NJ Governor's Race: Sherrill 50%, Ciattarelli 44%, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Ciattarelli Holds Edge On Enthusiasm
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Less than three weeks until Election Day, in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a slight lead over Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli as 50 percent of likely voters back Sherrill, 44 percent back Ciattarelli, and 1 percent each back Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan and Socialist Worker Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University New Jersey poll of likely voters released today.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's September 17 poll when Sherrill received 49 percent support, Ciattarelli received 41 percent support, and Kuniansky and Kaplan each received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats 92 - 4 percent back Sherrill, while Republicans 94 - 5 percent back Ciattarelli. Among independents, 48 percent back Ciattarelli and 42 percent back Sherrill.
Women 57 - 36 percent back Sherrill, while men 53 - 42 percent back Ciattarelli.
"While Jack Ciattarelli holds a fairly solid eleven percentage point lead among male voters, Mikie Sherrill has nearly double that lead with female voters," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
ENTHUSIASM
Among likely voters backing Ciattarelli, 91 percent say they are either very enthusiastic (55 percent) or somewhat enthusiastic (36 percent) about supporting him.
Among likely voters backing Sherrill, 86 percent say they are either very enthusiastic (42 percent) or somewhat enthusiastic (44 percent) about supporting her.
"The raucous debates are done, the attack ads are everywhere, and the race is close, with Sherrill holding a slight advantage. As the clock ticks down to Election Day, voter enthusiasm will translate into turnout. For the moment, in that category, Ciattarelli has an edge," added Malloy.
FAVORABILITY
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Sherrill: 43 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable, 18 percent haven't heard enough about her;
- Ciattarelli: 39 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable, 13 percent haven't heard enough about him.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's September 17 poll:
- Sherrill: 40 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable, 29 percent hadn't heard enough about her;
- Ciattarelli: 40 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable, 21 percent hadn't heard enough about him.
PROPERTY TAXES
Likely voters were asked whether they think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same if either Ciattarelli or Sherrill is elected governor.
If Ciattarelli is elected governor, 37 percent think property taxes will go up, 14 percent think property taxes will go down, and 40 percent think property taxes will stay about the same.
If Sherrill is elected governor, 44 percent think property taxes will go up, 5 percent think property taxes will go down, and 45 percent think property taxes will stay about the same.
HANDLING OF ISSUES
Likely voters were asked, regardless of how they intend to vote, who they think would do a better job of...
- Handling the state's schools: 50 percent say Sherrill, 41 percent say Ciattarelli, with 9 percent not offering an opinion;
- Handling New Jersey Transit: 48 percent say Sherrill, 38 percent say Ciattarelli, with 14 percent not offering an opinion;
- Keeping you and your family safe: 45 percent say Sherrill, 45 percent say Ciattarelli, with 10 percent not offering an opinion;
- Growing the state's economy: 44 percent say Sherrill, 47 percent say Ciattarelli, with 8 percent not offering an opinion.
HONESTY & EMPATHY
Likely voters were asked, regardless of how they intend to vote, who do they think is more honest:
- 45 percent say Sherrill, 38 percent say Ciattarelli, with 17 percent not offering an opinion.
Likely voters were asked, regardless of how they intend to vote, who do they think better understands the problems of people like them:
- 49 percent say Sherrill, 41 percent say Ciattarelli, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.
CANDIDATE BACKGROUNDS
Likely voters were asked about the candidates' backgrounds and whether each item listed makes them think more favorably about the candidate, less favorably, or does not have an impact on their view.
Sherrill:
She served nine years in the U.S. Navy, retiring with the rank of lieutenant:
- 61 percent say it makes them think more favorably of her, while 6 percent say it makes them think less favorably of her, and 32 percent say it doesn't have an impact on their view of her.
She is a lawyer and worked as a federal prosecutor in New Jersey:
- 46 percent say it makes them think more favorably of her, while 13 percent say it makes them think less favorably of her, and 40 percent say it doesn't have an impact on their view of her.
