NYC Mayor's Race: Mamdani 43%, Cuomo 33%, Sliwa 14%, Undecided 6%, Quinnipiac University New York City Poll Finds; Stark Generational Divide Among NYC's Likely Voters
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In the final days of the race to become New York City's next mayor, Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani leads with 43 percent support among likely voters, independent candidate Andrew Cuomo receives 33 percent support, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa receives 14 percent support, while 6 percent are undecided and 3 percent refuse to respond, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University New York City poll of likely voters released today.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll when Mamdani received 46 percent support among likely voters, Cuomo received 33 percent support, Sliwa received 15 percent support, 3 percent were undecided, and 2 percent refused to respond.
In today's poll, among Democrats, 59 percent back Mamdani, 31 percent back Cuomo, 4 percent back Sliwa, 3 percent are undecided, and 2 percent refuse to respond.
Among Republicans, 45 percent back Cuomo, 44 percent back Sliwa, 5 percent back Mamdani, and 5 percent are undecided.
Among independents, 34 percent back Cuomo, 34 percent back Mamdani, 18 percent back Sliwa, 10 percent are undecided, and 4 percent refuse to respond.
"The candidates have made their case, early voting is underway, Zohran Mamdani has a 10-point lead over Andrew Cuomo with Curtis Sliwa a distant third, but one wildcard remains. The percentage of likely voters not weighing in has increased a bit since earlier this month, suggesting there's room for movement in the final stretch," said Mary Snow, Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director.
AGE BREAKDOWN
There is a divide among New York City's likely voters by age:
- 18 to 34 year olds: 64 percent back Mamdani, 20 percent back Cuomo, 7 percent back Sliwa, and 8 percent are undecided;
- 35 to 49 year olds: 50 percent back Mamdani, 25 percent back Cuomo, 13 percent back Sliwa, and 7 percent are undecided;
- 50 to 64 year olds: 41 percent back Cuomo, 35 percent back Mamdani, 17 percent back Sliwa, and 3 percent are undecided;
- 65 years of age and over: 39 percent back Cuomo, 33 percent back Mamdani, 19 percent back Sliwa, and 4 percent are undecided.
"Mamdani is the clear favorite among younger voters while the race is much closer among voters 50 and over as Cuomo and Sliwa fare better among older voters," added Snow.
MINDS MADE UP
Likely voters were asked how likely it is that they will change their minds about their choice for mayor before the election:
Among likely voters backing Mamdani, 92 percent say it is either not so likely (15 percent) or not likely at all (77 percent) that they will change their minds, while 7 percent say it is either somewhat likely (6 percent) or very likely (1 percent).
Among likely voters backing Cuomo, 90 percent say it is either not so likely (15 percent) or not likely at all (75 percent) that they will change their minds, while 9 percent say it is either somewhat likely (7 percent) or very likely (2 percent).
Among likely voters backing Sliwa, 81 percent say it is either not so likely (15 percent) or not likely at all (66 percent) that they will change their minds, while 19 percent say it is either somewhat likely (15 percent) or very likely (4 percent).
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates:
- Zohran Mamdani: 45 percent favorable, 41 percent unfavorable, 11 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Andrew Cuomo: 34 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 8 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Curtis Sliwa: 29 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable, 30 percent haven't heard enough about him.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Given a list of nine issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the election for NYC mayor, 26 percent of likely voters say crime, 19 percent say affordable housing, 13 percent say inflation, and 10 percent say health care, with no other issue reaching double digits.
Among Democrats, affordable housing (25 percent) tops the list, followed by crime (18 percent), inflation (13 percent), and health care (11 percent), with no other issue reaching double digits.
Among Republicans, crime (52 percent) tops the list, followed by inflation (10 percent), with no other issue reaching double digits.
Among independents, crime (28 percent) tops the list, followed by inflation (16 percent), affordable housing (15 percent), and health care (11 percent), with no other issue reaching double digits.
911 New York City likely voters were surveyed from October 23rd - 27th with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo running as an independent candidate, Zohran Mamdani the Democrat, and Curtis Sliwa the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS..................................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Asn Cuomo 33% 45% 31% 34% 32% 34% 39% 33% 30% 22% Mamdani 43 5 59 34 45 41 34 48 43 61 Sliwa 14 44 4 18 18 11 19 6 13 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 6 5 3 10 3 9 4 10 12 4 REFUSED 3 - 2 4 1 5 3 3 2 1 AREA............................. AGE IN YRS.............. Brnx Bklyn Man Qns StIsl 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Cuomo 32% 38% 29% 31% 27% 20% 25% 41% 39% Mamdani 44 39 52 42 33 64 50 35 33 Sliwa 16 13 8 17 29 7 13 17 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 4 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 8 6 6 5 4 8 7 3 4 REFUSED - 3 4 4 3 - 4 3 3 RELIGION......................... Prot Cath Jewish Other None Cuomo 44% 33% 60% 28% 18% Mamdani 36 28 16 50 71 Sliwa 17 31 12 8 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 3 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 4 8 10 4 REFUSED - 5 1 4 - MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOUR VOTE Q5 Affordable Inflation Housing Crime Cuomo 32% 17% 53% Mamdani 46 76 8 Sliwa 15 3 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 5 1 5 REFUSED 2 2 2 VOTE STATUS... 1stTime Alrdy NtAlrdy VoteMayor Voted Voted Cuomo 26% 27% 33% Mamdani 55 53 42 Sliwa 7 12 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 11 - 7 REFUSED 1 8 3 HOW LONG LIVED IN NYC... Whole Over10 10orFewer Life Years Years Cuomo 34% 33% 23% Mamdani 36 46 68 Sliwa 19 12 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 6 7 6 REFUSED 4 2 - -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS.................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1.... Tot Cuomo Mamdani Sliwa Very enthusiastic 47% 34% 54% 58% Smwht enthusiastic 37 37 39 31 Not so enthusiastic 9 15 5 5 Not enthus at all 5 11 - 5 DK/NA 3 4 2 2 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for mayor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS.................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1.... Tot Cuomo Mamdani Sliwa Very likely 2% 2% 1% 4% Somewhat likely 8 7 6 15 Not so likely 15 15 15 15 Not likely at all 75 75 77 66 DK/NA 1 2 1 - -
Question 1c. (If candidate chosen q1 and not already voted) Who is your second choice?
