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Wisconsin 2024: Biden Leads Trump In 2-Way Race, It's Neck And Neck When Ballot Includes Third-Party Candidates, Quinnipiac University Wisconsin Poll Finds; Voters 50 - 38% Oppose Campus Protests Over Israel's Actions In Gaza

President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump 50 - 44 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Wisconsin released today.

Democrats (97 - 2 percent) and independents (50 - 43 percent) back Biden, while Republicans (95 - 3 percent) back Trump.

When the matchup is expanded to include independent and Green Party candidates, the race is too close to call. Biden receives 40 percent support, Trump receives 39 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 12 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 4 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 1 percent support.

Among voters who support Biden in the head-to-head matchup, 80 percent support him in the 5-way race, 11 percent support Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 7 percent support Jill Stein, and 2 percent support Cornel West.

Among voters who support Trump in the head-to-head matchup, 87 percent support him in the 5-way race, 10 percent support Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 1 percent support Cornel West, and 1 percent support Jill Stein.

"While the modest lead for Biden in the head-to-head will certainly resonate with his base, when all the candidates are thrown into the mix the race between Biden and Trump is basically a tie," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES

Voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling six issues...

  • abortion: 54 percent say Biden, while 36 percent say Trump;
  • preserving democracy in the United States: 51 percent say Biden, while 42 percent say Trump;
  • international conflicts: 48 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Biden;
  • the response to the Israel - Hamas war in Gaza: 45 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Biden;
  • the economy: 52 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Biden;
  • immigration: 51 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Biden.

U.S. SENATE RACE

Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde 54 - 42 percent in the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin.

Democrats (98 - 1 percent) and independents (52 - 40 percent) back Baldwin, while Republicans (91 - 8 percent) back Hovde.

Nearly half of voters (49 percent) have a favorable opinion of Baldwin, while 35 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 15 percent say they haven't heard enough about her.

Twenty-three percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Hovde, while 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 50 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.

"Incumbent Tammy Baldwin is in a solid position, leaving challenger Eric Hovde having to cut into a double-digit deficit in a critical U.S. Senate race," added Malloy.

CAMPUS PROTESTS

Voters 50 - 38 percent oppose the student protests being held on college and university campuses responding to Israel's actions in Gaza, with 11 percent not offering an opinion.

Republicans (79 - 9 percent) and independents (51 - 38 percent) oppose the protests, while Democrats (64 - 28 percent) support them.

Among voters 18 - 34 years old, a majority (63 percent) support the protests, while 28 percent oppose the protests.

Voters 61 - 33 percent disapprove of student protesters setting up encampments on college campuses as a form of protest.

Among voters 18 - 34 years old, a majority (60 percent) approve of student protestors setting up encampments on college campuses as a form of protest, while 32 percent disapprove.

Voters 51 - 41 percent think students who refuse to take down the encampments should be arrested.

Among voters 18 - 34 years old, a majority (67 percent) think students who refuse to take down the encampments should not be arrested, while 28 percent think they should be arrested.

A vast majority of voters (73 percent) think the protests will not make a difference, 13 percent think the protests will help Palestinians in Gaza, and 7 percent think the protests will hurt Palestinians in Gaza.

"With the exception of young people and Democrats, Wisconsin voters take a hardline on student protests with a stern warning: if you set up camp and then refuse to leave, you deserve to be arrested. And for all the risks demonstrators are taking, a vast majority of voters think it will make no difference to the people of Gaza," added Malloy.

MOST URGENT ISSUE

Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, the economy (24 percent) tops the list, followed by immigration (20 percent) and preserving democracy in the United States (20 percent).

ECONOMY

Thirty-four percent of voters describe the state of the nation's economy these days as either excellent (4 percent) or good (30 percent), while a majority of voters (65 percent) describe it as either not so good (27 percent) or poor (38 percent).

Nearly half of voters (49 percent) think the nation's economy is getting worse, 30 percent think it's staying about the same, and 20 percent think it's getting better.

Sixty-five percent of voters describe their financial situation these days as either excellent (11 percent) or good (54 percent), while 34 percent describe it as either not so good (23 percent) or poor (11 percent).

A majority of voters (61 percent) think their income is not keeping up with the cost of living, while 36 percent think their income is keeping up with the cost of living.

"Their paychecks vs. what they need to live the life they want to live, 'we're not keeping up,' say Wisconsinites," added Malloy.

A plurality of voters (47 percent) say they are worse off financially today than they were in 2020, while 41 percent say they are better off, and 10 percent volunteer they are the same.

STUDENT LOAN DEBT

Nearly half of voters (49 percent) think cancelling student loan debt for college students in Wisconsin is a bad idea, while 45 percent think it is a good idea.

ABORTION

Sixty-seven percent of voters think abortion should be legal in either all cases (30 percent) or most cases (37 percent), while 28 percent of voters think abortion should be illegal in either most cases (22 percent) or all cases (6 percent).

Eighty-three percent of voters think abortion should be legal when the pregnancy was caused by rape or incest, while 11 percent think abortion should be illegal in that situation.

Ninety-one percent of voters think abortion should be legal when it is necessary to save the life of the mother, while 5 percent think abortion should be illegal in that situation.

JOB APPROVALS

Voters give President Joe Biden a negative 39 - 58 percent job approval rating.

Voters give Governor Tony Evers a positive 53 - 37 percent job approval rating.

Voters give Senator Tammy Baldwin a positive 53 - 36 percent job approval rating.

Voters give Senator Ron Johnson a negative 39 - 48 percent job approval rating.

1,457 Wisconsin self-identified registered voters were surveyed from May 2nd - 6th with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

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