She has served for six years in the United States Congress:
- 46 percent say it makes them think more favorably of her, while 17 percent say it makes them think less favorably of her, and 36 percent say it doesn't have an impact on their view of her.
Ciattarelli:
He held local political offices dating back to 1990, including seven years in the state assembly:
- 34 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, while 9 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him, and 55 percent say it doesn't have an impact on their view of him.
He is the former owner of a medical publishing company:
- 15 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, while 18 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him, and 64 percent say it doesn't have an impact on their view of him.
He ran two previous campaigns for governor:
- 17 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, while 23 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him, and 58 percent say it doesn't have an impact on their view of him.
"How important is the resume? While both candidates have had varied, successful, and impactful careers, Mikie Sherrill's military service as a naval aviator seems to hit home with voters most," added Malloy.
1,327 New Jersey likely voters were surveyed from October 9th - 13th with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat, Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, Vic Kaplan the Libertarian Party candidate, and Joanne Kuniansky the Socialist Worker Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 50% 5% 92% 42% 42% 57% Ciattarelli 44 94 4 48 53 36 Kaplan 1 1 - 1 1 - Kuniansky 1 - 1 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 6 3 2 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 1 3 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Sherrill Ciattarelli Very enthusiastic 47% 42% 55% Smwht enthusiastic 41 44 36 Not so enthusiastic 8 9 6 Not enthus at all 4 5 2 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for governor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Sherrill Ciattarelli Very likely 2% 2% 2% Somewhat likely 6 5 5 Not so likely 13 14 11 Not likely at all 79 79 81 DK/NA 1 1 - -
Question 1c. If the only candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat and Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Sherrill or Ciattarelli q1. Respondents who named Sherrill or Ciattarelli in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 51% 5% 93% 43% 42% 58% Ciattarelli 44 94 4 49 54 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 6 3 2 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 1 3 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Mikie Sherrill favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 9% 79% 33% 36% 48% Unfavorable 38 78 5 41 46 32 Hvn't hrd enough 18 12 16 25 17 18 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Jack Ciattarelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 86% 4% 40% 44% 35% Unfavorable 46 6 81 41 41 50 Hvn't hrd enough 13 8 14 17 14 13 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of the Republican party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 90% 5% 36% 46% 34% Unfavorable 52 7 91 50 48 56 Hvn't hrd enough 6 2 4 10 4 8 REFUSED 2 1 - 4 2 2 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of the Democratic party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 4% 84% 28% 31% 49% Unfavorable 50 93 10 57 62 40 Hvn't hrd enough 7 2 5 12 6 8 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 3 -
Question 6. If Mikie Sherrill is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 44% 70% 17% 48% 50% 38% Go down 5 4 6 6 5 5 Stay about the same 45 22 69 38 39 50 DK/NA 7 4 8 8 5 8 -
Question 7. If Jack Ciattarelli is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 37% 12% 59% 31% 30% 44% Go down 14 31 2 13 16 12 Stay about the same 40 49 29 47 45 36 DK/NA 9 7 10 9 10 8 -
Question 8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - growing the state's economy: Jack Ciattarelli or Mikie Sherrill?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ciattarelli 47% 93% 9% 52% 56% 40% Sherrill 44 4 85 35 35 52 DK/NA 8 3 6 13 9 8 -
Question 9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling the state's schools: Jack Ciattarelli or Mikie Sherrill?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ciattarelli 41% 88% 5% 44% 49% 35% Sherrill 50 8 89 43 42 57 DK/NA 9 4 6 13 10 8 -
