list of issues both candidates would confront the day they are sworn in, with Trump ahead on this issue in Wisconsin and Michigan," added Malloy.
SHARED VALUES
Likely voters were asked who they think most shares their values...
- PA: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
- MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
- WI: 48 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.
"Three critical states take the measure of two candidates on the values that define who they are and how they align with voters. In a telling sign, the answers reflect the overall race with voters in Pennsylvania giving Harris the upper hand while voters are split in Michigan and Wisconsin," added Malloy.
PENNSYLVANIA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Pennsylvania, 49 percent of likely voters support Harris, 46 percent support Trump, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support.
This compares to September when Harris led with 51 percent support, Trump received 45 percent support, and Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats 94 - 4 percent support Harris, while Republicans 90 - 9 percent support Trump. Among independents, 47 percent support Trump, 43 percent support Harris, and 3 percent support third- party candidates (2 percent support Stein and 1 percent support Oliver).
In a hypothetical two-way race, Harris receives 49 percent support and Trump receives 47 percent support.
PENNSYLVANIA: U.S. SENATE RACE
Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 51 - 43 percent, essentially unchanged from last month.
In today's poll, Democrats 96 - 3 percent back Casey, while Republicans 88 - 10 percent back McCormick. Independents are evenly split, with 44 percent supporting McCormick and 44 percent supporting Casey.
PENNSYLVANIA: FRACKING
Forty-seven percent of likely voters think Trump would do a better job handling fracking, while 45 percent think Harris would do a better job handling fracking.
PENNSYLVANIA: VOTE COUNT
When likely voters were asked how confident they are that votes across Pennsylvania will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election, 77 percent say they are either very confident (43 percent) or somewhat confident (34 percent), while 22 percent say they are either not so confident (12 percent) or not confident at all (10 percent).
MICHIGAN: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Michigan, 50 percent of likely voters support Trump, 47 percent support Harris, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support.
This compares to September when Harris received 50 percent support, Trump received 45 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2 percent support.
In today's poll, Republicans 96 - 3 percent back Trump, while Democrats 98 - 1 percent back Harris. Independents are divided, with 48 percent supporting Trump, 46 percent supporting Harris, and 3 percent supporting independent or third-party candidates (2 percent support West and 1 percent support Oliver).
In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump receives 51 percent support and Harris receives 47 percent support.
MICHIGAN: U.S. SENATE RACE
The race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is tied, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and 48 percent of likely voters supporting former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers.
This compares to September when Slotkin received 51 percent support and Rogers received 46 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats 98 - 1 percent support Slotkin, while Republicans 92 - 5 percent support Rogers. Independents are evenly split, with 48 percent supporting Slotkin and 48 percent supporting Rogers.
MICHIGAN: ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Likely voters 57 - 34 percent oppose government incentives to encourage people to buy more electric vehicles.
Republicans (91 - 5 percent) and independents (58 - 32 percent) oppose government incentives, while Democrats (69 - 18 percent) support them.
MICHIGAN: VOTE COUNT
When likely voters were asked how confident they are that votes across Michigan will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election, 77 percent say they are either very confident (47 percent) or somewhat confident (30 percent), while 21 percent say they are either not so confident (12 percent) or not confident at all (9 percent).
WISCONSIN: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Wisconsin, 48 percent of likely voters support Trump, 46 percent support Harris, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support.
This compares to September when Harris received 48 percent support, Trump received 47 percent support, and Stein received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Republicans 95 - 4 percent support Trump, while Democrats 98 - 2 percent support Harris. Independents are split, with 47 percent supporting Trump, 43 percent supporting Harris, and 3 percent supporting third-party candidates (2 percent support Stein and 1 percent support Oliver).
In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump receives 49 percent support and Harris receives 47 percent support.
WISCONSIN: U.S. SENATE RACE
Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin has a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde 50 - 46 percent, essentially unchanged from September.
Democrats 99 - 1 percent support Baldwin, while Republicans 91 - 7 percent support Hovde. Independents are divided, with 50 percent supporting Baldwin and 46 percent supporting Hovde.
