NJ Governor's Race: Sherrill Leads Ciattarelli By 8 Points, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Taxes & Ethics In Government Top List Of Most Important Issues
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In the closely watched race for governor of New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill receives 49 percent support, Republican Jack Ciattarelli receives 41 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan and Socialist Worker Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky each receive 1 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University New Jersey poll of likely voters released today. Six percent are either undecided (4 percent) or did not provide a response (2 percent).
Democrats (93 - 3 percent) back Sherrill, while Republicans (90 - 5 percent) back Ciattarelli. Independents are mixed, with 45 percent backing Sherrill and 41 percent backing Ciattarelli.
Men are mixed, with 48 percent backing Ciattarelli and 44 percent backing Sherrill. Women 55 - 35 percent back Sherrill.
2-WAY RACE
Without third party candidates included, Sherrill would receive 51 percent support among likely voters and Ciattarelli would receive 42 percent support. Seven percent are either undecided (5 percent) or did not provide a response (2 percent).
ENTHUSIASM
Likely voters were asked about their enthusiasm level for their chosen candidate.
Among likely voters backing Ciattarelli, 88 percent say they are either very enthusiastic (48 percent) or somewhat enthusiastic (40 percent).
Among likely voters backing Sherrill, 85 percent say they are either very enthusiastic (37 percent) or somewhat enthusiastic (48 percent).
FAVORABILITY
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Sherrill: 40 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable, 29 percent haven't heard enough about her;
- Ciattarelli: 40 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable, 21 percent haven't heard enough about him.
PERSONAL TRAITS
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that the candidates care about the needs and problems of people like them, have good leadership skills, and are honest.
Cares about the needs and problems of people like you:
- Sherrill: 50 percent say yes, 35 percent say no, 15 percent did not offer an opinion;
- Ciattarelli: 44 percent say yes, 43 percent say no, 13 percent did not offer an opinion.
Good leadership skills:
- Sherrill: 52 percent say yes, 26 percent say no, 22 percent did not offer an opinion;
- Ciattarelli: 44 percent say yes, 35 percent say no, 21 percent did not offer an opinion.
Honest:
- Sherrill: 49 percent say yes, 24 percent say no, 27 percent did not offer an opinion;
- Ciattarelli: 38 percent say yes, 37 percent say no, 26 percent did not offer an opinion.
"With just under seven weeks to go, the race for the Trenton State House leans Sherrill's way as Ciattarelli lags on three key character issues: honesty, empathy and leadership," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Given a list of 11 issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, taxes (30 percent) top the list followed by ethics in government (14 percent), with no other issue reaching double digits.
There are wide differences along party lines.
Among Republicans, taxes (40 percent) top the list, followed by immigration (13 percent) and crime (11 percent).
Among Democrats, the top issues are ethics in government (20 percent), health care (18 percent), taxes (17 percent), and inflation (12 percent).
Among independents, taxes (37 percent) top the list followed by ethics in government (15 percent), with no other issue reaching double digits.
PROPERTY TAXES
Likely voters were asked which candidate they think would do a better job handling property taxes in New Jersey, regardless of how they intend to vote.
Forty-six percent say Ciattarelli, while 40 percent say Sherrill and 14 percent did not offer an opinion.
"With taxes topping the most important issue list, likely Garden State voters see Ciattarelli as slightly better suited to take on the perennial voter worry of property taxes," added Malloy.
ELECTRICITY COSTS
Likely voters were asked which candidate they think would do a better job handling electricity costs in New Jersey, regardless of how they intend to vote.
Forty-two percent say Sherrill, while 40 percent say Ciattarelli and 17 percent did not offer an opinion.
SATISFACTION
Likely voters in New Jersey are split on their satisfaction with the way things are going in the state.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters are either very satisfied (8 percent) or somewhat satisfied (41 percent) with the way things are going in New Jersey today, while 49 percent are either somewhat dissatisfied (22 percent) or very dissatisfied (27 percent).
PRESIDENT TRUMP
Forty-one percent of likely voters in New Jersey approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 55 percent disapprove.
When it comes to issues affecting New Jersey, 50 percent of likely voters would like to see the next governor mainly stand up to President Trump, while 47 percent would like to see the next governor mainly work with President Trump.
JOB APPROVALS
Forty-eight percent of likely voters approve of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor, while 44 percent disapprove.
Forty-six percent of likely voters approve of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator, while 43 percent disapprove.
Forty-six percent of likely voters approve of the way Andy Kim is handling his job as United States Senator, while 27 percent disapprove and 27 percent did not offer an opinion.
