PA Governor's Race: Shapiro 59%, Garrity 34%, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Voters Favor Dems To Win Control Of U.S. House By 15 Points
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In the final weeks of Pennsylvania's gubernatorial race, 59 percent of likely voters support incumbent Governor Josh Shapiro, 34 percent support Republican challenger Stacy Garrity, 2 percent support Libertarian Party candidate Ken Krawchuk, and 5 percent did not choose a candidate, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released today.
This is the first survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania in the 2026 election cycle by the Quinnipiac University Poll and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters.
Among Democrats, 95 percent support Shapiro, 2 percent support Garrity, and 3 percent did not choose a candidate.
Among Republicans, 79 percent support Garrity, 17 percent support Shapiro, 2 percent support Krawchuk, and 3 percent did not choose a candidate.
Among independents, 62 percent support Shapiro, 23 percent support Garrity, 5 percent support Krawchuk, and 8 percent did not choose a candidate.
Fifty-five percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Josh Shapiro, while 29 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him and 14 percent haven't heard enough about him.
Twenty-two percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Stacy Garrity, while 32 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her and 44 percent haven't heard enough about her.
"One of the country's most popular governors gets a rousing endorsement from Pennsylvania's likely voters in a race that looks like a rout," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
SATISFACTION
Fifty-six percent of likely voters are either very satisfied (8 percent) or somewhat satisfied (48 percent) with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today, while 42 percent are either somewhat dissatisfied (25 percent) or very dissatisfied (17 percent).
JOB APPROVALS
Job approval ratings for Pennsylvania elected officials and President Trump:
- Governor Josh Shapiro: 63 percent approve, 30 percent disapprove, with 7 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senator John Fetterman: 41 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove, with 9 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senator Dave McCormick: 37 percent approve, 35 percent disapprove, with 28 percent not offering an opinion;
- President Donald Trump: 37 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove, with 3 percent not offering an opinion.
SENATOR FETTERMAN
Thirty-seven percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of John Fetterman, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him and 15 percent haven't heard enough about him.
Among Democrats, 13 percent have a favorable opinion of Fetterman, while 69 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him and 16 percent haven't heard enough about him.
Among Republicans, 72 percent have a favorable opinion of Fetterman, while 19 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him and 7 percent haven't heard enough about him.
Among independents, 27 percent have a favorable opinion of Fetterman, while 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him and 23 percent haven't heard enough about him.
CONTROL OF U.S. HOUSE
More than half of likely voters (54 percent) would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 39 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House, with 7 percent not offering an opinion.
Among independents, 56 percent would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the House and 27 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House, with 18 percent not offering an opinion.
"With independents in strong agreement, Democrats get the nod on which party should wield the gavel in the U.S. House," added Malloy.
AI DATA CENTERS
When considering the costs and benefits, 64 percent of likely voters think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more harm than good, while 24 percent think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more good than harm, with 12 percent not offering an opinion.
There are wide political gaps.
Eighty percent of Democrats think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more harm than good, while 11 percent think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more good than harm, with 9 percent not offering an opinion.
Seventy-two percent of independents think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more harm than good, while 20 percent think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more good than harm, with 8 percent not offering an opinion.
Republicans are divided, as 40 percent think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more harm than good, while 44 percent think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more good than harm, with 16 percent not offering an opinion.
1,159 Pennsylvania likely voters were surveyed from October 1st - 5th with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Shapiro the Democrat, Stacy Garrity the Republican, and Ken Krawchuk the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 59% 17% 95% 62% 53% 66% Garrity 34 79 2 23 39 29 Krawchuk 2 2 - 5 3 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 2 1 8 4 3 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 2 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Shapiro Garrity Very enthusiastic 41% 47% 32% Smwht enthusiastic 42 38 50 Not so enthusiastic 9 8 9 Not enthus at all 6 5 7 DK/NA 2 2 2 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for governor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Shapiro Garrity Very likely 1% 2% - Somewhat likely 8 6 9 Not so likely 13 13 15 Not likely at all 76 78 74 DK/NA 1 1 2 -
Question 2. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Republican Party 39% 93% 2% 27% 47% 32% Democratic Party 54 4 95 56 46 61 DK/NA 7 3 2 18 7 7 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Josh Shapiro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 24% 86% 52% 48% 62% Unfavorable 29 61 4 23 36 23 Hvn't hrd enough 14 13 10 22 14 14 REFUSED 2 3 - 3 2 2 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Stacy Garrity favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 22% 51% 3% 16% 27% 19% Unfavorable 32 7 55 32 26 38 Hvn't hrd enough 44 40 42 52 46 43 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of John Fetterman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 72% 13% 27% 46% 28% Unfavorable 46 19 69 49 39 53 Hvn't hrd enough 15 7 16 23 13 16 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 -
Question 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Josh Shapiro is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 63% 29% 92% 63% 55% 70% Disapprove 30 64 5 24 37 24 DK/NA 7 7 3 13 8 6 -
Question 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dave McCormick is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 67% 18% 30% 46% 29% Disapprove 35 13 51 40 32 37 DK/NA 28 20 32 30 22 34 -
Question 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Fetterman is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 41% 74% 19% 32% 52% 31% Disapprove 50 20 72 56 41 57 DK/NA 9 6 9 11 7 11 -
Question 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 85% 4% 22% 42% 31% Disapprove 60 12 94 73 53 67 DK/NA 3 2 1 5 5 2 -
Question 10. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 8% 3% 14% 8% 8% 9% Smwht satisfied 48 45 55 45 46 51 Smwht dissatisfied 25 33 18 24 28 22 Very dissatisfied 17 18 12 21 17 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 1 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - growing the state's economy: Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 55% 16% 88% 56% 48% 60% Garrity 35 73 7 28 42 28 DK/NA 11 11 5 16 10 12 -
Question 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - lowering the cost of living: Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 55% 13% 92% 58% 49% 61% Garrity 33 75 5 23 40 27 DK/NA 11 11 4 19 11 11 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling taxes: Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 56% 15% 90% 57% 47% 63% Garrity 35 77 6 28 44 27 DK/NA 9 8 4 15 9 10 -
Question 14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling immigration: Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 53% 11% 90% 52% 45% 61% Garrity 36 78 4 27 45 27 DK/NA 11 10 6 20 10 13 -
Question 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling health care: Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 59% 17% 92% 66% 54% 63% Garrity 30 69 4 18 34 26 DK/NA 11 14 4 15 12 11 -
Question 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling AI data centers: Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 54% 19% 84% 57% 49% 59% Garrity 29 59 8 21 34 24 DK/NA 17 21 7 22 17 17 -
Question 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling vaccine guidelines: Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shapiro 56% 16% 89% 61% 51% 61% Garrity 31 71 6 19 36 27 DK/NA 12 13 5 19 13 12 -
Question 18. Considering the costs and benefits, do you think AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more good than harm or do more harm than good?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Do more good 24% 44% 11% 20% 33% 16% Do more harm 64 40 80 72 57 70 DK/NA 12 16 9 8 9 14