NY Governor's Race: Hochul 55%, Blakeman 41%, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Nearly A Quarter Of Voters Still Unfamiliar With Blakeman
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In the final stretch of New York's gubernatorial race, Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul receives 55 percent support among likely voters and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman receives 41 percent support, with 4 percent not choosing a candidate, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in New York State released today.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's September 23 poll, when Hochul received 58 percent support and Blakeman received 39 percent support, with 3 percent not choosing a candidate.
In today's poll, Democrats 94 - 5 percent back Hochul and Republicans 95 - 4 percent back Blakeman. Among independents, 51 percent back Blakeman and 44 percent back Hochul.
Women 60 - 35 percent back Hochul. Men are split, with 49 percent backing Hochul and 48 percent backing Blakeman.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Forty-five percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Kathy Hochul, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her and 6 percent haven't heard enough about her.
In September, 46 percent of likely voters had a favorable opinion of Hochul, 43 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her, and 10 percent hadn't heard enough about her.
In today's poll, 36 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bruce Blakeman, while 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him and 23 percent haven't heard enough about him.
In September, 30 percent of likely voters had a favorable opinion of Blakeman, 36 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 34 percent hadn't heard enough about him.
"As Republican Bruce Blakeman becomes better known, he's improved his image among independents. But with less than two weeks to go until the final votes are cast, he faces an uphill battle as Hochul maintains a double-digit lead," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
When likely voters were given a list of ten issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, the cost of living (22 percent) and the economy (19 percent) top the list, followed by immigration (13 percent). No other issue reaches double digits.
Among likely voters who say the cost of living is the most important issue, Hochul leads Blakeman 71 - 24 percent.
Among likely voters who say the economy is the most important issue, Hochul leads Blakeman 72 - 27 percent.
Among likely voters who say immigration is the most important issue, Blakeman leads Hochul 71 - 28 percent.
"The issues driving likely voters to choose a candidate produce starkly different outcomes. If it's the cost of living or the economy as the top issue, Hochul has resounding support. If it's immigration, Blakeman leads overwhelmingly," added Snow.
HOCHUL JOB APPROVAL
Forty-nine percent of likely voters approve of the way Kathy Hochul is handling her job as governor, while 45 percent disapprove.
PRESIDENT TRUMP
Thirty-four percent of likely voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 60 percent disapprove.
Thirty-five percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, 59 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 2 percent haven't heard enough about him.
ZOHRAN MAMDANI
Forty-three percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani, 42 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 12 percent haven't heard enough about him.
1,167 New York State likely voters were surveyed from October 15th - 19th with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Kathy Hochul the Democrat and Bruce Blakeman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 55% 4% 94% 44% 49% 60% Blakeman 41 95 5 51 48 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 1 - 3 REFUSED 2 1 - 2 1 2 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Hochul 56% 61% 55% 56% 46% 70% 47% Blakeman 32 38 43 43 52 24 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - - - - - 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 6 1 1 1 - 3 2 REFUSED 2 - 2 1 2 2 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO GOV VOTE Q8 Econ- CostOf omy Living Immigration Hochul 72% 71% 28% Blakeman 27 24 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 2 - REFUSED - 1 1 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Hochul Blakeman Very enthusiastic 47% 33% 65% Smwht enthusiastic 38 49 24 Not so enthusiastic 7 8 6 Not enthus at all 5 6 3 DK/NA 3 3 2 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for governor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Hochul Blakeman Very likely 1% 1% - Somewhat likely 3 3 4 Not so likely 8 11 5 Not likely at all 87 84 90 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Kathy Hochul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 4% 79% 35% 39% 50% Unfavorable 46 91 13 56 54 39 Hvn't hrd enough 6 2 4 7 5 7 REFUSED 3 3 4 2 2 4 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 34% 42% 49% 52% 41% 55% 38% Unfavorable 47 48 44 42 53 30 55 Hvn't hrd enough 12 5 5 4 4 9 4 REFUSED 8 5 2 2 1 7 2 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Bruce Blakeman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 36% 81% 6% 43% 41% 31% Unfavorable 40 5 70 34 40 41 Hvn't hrd enough 23 13 24 21 18 27 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 25% 29% 39% 38% 42% 22% 45% Unfavorable 43 42 37 44 36 47 38 Hvn't hrd enough 27 29 25 17 21 28 17 REFUSED 4 - - 1 1 2 - -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 35% 87% 3% 38% 39% 32% Unfavorable 59 10 94 54 57 61 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 4 2 3 REFUSED 4 1 2 4 3 5 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 24% 28% 40% 39% 44% 21% 40% Unfavorable 65 65 55 58 52 70 55 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 REFUSED 8 6 2 1 2 6 3 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Zohran Mamdani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 3% 73% 35% 40% 46% Unfavorable 42 88 10 50 49 36 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 13 14 8 15 REFUSED 4 1 5 2 3 4 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 58% 47% 46% 36% 33% 61% 35% Unfavorable 31 45 40 44 47 27 54 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 11 16 16 9 8 REFUSED 4 - 3 5 3 4 3 -
Question 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathy Hochul is handling her job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 49% 6% 84% 38% 44% 54% Disapprove 45 90 11 57 52 38 DK/NA 6 4 4 5 3 8 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Approve 48% 50% 49% 55% 43% 62% 42% Disapprove 43 43 45 42 54 29 53 DK/NA 9 7 5 3 4 9 5 -
Question 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 34% 86% 3% 40% 39% 31% Disapprove 60 11 95 54 58 62 DK/NA 5 3 2 5 4 7 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Approve 25% 28% 37% 39% 43% 20% 41% Disapprove 70 65 57 59 53 72 54 DK/NA 6 7 6 2 4 7 5 -
Question 8. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor: the economy, the cost of living, health care, taxes, energy costs, crime, schools, immigration, affordable housing, or AI data centers?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Economy 19% 14% 26% 17% 17% 20% Cost of living 22 14 29 20 23 21 Health care 9 2 14 7 8 10 Taxes 7 15 2 7 9 5 Energy costs 3 5 1 4 4 2 Crime 9 17 3 12 9 9 Schools 2 1 3 2 2 3 Immigration 13 21 9 13 15 13 Affordable housing 6 1 7 7 5 7 AI data centers 2 1 2 3 2 2 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 5 6 3 5 3 6 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Economy 9% 21% 18% 26% 17% 21% 19% Cost of living 39 25 20 18 20 26 20 Health care 9 9 10 7 8 12 6 Taxes 2 6 9 7 9 6 4 Energy costs - 3 4 4 6 1 1 Crime 6 11 9 7 7 7 17 Schools 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 Immigration 13 11 11 17 16 8 17 Affordable housing 12 7 7 2 2 10 7 AI data centers 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 1 4 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 2 3 4 6 7 3 3