Swing State Poll 2024: Michigan, Wisconsin: Gender Divide Defines Tight Races In Rust Belt Battlegrounds, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Dem Holds Lead In MI, Very Close In WI
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MICHIGAN: Harris 49%, Trump 46%, other candidates 2%
WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
With all eyes on the swing states that are key to winning the 2024 presidential election, Michigan and Wisconsin show races between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump that are too close to call with less than two weeks until Election Day, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.
There is a pronounced gender gap.
In Michigan, women 57 - 37 percent back Harris, while men 56 - 40 percent back Trump.
In Wisconsin, women 57 - 39 percent back Harris, while men 59 - 38 percent back Trump.
"It's the battle of the sexes and it's no game. There is a glaring gap in Michigan and Wisconsin between the number of women supporting Harris and the number of men supporting Trump. On November 5th, it will all come down to who shows up," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling...
The economy:
- MI: 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
- WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.
Immigration:
- MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
- WI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.
Preserving democracy in the United States:
- MI: 45 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
- WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris.
Abortion:
- MI: 37 percent say Trump, while 56 percent say Harris;
- WI: 40 percent say Trump, while 54 percent say Harris.
The conflict in the Middle East:
- MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
- WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.
A crisis that put the country at great risk:
- MI: 48 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
- WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: HONESTY & EMPATHY
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump are honest:
MI:
- Harris: 46 percent say yes, 48 percent say no;
- Trump: 39 percent say yes; 59 percent say no.
WI:
- Harris: 48 percent say yes, 48 percent say no;
- Trump: 40 percent say yes, 56 percent say no.
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump care about the needs and problems of people like them:
MI:
- Harris: 49 percent say yes, 48 percent say no;
- Trump: 45 percent say yes, 54 percent say no.
WI:
- Harris: 52 percent say yes, 45 percent say no;
- Trump: 47 percent say yes, 51 percent say no.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of...
Kamala Harris:
- MI: 48 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable;
- WI: 46 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable.
Donald Trump:
- MI: 46 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable;
- WI: 47 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable.
MICHIGAN: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Michigan, Harris receives 49 percent support among likely voters, Trump receives 46 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll when Trump received 50 percent support, Harris received 47 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and West each received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats 96 - 3 percent back Harris, while Republicans 94 - 4 percent back Trump. Independents are divided, with 46 percent backing Harris, 44 percent backing Trump, and 5 percent backing independent or third-party candidates (4 percent back Stein and 1 percent back West). One percent of independents volunteered someone else, 2 percent are undecided, and 3 percent refused to respond.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Harris receives 50 percent support and Trump receives 46 percent support.
"Trump has an edge on some key issues and Harris on key traits. In a race that is so close, the question is: which will be more important to tip the scale?" added Malloy.
MICHIGAN: U.S. SENATE RACE
In the U.S. Senate race in Michigan, Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin holds a lead, with 52 percent support among likely voters and former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers receiving 44 percent support.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll when Slotkin and Rogers were tied, with each receiving 48 percent support among likely voters.
WISCONSIN: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Wisconsin, the presidential race is tied, with Harris receiving 48 percent support among likely voters and Trump receiving 48 percent support in a multi-candidate race with all listed third-party candidates each receiving less than 1 percent support.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll when Trump received 48 percent support, Harris received 46 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats 97 - 2 percent back Harris, while Republicans 96 - 3 percent back Trump. Independents are divided, with 49 percent backing Trump, 46 percent backing Harris, and 3 percent backing third-party candidates (1 percent backing Stein, 1 percent backing Oliver, and 1 percent backing Justice for All Party candidate Cornel West). One percent of independents volunteered someone else, 2 percent are undecided, and 1 percent refused to respond.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Harris receives 48 percent support and Trump receives 48 percent support.
"Will blue collar workers make Wisconsin a blue state on November 5th? Union workers, a backbone of the workforce, show very strong support for the Harris ticket over the Trump ticket," added Malloy.
WISCONSIN: U.S. SENATE RACE
In the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin receives 49 percent support among likely voters and Republican challenger Eric Hovde receives 48 percent support, making the race too close to call.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll when Baldwin received 50 percent support and Hovde received 46 percent support.
From October 17th - 21st, the Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed:
- 1,136 likely voters in Michigan with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points;
- 1,108 likely voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, - (MI) Cornel West running as an independent candidate, and Randall Terry the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan candidate / (WI) Cornel West the Justice For All Party candidate, Randall Terry the Constitution Party candidate, and Claudia De la Cruz the Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate, - for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Harris 49% 48% Trump 46 48 Stein 1 - Oliver - - West 1 - Terry - - De la Cruz na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 2 1 -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Harris 50% 48% Trump 46 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 2 2 -
Question 2_MIonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Elissa Slotkin the Democrat and Mike Rogers the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Slotkin 52% - Rogers 44 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - REFUSED 2 - -
Question 2_WIonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Eric Hovde the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Baldwin - 49% Hovde - 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 1 REFUSED - 1 -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, - (WI) or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot? (MI) vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI In person 40% 64% Mail/Absentee ballot 44 33 Early voting loc 16 na WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 1 2 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Favorable 48% 46% Unfavorable 48 48 Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 REFUSED 1 2 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Favorable 46% 47% Unfavorable 52 49 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 REFUSED 1 2 -
Question 6. Would you say that - Kamala Harris is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Yes 46% 48% No 48 48 DK/NA 6 4 -
Question 7. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Yes 39% 40% No 59 56 DK/NA 2 4 -
Question 8. Would you say that - Kamala Harris cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Yes 49% 52% No 48 45 DK/NA 3 3 -
Question 9. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Yes 45% 47% No 54 51 DK/NA 1 2 -
Question 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Trump 51% 52% Harris 47 47 DK/NA 2 2 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling immigration: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Trump 52% 53% Harris 45 44 DK/NA 3 3 -
Question 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - preserving democracy in the United States: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Trump 45% 47% Harris 52 50 DK/NA 3 3 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Trump 37% 40% Harris 56 54 DK/NA 7 6 -
Question 14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the conflict in the Middle East: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Trump 49% 52% Harris 47 44 DK/NA 4 4 -
Question 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling a crisis that put the country at great risk: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS MI WI Trump 48% 51% Harris 50 46 DK/NA 2 3