WISCONSIN: VOTE COUNT
When likely voters were asked how confident they are that votes across Wisconsin will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election, 78 percent say they are either very confident (46 percent) or somewhat confident (32 percent), while 19 percent say they are either not so confident (12 percent) or not confident at all (7 percent).
From October 3rd - 7th, the Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed:
- 1,412 likely voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points;
- 1,007 likely voters in Michigan with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
- 1,073 likely voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, - (MI) Cornel West running as an independent candidate, and Randall Terry the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan candidate, / (WI) Cornel West the Justice For All Party candidate, Randall Terry the Constitution Party candidate, and Claudia De la Cruz the Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate, - for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Harris 47% 49% 46% Trump 50 46 48 Stein - 1 1 Oliver 1 1 1 West 1 na - Terry - na - De la Cruz na na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 2 REFUSED 1 2 1 -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Harris 47% 49% 47% Trump 51 47 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 2 REFUSED 1 2 1 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for president before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Very likely 1% 1% 1% Somewhat likely 2 4 4 Not so likely 2 5 7 Not likely at all 95 90 88 DK/NA - - - -
Question 1c. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Very enthusiastic 77% 68% 65% Smwht enthusiastic 17 26 27 Not so enthusiastic 3 4 4 Not enthus at all 2 2 3 DK/NA - 1 1 -
Question 2_MIonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Elissa Slotkin the Democrat and Mike Rogers the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Slotkin 48% - - Rogers 48 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - REFUSED 1 - - -
Question 2_PAonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey the Democrat and David McCormick the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Casey - 51% - McCormick - 43 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 5 - REFUSED - 1 - -
Question 2_WIonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Eric Hovde the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Baldwin - - 50% Hovde - - 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) - - 2 REFUSED - - 1 -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, - (PA/WI) or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot? (MI) vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI In person 48% 72% 69% Mail/Absentee ballot 39 27 30 Early voting loc 11 na na WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 2 1 1 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Favorable 47% 49% 46% Unfavorable 51 46 50 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 3 REFUSED 1 2 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Favorable 49% 44% 46% Unfavorable 49 53 51 Hvn't hrd enough - 1 2 REFUSED 1 2 1 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Tim Walz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Favorable 44% 44% 44% Unfavorable 43 37 37 Hvn't hrd enough 12 18 19 REFUSED 2 2 1 -
Question 7. Is your opinion of J.D. Vance favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Favorable 45% 40% 43% Unfavorable 44 46 43 Hvn't hrd enough 10 13 14 REFUSED 1 2 1 -
Question 8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 53% 49% 53% Harris 45 47 44 DK/NA 2 4 3 -
Question 9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling immigration: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 53% 50% 52% Harris 44 46 44 DK/NA 3 4 4 -
Question 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - preserving democracy in the United States: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 49% 44% 47% Harris 48 50 48 DK/NA 3 5 5 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 40% 37% 39% Harris 52 55 53 DK/NA 8 8 7 -
Question 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the conflict in the Middle East: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 53% 47% 51% Harris 43 46 44 DK/NA 4 6 5 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - as Commander in Chief of the U.S. military: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 52% 48% 51% Harris 46 48 45 DK/NA 2 4 4 -
Question 14_PAonly. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling fracking: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump - 47% - Harris - 45 - DK/NA - 9 - -
Question 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling a crisis that put the country at great risk: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 52% 46% 49% Harris 46 49 47 DK/NA 2 4 4 -
Question 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think most shares your values: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 49% 44% 48% Harris 47 50 48 DK/NA 4 6 4 -
Question 17. How confident are you that votes across - (MI) Michigan / (PA) Pennsylvania / (WI) Wisconsin - will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election; very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Very confident 47% 43% 46% Somewhat confident 30 34 32 Not so confident 12 12 12 Not confident at all 9 10 7 DK/NA 1 - 2 -
Question 18_MIonly. Do you support or oppose government incentives to encourage people to buy more electric vehicles?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Support 34% - - Oppose 57 - - DK/NA 9 - -