1,238 New Jersey likely voters were surveyed from September 11th - 15th with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat, Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, Vic Kaplan the Libertarian Party candidate, and Joanne Kuniansky the Socialist Worker Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 49% 5% 93% 45% 44% 55% Ciattarelli 41 90 3 41 48 35 Kaplan 1 1 - 3 2 - Kuniansky 1 - 2 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 2 1 8 4 5 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 1 3 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOUR VOTE Q9. Infla- Immig- Health Ethics Taxes tion ration Care InGovt Sherrill 29% 58% 39% 80% 78% Ciattarelli 65 20 57 7 17 Kaplan 1 2 3 - 2 Kuniansky - - - 9 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 9 2 2 1 REFUSED 1 10 - 2 2 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Sherrill Ciattarelli Very enthusiastic 41% 37% 48% Smwht enthusiastic 45 48 40 Not so enthusiastic 8 8 6 Not enthus at all 4 4 3 DK/NA 2 2 2 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for governor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Sherrill Ciattarelli Very likely 1% 1% 1% Somewhat likely 10 9 8 Not so likely 16 18 15 Not likely at all 71 72 74 DK/NA 1 1 2 -
Question 1c. If the only candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat and Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Sherrill or Ciattarelli q1. Respondents who named Sherrill or Ciattarelli in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 51% 5% 95% 46% 45% 56% Ciattarelli 42 90 3 44 50 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 5 2 1 9 4 6 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 1 3 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOUR VOTE Q9. Infla- Immig- Health Ethics Taxes tion ration Care InGovt Sherrill 29% 58% 39% 89% 79% Ciattarelli 66 22 60 7 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 9 2 2 2 REFUSED 1 10 - 2 2 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Mikie Sherrill favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 6% 74% 36% 34% 45% Unfavorable 29 66 4 25 32 27 Hvn't hrd enough 29 28 21 37 33 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Jack Ciattarelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 84% 5% 39% 44% 36% Unfavorable 39 4 76 31 33 44 Hvn't hrd enough 21 11 20 28 23 19 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 -
Question 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 48% 9% 84% 46% 43% 52% Disapprove 44 83 9 47 49 39 DK/NA 8 8 7 7 8 8 -
Question 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 6% 83% 42% 41% 51% Disapprove 43 86 9 44 51 36 DK/NA 11 8 8 14 8 13 -
Question 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andy Kim is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 20% 72% 44% 43% 49% Disapprove 27 53 7 27 32 23 DK/NA 27 27 21 30 26 28 -
Question 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 41% 90% 2% 40% 48% 34% Disapprove 55 8 97 52 48 61 DK/NA 5 2 1 8 4 5 -
Question 8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 8% 4% 14% 6% 4% 12% Smwht satisfied 41 13 66 40 38 43 Smwht dissatisfied 22 28 12 27 28 17 Very dissatisfied 27 54 6 26 29 26 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 1 2 -
Question 9. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor: taxes, inflation, immigration, crime, unemployment, health care, schools, electricity costs, affordable housing, mass transit, or ethics in government?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Taxes 30% 40% 17% 37% 35% 25% Inflation 9 7 12 8 6 12 Immigration 8 13 6 7 8 9 Crime 5 11 2 4 7 3 Unemployment 1 - 2 1 1 2 Health care 9 1 18 7 6 12 Schools 6 5 8 5 4 7 Electricity costs 4 6 3 3 4 4 Affordable housing 6 4 8 6 5 8 Mass transit 1 - 2 1 2 - Ethics in government 14 7 20 15 16 13 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 2 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 4 -
Question 10. Would you say that Mikie Sherrill - cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 50% 21% 82% 43% 44% 55% No 35 66 9 36 39 31 DK/NA 15 13 9 21 17 14 -
Question 11. Would you say that Jack Ciattarelli - cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 44% 87% 8% 46% 47% 40% No 43 8 78 37 38 47 DK/NA 13 5 14 17 14 12 -
Question 12. Would you say that Mikie Sherrill - has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 52% 23% 82% 48% 48% 55% No 26 55 6 23 30 23 DK/NA 22 22 12 29 21 22 -
Question 13. Would you say that Jack Ciattarelli - has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 44% 81% 15% 46% 48% 41% No 35 10 61 29 29 40 DK/NA 21 8 24 26 23 19 -
Question 14. Would you say that Mikie Sherrill - is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 49% 21% 78% 44% 44% 54% No 24 47 6 23 30 19 DK/NA 27 32 16 32 26 27 -
Question 15. Would you say that Jack Ciattarelli - is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38% 71% 13% 36% 42% 33% No 37 12 62 34 33 40 DK/NA 26 18 26 30 25 27 -
Question 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling - electricity costs in New Jersey: Mikie Sherill or Jack Ciattarelli?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 42% 8% 79% 35% 37% 47% Ciattarelli 40 77 7 44 44 37 DK/NA 17 15 14 20 19 16 -
Question 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling - property taxes in New Jersey: Mikie Sherill or Jack Ciattarelli?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 40% 7% 77% 30% 33% 46% Ciattarelli 46 86 10 52 55 39 DK/NA 14 7 13 18 12 15 -
Question 18. When it comes to issues affecting New Jersey, would you like to see the next governor mainly stand up to President Trump or would you like to see the next governor mainly work with President Trump?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Stand up to 50% 8% 91% 43% 42% 57% Work with 47 91 6 53 53 42 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 5 1