LIKELY VOTERS...................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 & NOT YET VOTED CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1.... Tot Cuomo Mamdani Sliwa Cuomo 21% - 27% 55% Mamdani 8 20 - 7 Sliwa 22 38 16 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 6 7 8 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 24 20 29 17 REFUSED 18 15 19 20 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Zohran Mamdani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS..................................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Asn Favorable 45% 5% 59% 41% 45% 45% 35% 53% 48% 59% Unfavorable 41 89 26 45 44 37 59 20 37 24 Hvn't hrd enough 11 6 11 14 9 14 4 24 13 14 REFUSED 3 - 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 AREA............................. AGE IN YRS.............. Brnx Bklyn Man Qns StIsl 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 46% 40% 56% 46% 31% 62% 52% 42% 33% Unfavorable 37 45 32 39 64 25 35 48 47 Hvn't hrd enough 14 12 8 14 2 12 10 9 16 REFUSED 2 3 4 1 3 1 4 1 5 RELIGION......................... Prot Cath Jewish Other None Favorable 38% 32% 15% 54% 70% Unfavorable 49 55 75 25 21 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 8 18 8 REFUSED 1 4 2 3 1 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Curtis Sliwa favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS..................................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Asn Favorable 29% 62% 21% 30% 36% 24% 37% 23% 25% 25% Unfavorable 38 16 46 37 36 40 42 37 33 33 Hvn't hrd enough 30 21 30 32 26 33 19 38 39 39 REFUSED 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 3 AREA............................. AGE IN YRS.............. Brnx Bklyn Man Qns StIsl 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 28% 26% 23% 36% 44% 16% 20% 44% 40% Unfavorable 35 38 46 33 38 32 47 34 41 Hvn't hrd enough 34 32 28 29 14 50 30 21 17 REFUSED 3 3 3 1 4 2 3 1 3 RELIGION......................... Prot Cath Jewish Other None Favorable 28% 47% 31% 26% 18% Unfavorable 46 28 37 32 48 Hvn't hrd enough 24 23 29 38 32 REFUSED 1 2 4 5 2 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS..................................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Asn Favorable 34% 32% 36% 34% 30% 37% 30% 49% 38% 23% Unfavorable 54 51 56 51 61 47 63 33 48 60 Hvn't hrd enough 8 13 6 10 6 10 4 13 6 15 REFUSED 4 4 2 5 2 6 3 5 8 2 AREA............................. AGE IN YRS.............. Brnx Bklyn Man Qns StIsl 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 42% 34% 28% 33% 32% 16% 24% 42% 51% Unfavorable 47 53 62 51 55 68 66 50 38 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 4 12 3 15 7 4 6 REFUSED 2 3 5 4 10 1 3 4 6 RELIGION......................... Prot Cath Jewish Other None Favorable 50% 36% 39% 33% 24% Unfavorable 44 54 50 44 68 Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 7 16 7 REFUSED 3 5 4 7 2 -
Question 5. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for mayor: inflation, unemployment, homelessness, immigration, health care, racial inequality, schools, affordable housing, or crime?
LIKELY VOTERS..................................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Asn Inflation 13% 10% 13% 16% 13% 13% 9% 11% 15% 17% Unemployment 3 4 2 6 6 1 1 4 5 8 Homelessness 4 5 4 5 3 5 3 7 7 4 Immigration 6 8 5 6 5 6 6 5 4 8 Health care 10 3 11 11 5 14 9 15 7 9 Racial inequality 6 2 9 3 5 7 3 10 7 9 Schools 6 7 5 7 5 8 6 3 9 7 Affordable housing 19 6 25 15 21 17 18 26 17 16 Crime 26 52 18 28 29 23 37 9 24 18 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 3 4 3 5 3 4 6 4 - DK/NA 3 - 4 1 4 2 3 3 1 3 AREA............................. AGE IN YRS.............. Brnx Bklyn Man Qns StIsl 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Inflation 17% 11% 7% 18% 14% 13% 12% 16% 8% Unemployment 4 3 2 5 1 4 5 2 3 Homelessness 5 2 8 4 3 4 4 3 7 Immigration 2 6 4 8 9 5 5 9 4 Health care 9 9 10 10 15 7 11 7 13 Racial inequality 9 6 4 6 8 5 5 9 6 Schools 4 6 10 4 8 6 8 5 3 Affordable housing 16 21 24 15 9 30 24 12 15 Crime 23 31 22 23 33 22 21 30 31 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 9 4 3 3 1 1 4 4 5 DK/NA 2 1 6 4 - 2 2 3 4 RELIGION......................... Prot Cath Jewish Other None Inflation 16% 19% 4% 13% 15% Unemployment 7 3 1 4 4 Homelessness 3 5 2 5 5 Immigration 6 7 3 4 7 Health care 13 8 7 8 11 Racial inequality 12 5 3 7 6 Schools 3 3 8 8 7 Affordable housing 12 15 16 23 26 Crime 23 33 48 18 15 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 7 6 2 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 2