Question 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - keeping you and your family safe: Jack Ciattarelli or Mikie Sherrill?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ciattarelli 45% 90% 5% 51% 52% 38% Sherrill 45 5 87 35 37 52 DK/NA 10 5 8 14 11 10 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling New Jersey Transit: Jack Ciattarelli or Mikie Sherrill?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ciattarelli 38% 85% 5% 37% 45% 32% Sherrill 48 5 87 43 41 54 DK/NA 14 10 9 19 14 14 -
Question 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think - is more honest: Jack Ciattarelli or Mikie Sherrill?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ciattarelli 38% 80% 6% 37% 43% 33% Sherrill 45 6 84 37 37 52 DK/NA 17 14 10 25 20 15 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think - better understands the problems of people like you: Jack Ciattarelli or Mikie Sherrill?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ciattarelli 41% 89% 4% 44% 48% 35% Sherrill 49 6 91 42 38 59 DK/NA 10 6 5 14 13 6 -
Question 14. Have you seen any of Jack Ciattarelli's television or social media advertisements for this year's election for governor, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 85% 89% 86% 82% 84% 87% No 13 9 13 18 15 12 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 -
Question 14a. Have you seen any of Jack Ciattarelli's television or social media advertisements for this year's election for governor, or not? COMBINED WITH: (If yes q14) Do they make you more likely to vote for Jack Ciattarelli, less likely to vote for Jack Ciattarelli, or don't they make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 18% 42% 2% 17% 19% 18% Less likely 28 3 53 22 21 33 No difference 39 45 31 42 44 36 Have not seen 13 9 13 18 15 12 DK/NA 2 1 1 - 1 2 -
Question 15. Have you seen any of Mikie Sherrill's television or social media advertisements for this year's election for governor, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 86% 86% 87% 86% 85% 87% No 13 13 12 14 15 13 DK/NA - - - - - - -
Question 15a. Have you seen any of Mikie Sherrill's television or social media advertisements for this year's election for governor, or not? COMBINED WITH: (If yes q15) Do they make you more likely to vote for Mikie Sherrill, less likely to vote for Mikie Sherrill, or don't they make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 17% 2% 36% 11% 13% 21% Less likely 24 52 4 23 27 21 No difference 44 31 48 49 43 44 Have not seen 13 13 12 14 15 13 DK/NA 2 2 - 3 2 1 -
Question 16. (Intro q16-18: I'm going to mention a few items about Mikie Sherrill's background. For each, please tell me if it makes you think more favorably of her, less favorably of her, or doesn't it have an impact on your view of her?) She served nine years in the U.S. Navy, retiring with the rank of lieutenant.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More favorably 61% 40% 77% 62% 61% 61% Less favorably 6 11 2 4 7 5 No impact 32 47 21 33 30 34 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 2 - -
Question 17. (Intro at q16) She is a lawyer and worked as a federal prosecutor in New Jersey.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More favorably 46% 16% 71% 44% 39% 52% Less favorably 13 25 3 13 17 10 No impact 40 57 26 41 41 38 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 2 - -
Question 18. (Intro at q16) She has served for six years in the United States Congress.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More favorably 46% 14% 79% 39% 37% 53% Less favorably 17 31 2 21 24 12 No impact 36 52 19 40 37 35 DK/NA 1 3 - - 2 - -
Question 19. (Intro q19-21: I'm going to mention a few items about Jack Ciattarelli's background. For each, please tell me if it makes you think more favorably of him, less favorably of him, or doesn't it have an impact on your view of him?) He held local political offices dating back to 1990, including seven years in the state assembly.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More favorably 34% 48% 22% 38% 37% 32% Less favorably 9 3 12 10 10 8 No impact 55 47 65 50 52 58 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 1 -
Question 20. (Intro at q19) He is the former owner of a medical publishing company.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More favorably 15% 24% 8% 16% 16% 14% Less favorably 18 2 30 17 16 20 No impact 64 69 61 65 65 64 DK/NA 2 5 1 1 3 2 -
Question 21. (Intro at q19) He ran two previous campaigns for governor.
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More favorably 17% 36% 4% 17% 19% 16% Less favorably 23 4 39 23 20 26 No impact 58 57 55 59 58 58 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 3 -