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2024 Race: Biden-Trump Matchup Margin Razor Thin With Nearly 1 In 5 Voters Likely To Change Their Minds, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; More Than 7 In 10 Voters Plan To Watch June Debate

As the presidential candidates prepare to debate next month for the first time in the 2024 election cycle, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in a neck-and-neck race with Biden receiving 48 percent support and Trump receiving 47 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.

When independent and Green Party candidates are added to the presidential matchup, Biden receives 41 percent support, Trump receives 38 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2 percent support.

There is no clear leader in either of these matchups as the leads are within the margin of error, making the race too close to call.

CHANGING MINDS BEFORE ELECTION

Nineteen percent of voters who chose a candidate in the matchup with third-party candidates say it is either very likely (3 percent) or somewhat likely (16 percent) that they will change their minds about their choice for president before the election, while 80 percent say it is either not so likely (12 percent) or not likely at all (68 percent) that they will change their minds before the election.

Among voters supporting Biden, 15 percent say it is either very likely (3 percent) or somewhat likely (12 percent) that they will change their minds, while 84 percent say it is either not so likely (9 percent) or not likely at all (75 percent).

Among voters supporting Trump, 8 percent say it is somewhat likely that they will change their minds, while 92 percent say it is either not so likely (13 percent) or not likely at all (79 percent).

Among voters supporting Kennedy, 52 percent say it is either very likely (11 percent) or somewhat likely (41 percent) that they will change their minds, while 46 percent say it is either not so likely (16 percent) or not likely at all (30 percent).

"Call them fair weather, call them unsure. A sizeable block of registered voters is still juggling candidates, with Kennedy voters particularly swayable and Trump voters less inclined to bail on their candidate," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

  • Donald Trump: 41 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 4 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Joe Biden: 40 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 3 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 25 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable, 30 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Cornel West: 9 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable, 71 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Jill Stein: 7 percent favorable, 22 percent unfavorable, 70 percent haven't heard enough about her.

MOST URGENT ISSUE

Given a list of 11 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, the economy (28 percent) tops the list, followed by preserving democracy in the United States (21 percent) and immigration (16 percent).

BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES

Voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling six issues...

  • the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 49 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Biden;
  • preserving democracy in the United States: 50 percent say Biden, while 43 percent say Trump;
  • the response to the Israel - Hamas war in Gaza: 50 percent say Trump, while 40 percent say Biden;
  • immigration: 52 percent say Trump, while 41 percent say Biden;
  • the economy: 54 percent say Trump, while 42 percent say Biden;
  • abortion: 53 percent say Biden, while 37 percent say Trump.

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL

Voters give President Biden a negative 39 - 56 percent job approval rating, an improvement from a negative 35 - 61 percent job approval rating in Quinnipiac University's April 24 poll.

JUNE DEBATE

More than 7 in 10 voters (72 percent) think it is likely that they will watch the televised debate between President Biden and former President Trump scheduled for late June, while 27 percent of voters think it is unlikely that they will watch the debate.

"Get out the popcorn, pull up a chair, it is must see TV and if the past is any indication, the gloves will likely come off early and often," added Malloy.

TRUMP TRIAL IN NYC

More than a month after former President Trump's criminal trial began in New York City in connection with charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress, 70 percent of voters say they are following news regarding the trial either very closely (32 percent) or somewhat closely (38 percent), while 30 percent say they are following it not too closely.

Six in 10 voters (60 percent) think the charges against Trump in this trial are either very serious (37 percent) or somewhat serious (23 percent), while 36 percent think the charges are either not too serious (11 percent) or not serious at all (25 percent).

Forty-six percent of voters believe Trump did something illegal, while 29 percent believe he did something unethical but nothing illegal, and 21 percent believe he did not do anything wrong.

Voters were asked how it would impact their vote if Trump were convicted in this case. Among Trump voters, 6 percent say if he were convicted they would be less likely to vote for him, 24 percent say they would be more likely to vote for him, and 68 percent say it would not make a difference to their vote.

"Will a conviction sink Trump? The vast majority of his supporters say it would be no big deal. But in an extremely tight race, that 6 percent could tip the balance," added Malloy.

RFK, JR.

Following reports that more than a decade ago independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. contracted a parasitic worm that ended up in his brain from which his campaign says he made a full recovery, when asked whether voters are concerned about Kennedy's fitness to serve as president, they say 65 - 30 percent that they are not concerned.

ISRAEL - HAMAS WAR IN GAZA

Voters 43 - 35 percent disapprove of the way Israel is responding to the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack. In Quinnipiac University's December 20, 2023 poll, voters were split, with 43 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving.

Voters 49 - 43 percent oppose the United States sending more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas.

Voters were asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians. Forty-six percent of voters say the Israelis, 29 percent say the Palestinians, and 25 percent did not offer an opinion.

Roughly 4 out of 10 voters (38 percent) think the United States is doing too little to provide humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, while 37 percent think the U.S. is doing about the right amount, and 13 percent think the U.S. is doing too much.

Voters 55 - 36 percent oppose the student protests being held on college and university campuses responding to Israel's actions in Gaza.

PREJUDICE AGAINST JEWISH & MUSLIM AMERICANS

Seventy-four percent of voters think prejudice against Jewish people in the United States today is either a very serious problem (35 percent) or a somewhat serious problem (39 percent), while 21 percent think it is either a not so serious problem (15 percent) or not a problem at all (6 percent).

Sixty-four percent of voters think prejudice against Muslim people in the United States today is either a very serious problem (25 percent) or a somewhat serious problem (39 percent), while 31 percent think it is either a not so serious problem (20 percent) or not a problem at all (11 percent).

UKRAINE

Nearly two-thirds of voters (65 percent) think supporting Ukraine is in the national interest of the United States, while 29 percent think it is not in the national interest of the United States.

A quarter of voters (25 percent) think the United States is doing too little to help Ukraine, 33 percent think the U.S. is doing about the right amount to help Ukraine, and 36 percent think the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine.

Thirteen percent say the United States should do more to support Ukraine, even if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia; while 34 percent say the United States should do more to support Ukraine, but not if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia; and 47 percent say the United States is already doing enough to support Ukraine.

1,374 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from May 16th - 20th with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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