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Georgia Potential November Showdowns: They're Already Close, Quinnipiac University Georgia Poll Finds; Only 25% Are Very Confident In Accurate 2022 Election Count

With Georgia in the national spotlight over its election laws along with two high profile contests in November 2022, hypothetical matchups in the races for U.S. Senate and for Governor show a potential repeat of razor thin contests.

REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES

The Republican primary for governor shows a competitive race with 43 percent of likely Republican primary voters backing incumbent Governor Brian Kemp and 36 percent backing former Senator David Perdue, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University Georgia poll released today. Candidate Vernon Jones receives 10 percent support, Kandiss Taylor 4 percent, Catherine Davis 1 percent, and 5 percent remain undecided.

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, former NFL player and Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker receives 81 percent support, leaving the other candidates very far behind. Gary Black receives 6 percent, Kelvin King 2 percent, with all other candidates receiving 1 percent or less. Eight percent remain undecided.

Former President Donald Trump has endorsed both Herschel Walker and David Perdue in the Republican primary races. Half (50 percent) of likely Republican primary voters say if Trump endorses a candidate, it does not make a difference to them, 44 percent say they are more likely to vote for that candidate, and 5 percent say they are less likely to vote for that candidate.

RACE FOR GOVERNOR: GENERAL ELECTION

In a hypothetical matchup between incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams, registered voters are almost evenly split, giving Kemp 49 percent and Abrams 47 percent. In 2018, Abrams lost to Kemp by 1.4 percentage points.

In a hypothetical matchup between former Republican Senator David Perdue and Democrat Stacey Abrams, registered voters are evenly split, giving Perdue 48 percent and Abrams 48 percent.

"With former Senator Perdue and current Governor Kemp doing verbal battle, Stacey Abrams, so close in 2018, is running neck and neck with both potential opponents, positioning herself once again to possibly become Georgia's first African American governor," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Voters have a mixed opinion of Abrams: 44 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable, and 10 percent haven't heard enough.

Voters have an unfavorable opinion of both Perdue (37 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable, and 20 percent haven't heard enough) and Kemp (36 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable, and 11 percent haven't heard enough).

U.S. SENATE RACE: GENERAL ELECTION

In a hypothetical matchup in the race for U.S. Senate in Georgia between incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, voters give Walker 49 percent and Warnock 48 percent. Warnock won a Senate special runoff election in 2021 by 2 percentage points.

Voters have a mixed opinion of Warnock: 44 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable, and 13 percent haven't heard enough.

Voters have a favorable opinion of Walker: 42 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable, and 30 percent haven't heard enough.

JOB APPROVALS

Forty-two percent of Georgia registered voters approve of the way Brian Kemp is handling his job as Governor, while 49 percent disapprove with 9 percent not offering an opinion.

Job approval ratings for other Georgia elected officials:

  • Senator Raphael Warnock: 47 percent approve, 40 percent disapprove, with 13 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Senator Jon Ossoff: 42 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove, with 17 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger: 36 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove, with 26 percent not offering an opinion.

Voters in Georgia give President Joe Biden a negative 36 - 59 percent job approval rating, with 5 percent not offering an opinion.

MOST URGENT ISSUE

Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Georgia today, inflation (23 percent) and election laws (22 percent) top the list, followed by COVID-19 (13 percent) and crime (11 percent). There are sharp divides along party lines.

Among Republicans, the most urgent issues are inflation (34 percent), election laws (18 percent), and crime (16 percent).

Among Democrats, the most urgent issues are election laws (31 percent), COVID-19 (19 percent), followed by inflation (9 percent) and racial inequality (9 percent).

Among independents, the most urgent issues are inflation (26 percent), election laws (18 percent), and crime (12 percent).

VOTING IN GEORGIA

Overall, voters of all stripes agree on the ease of voting in the 2020 general elections in Georgia. More than three-quarters (78 percent) say it was very easy to vote in the 2020 general elections.

Looking ahead to the 2022 general elections, 61 percent of registered voters expect it will be very easy to vote, but there are wide differences by party and race. Eighty-five percent of Republicans expect it will be very easy to vote in Georgia in 2022, versus 60 percent of independents and 41 percent of Democrats. Among Black registered voters, only 40 percent expect it to be very easy to vote in 2022, while 73 percent of white registered voters expect it to be very easy.

When registered voters were asked how confident they are that the votes across Georgia will be counted accurately in 2022, just one-quarter (25 percent) say they are very confident, 37 percent say they are somewhat confident, 21 percent say they are not so confident, and 15 percent say they are not confident at all.

"Will my vote count? In Georgia, that bedrock American right is hardly a given, with many voters not entirely sure," added Malloy.

When registered voters were asked how confident they are that all eligible citizens in Georgia will have a fair opportunity to vote in the 2022 general elections, 42 percent say they are very confident, 25 percent say somewhat confident, 18 percent say not so confident, and 14 percent say not confident at all.

Republicans (70 percent) say they are very confident that all eligible citizens in Georgia will have a fair opportunity to vote in the 2022 general elections, while 42 percent of independents and 13 percent of Democrats are very confident. Among white voters, 54 percent say they are very confident compared to only 18 percent of Black voters.

For the general elections, a slight majority of voters (52 percent) expect to vote in person at an early voting location, 30 percent expect to vote in person on Election Day, and 15 percent expect to vote by mail or absentee ballot.

1,702 registered voters, including 666 likely Republican primary voters, in Georgia were surveyed from January 19th - 24th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 3.8 percentage points for likely Republican primary voters.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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