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2024 Race: Trump vs. Harris Too Close To Call, Trump Slightly Ahead In 6-Way Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 62% Say Biden Dropping Out Of Race Right Thing To Do

One day after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Party nominee, 49 percent of voters support former President Donald Trump and 47 percent of voters support Harris, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. There is no clear leader as the lead is within the margin of error.

The poll was conducted from Friday, July 19th through Sunday, July 21st.

Republicans (93 - 4 percent) and independents (55 - 41 percent) support Trump, while Democrats (97 - 2 percent) support Harris.

In a six-way hypothetical race that includes other candidates, Trump has a slight lead with 45 percent support, Harris receives 41 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 6 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support.

In a head-to-head matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump receives 48 percent support and Biden receives 45 percent support.

In a six-way hypothetical race that includes other candidates, Trumps leads with 44 percent support, Biden receives 39 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 8 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support.

"The dramatic reset at the top of the Democratic ticket does little to move the race as Vice President Harris enters the fray with numbers similar to President Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

BIDEN EXITING THE RACE

Sixty-two percent of voters think President Biden dropping out of the presidential race is the right thing to do, while 27 percent think it is the wrong thing to do.

Democrats 54 - 33 percent think Biden dropping out is the right thing to do.

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL

Voters give President Biden a negative 39 - 57 percent job approval rating. This is little changed from Quinnipiac University's June 26 poll when voters gave Biden a negative 38 - 58 percent job approval rating.

PREFERENCE FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Democrats and Democratic leaning voters were given a list of 10 names of possible Democratic candidates for president instead of Joe Biden and asked who they would most like to see win the Democratic nomination for president.

Vice President Kamala Harris tops the list with 45 percent support, California Governor Gavin Newsom receives 12 percent support, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg receives 11 percent support, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer receives 7 percent support, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear each receive 4 percent support, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly receives 3 percent support, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Colorado Governor Jared Polis each receive 1 percent support.

"The list includes several governors, a U.S. Senator, and a cabinet member, but Vice President Harris's standing far eclipses all her potential Democratic rivals," added Malloy.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

  • Donald Trump: 46 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him - the highest favorability rating for Trump since the Quinnipiac University Poll first asked this question of registered voters in May 2015;
  • Joe Biden: 38 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Kamala Harris: 37 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable, 11 percent haven't heard enough about her;
  • J.D. Vance: 29 percent favorable, 37 percent unfavorable, 34 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 23 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable, 30 percent haven't heard enough about him.

VIEWS OF TRUMP

In the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, a majority (53 percent) of voters say Trump's reaction has no impact on their view of him, while 30 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, and 15 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him.

Among independents, 58 percent say it has no impact on their view of Trump, while 30 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, and 11 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him.

Nearly half of voters (49 percent) say Trump's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention has no impact on their view of him, while 25 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, and 20 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him.

After the assassination attempt, former President Trump called for unity in the country. If he is elected president, 48 percent think Trump will increase division in the country, while 42 percent think he will increase unity in the country.

"The former President survives an assassination attempt and gains ground on favorability, but post attack, makes no headway in being seen as a unifier," added Malloy.

J.D. VANCE

Forty-six percent of voters think Donald Trump's selection of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate was a good choice, while 33 percent think it was a bad choice and 21 percent did not offer an opinion.

Among Republicans, 79 percent think Trump's selection was a good choice, while 9 percent think it was a bad choice and 12 percent did not offer an opinion.

ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON TRUMP

A plurality of voters (47 percent) think the Director of the Secret Service should resign over the handling of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, while 36 percent think she should not resign and 17 percent did not offer an opinion.

Voters are evenly split on whether there should be a ban on AR-15 rifles like the one used in the attempted assassination of former President Trump, with 47 percent supporting a ban and 47 percent opposing a ban.

1,257 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from July 19th - 21st with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey included 542 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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