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NYC Mayor's Race: Adams Exits, Cuomo Gains, Mamdani Up By Double Digits, Quinnipiac University New York City Poll Finds; Who Would Best Represent NYC's Interests Under Trump? Mamdani & Cuomo Essentially Tied

Now that New York City's mayoral race is down to three candidates after Mayor Eric Adams dropped out, Democrat Zohran Mamdani leads the race with 46 percent of likely voters backing him, followed by independent candidate Andrew Cuomo with 33 percent support and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa with 15 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea- ack) University New York City poll of likely voters released today.

This compares to Quinnipiac University's New York City poll on September 10 when it was a 4-way race with Mamdani receiving 45 percent support, Cuomo receiving 23 percent support, Sliwa receiving 15 percent support, and Adams receiving 12 percent support.

In today's poll, Mamdani's strongest support is among Democrats (60 percent), Asian American voters (67 percent), voters 18 to 34 years old (62 percent), voters 35 to 49 years old (60 percent), and voters who identify as not being part of any religious group (69 percent).

Cuomo's strongest support is among Jewish voters (60 percent).

Sliwa's strongest support is among Republicans (54 percent).

"The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven't. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams' supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani's lead, but Mamdani's frontrunner status by double digits stays intact," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow.

ENTHUSIASM

Likely voters were asked about their enthusiasm level for their chosen candidate.

Among likely voters backing Mamdani, 90 percent say they are either very enthusiastic (56 percent) or somewhat enthusiastic (34 percent).

Among likely voters backing Sliwa, 85 percent say they are either very enthusiastic (52 percent) or somewhat enthusiastic (33 percent).

Among likely voters backing Cuomo, 69 percent say they are either very enthusiastic (28 percent) or somewhat enthusiastic (41 percent).

MINDS MADE UP

Likely voters were asked how likely it is that they will change their minds about their choice for mayor before the election.

Among likely voters backing Mamdani, 87 percent say it is either not so likely (18 percent) or not likely at all (69 percent) that they will change their minds, while 12 percent say it is either somewhat likely (10 percent) or very likely (2 percent).

Among likely voters backing Sliwa, 81 percent say it is either not so likely (24 percent) or not likely at all (57 percent) that they will change their minds, while 17 percent say it is either somewhat likely (13 percent) or very likely (4 percent).

Among likely voters backing Cuomo, 73 percent say it is either not so likely (18 percent) or not likely at all (55 percent) that they will change their minds, while 25 percent say it is either somewhat likely (19 percent) or very likely (6 percent).

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates:

  • Zohran Mamdani: 43 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable, 19 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Andrew Cuomo: 37 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable, 7 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Curtis Sliwa: 27 percent favorable, 40 percent unfavorable, 30 percent haven't heard enough about him.

ETHICS VS. EXPERIENCE

Likely voters were asked whether they would say that the candidates are ethical:

  • Zohran Mamdani: 53 percent say yes, 28 percent say no, with 19 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Curtis Sliwa: 41 percent say yes, 26 percent say no, with 33 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Andrew Cuomo: 34 percent say yes, 54 percent say no, with 13 percent not offering an opinion.

Likely voters were asked whether they would say that the candidates have the right kind of experience to be mayor of New York City:

  • Andrew Cuomo: 73 percent say yes, 22 percent say no, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Zohran Mamdani: 39 percent say yes, 47 percent say no, with 15 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Curtis Sliwa: 24 percent say yes, 55 percent say no, with 21 percent not offering an opinion.

HANDLING OF ISSUES

Likely voters were asked, regardless of how they intend to vote, who they think would do the best job of...

  • Lowering housing costs in New York City: 48 percent say Mamdani, 25 percent say Cuomo, 13 percent say Sliwa, with 14 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Managing the city's public schools: 41 percent say Mamdani, 36 percent say Cuomo, 16 percent say Sliwa, with 8 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Making sure New York City's interests are best represented with President Trump in the White House: 35 percent say Mamdani, 34 percent say Cuomo, 22 percent say Sliwa, with 9 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Keeping you and your family safe: 35 percent say Mamdani, 32 percent say Cuomo, 23 percent say Sliwa, with 10 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Growing the city's economy: 41 percent say Cuomo, 35 percent say Mamdani, 15 percent say Sliwa, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.
"Much has been said about the issue not on the ballot but looming over the race: President Trump. Both Mamdani and Cuomo make the case they'll be the best guardrail over New York City's interests under Trump. But voters don't see much daylight between them," added Snow.

ISRAEL - HAMAS CONFLICT

Likely voters were asked, regardless of how they intend to vote, who they think has views closest to their own on the Israel - Hamas conflict. Forty-one percent say Mamdani, 26 percent say Cuomo, and 13 percent say Sliwa, with 20 percent not offering an opinion.

Likely voters were asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians based on what they know about the situation in the Middle East. Forty-three percent say the Palestinians, while 22 percent say the Israelis, with 34 percent not offering an opinion.

The poll concluded before President Trump announced the first phase of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU

Likely voters were asked about Zohran Mamdani's pledge that if he is elected New York City mayor, he will honor a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court by ordering the New York City Police Department to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits New York City. Forty-three percent of likely voters oppose Mamdani's pledge, while 38 percent support it, with 19 percent not offering an opinion.

1,015 New York City likely voters were surveyed from October 3rd - 7th with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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