Swing State Poll 2024: Georgia, North Carolina: Trump Holds Lead In GA, Harris On Upside Of Tight Race In NC, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; NC Gubernatorial Race: Stein Leads Robinson By Double Digits
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GEORGIA: Trump 52%, Harris 45%, other candidates 2%
NORTH CAROLINA: Harris 49%, Trump 47%, other candidates 1%
NC GOVERNOR RACE: Stein 52%, Robinson 40%, other candidates 4%
In the final weeks of the 2024 presidential race, a snapshot of the state of the race in the key Southeastern swing states of Georgia and North Carolina shows different pictures. In Georgia, former President Donald Trump holds a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, while in North Carolina Harris is on the upside of a race that is too close to call, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the two states released today.
"Between them, there's a mother lode of electoral votes ready to be mined. One state favors Trump. The other is up for grabs," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling...
The economy:
- GA: 55 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
- NC: 51 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.
Immigration:
- GA: 57 percent say Trump, while 41 percent say Harris;
- NC: 50 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.
Preserving democracy in the United States:
- GA: 51 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- NC: 47 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris.
Abortion:
- GA: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
- NC: 42 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris.
An emergency in the United States:
- GA: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
- NC: 48 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris.
A crisis that put the country at great risk:
- GA: 54 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
- NC: 48 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: PERSONAL TRAITS
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump are honest:
GA:
- Harris: 42 percent say yes, 50 percent say no;
- Trump: 44 percent say yes; 51 percent say no.
NC:
- Harris: 49 percent say yes, 47 percent say no;
- Trump: 41 percent say yes, 56 percent say no.
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump care about the needs and problems of people like them:
GA:
- Harris: 47 percent say yes, 50 percent say no;
- Trump: 52 percent say yes, 46 percent say no.
NC:
- Harris: 50 percent say yes, 48 percent say no;
- Trump: 47 percent say yes, 51 percent say no.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of...
Kamala Harris:
- GA: 44 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable;
- NC: 48 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable.
Donald Trump:
- GA: 51 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable;
- NC: 46 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable.
GEORGIA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Georgia, 52 percent of likely voters support Trump, 45 percent support Harris, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support.
This is largely unchanged from Quinnipiac University's October 1 poll when Trump received 50 percent support, Harris received 44 percent support, and third-party candidates received 3 percent support.
In Quinnipiac University's September 9 poll, Trump received 49 percent support, Harris received 45 percent support, and third-party candidates received 2 percent support.
In today's poll, Republicans 95 - 5 percent back Trump, while Democrats 97 - 3 percent back Harris. Among independents, 49 percent support Trump, 42 percent support Harris, 4 percent support third-party candidates (2 percent support Stein and 2 percent support Oliver), and 4 percent are undecided.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump receives 52 percent support and Harris receives 46 percent support.
"Georgia is on their minds and for now Trump is humming along and hoping to hold that old sweet song through Election Day," added Malloy.
NORTH CAROLINA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In North Carolina, 49 percent of likely voters support Harris, 47 percent support Trump, and 1 percent support Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver.
In Quinnipiac University's October 1 poll, Trump received 49 percent support, Harris received 47 percent support, and third-party candidates received 2 percent support.
In Quinnipiac University's September 9 poll, Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 46 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Republicans 95 - 4 percent back Trump, while Democrats 95 - 3 percent back Harris. Independents are divided, with 49 percent supporting Harris, 45 percent supporting Trump, and 4 percent supporting third-party candidates (2 percent support Oliver, 1 percent support Stein, and 1 percent support the Justice for All Party candidate Cornel West).
In a hypothetical two-way race, Harris receives 50 percent support and Trump receives 47 percent support.
"In a tight race, there is an enormous gender gap, women for Harris and men for Trump, going down to the final stretch," added Malloy.
NORTH CAROLINA: GOVERNOR RACE
In North Carolina's gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson 52 - 40 percent in a multi-candidate race, with Libertarian Party candidate Mike Ross receiving 2 percent support and Green Party candidate Wayne Turner and Constitution Party candidate Vinny Smith each receiving 1 percent support.
The race is essentially unchanged from Quinnipiac University's October 1 poll showing Stein leading Robinson 52 - 39 percent, and third-party candidates receiving 4 percent support.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Stein leads Robinson 54 - 42 percent.
From October 10th - 14th, the Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed:
- 1,328 likely voters in Georgia with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points;
- 1,031 likely voters in North Carolina with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, - (NC) Cornel West the Justice For All Party candidate, and Randall Terry the Constitution Party candidate, - for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Harris 45% 49% Trump 52 47 Stein 1 - Oliver 1 1 West na - Terry na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 1 1 -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Harris 46% 50% Trump 52 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 1 1 -
Question 2_NConly. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Stein the Democrat, Mark Robinson the Republican, Wayne Turner the Green Party candidate, Mike Ross the Libertarian Party candidate, and Vinny Smith the Constitution Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Stein - 52% Robinson - 40 Turner - 1 Ross - 2 Smith - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 2 REFUSED - 1 -
Question 2a_NConly. If the only candidates were Josh Stein the Democrat and Mark Robinson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Stein or Robinson q2. Respondents who named Stein or Robinson in q2 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Stein - 54% Robinson - 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 2 REFUSED - 2 -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC In person 37% 36% Mail/Absentee ballot 9 8 Early voting loc 52 53 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 2 3 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Favorable 44% 48% Unfavorable 51 49 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 REFUSED 1 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Favorable 51% 46% Unfavorable 46 51 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 REFUSED 2 1 -
Question 6. Would you say that - Kamala Harris is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 42% 49% No 50 47 DK/NA 7 4 -
Question 7. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 44% 41% No 51 56 DK/NA 5 3 -
Question 8. Would you say that - Kamala Harris cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 47% 50% No 50 48 DK/NA 4 2 -
Question 9. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 52% 47% No 46 51 DK/NA 3 2 -
Question 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 55% 51% Harris 43 48 DK/NA 2 2 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling immigration: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 57% 50% Harris 41 47 DK/NA 2 3 -
Question 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - preserving democracy in the United States: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 51% 47% Harris 46 51 DK/NA 3 2 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 44% 42% Harris 50 52 DK/NA 7 6 -
Question 14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling an emergency in the United States: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 53% 48% Harris 44 51 DK/NA 3 1 -
Question 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling a crisis that put the country at great risk: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 54% 48% Harris 44 51 DK/NA 2 1