NJ Governor's Race: Sherrill 51%, Ciattarelli 43% Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Voters' Top Issues: Ciattarelli Wins On Taxes, Sherrill Wins On Health Care & Ethics In Government
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In the final days of New Jersey's contentious and closely watched gubernatorial race, Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli 51 - 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University New Jersey poll of likely voters released today. Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan and Socialist Worker Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky each receive 1 percent support. Three percent of likely voters are undecided and 1 percent refuse to respond.
This compares to Quinnipiac University's October 15 poll when Sherrill received 50 percent support and Ciattarelli received 44 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats 94 - 1 percent back Sherrill, while Republicans 93 - 4 percent back Ciattarelli. Independents are split, with 47 percent backing Ciattarelli and 44 percent backing Sherrill.
Women 57 - 37 percent back Sherrill. Among men, 50 percent back Ciattarelli, while 43 percent back Sherrill.
"Will another Democrat assume the reins from Governor Phil Murphy? In the final days of a very combative race, Mikie Sherrill's 20 percentage point advantage with women fuels her overall lead of 8 points over Jack Ciattarelli," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Mikie Sherrill: 47 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable, 13 percent haven't heard enough about her;
- Jack Ciattarelli: 43 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable, 9 percent haven't heard enough about him.
GOVERNOR PHIL MURPHY
Forty-five percent of likely voters approve of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor, while 47 percent disapprove.
Democrats (83 - 9 percent) approve of the way Governor Murphy is handling his job, while Republicans (88 - 7 percent) and independents (56 - 36 percent) disapprove.
PRESIDENT TRUMP
Forty percent of likely voters in New Jersey approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 56 percent disapprove.
Republicans (88 - 8 percent) approve of the way President Trump is handling his job, while Democrats (95 - 3 percent) and independents (55 - 39 percent) disapprove.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Given a list of 11 issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, 25 percent of likely voters say taxes, 16 percent say ethics in government, and 14 percent say health care, with no other issue reaching double digits.
In Quinnipiac University's September 17 poll, taxes (30 percent) and ethics in government (14 percent) were the only two issues reaching double digits. Health care was 9 percent.
In today's poll, 72 percent of likely voters who say taxes are the most important issue to their vote back Ciattarelli, while 21 percent back Sherrill.
Seventy-eight percent of likely voters who say ethics in government is the most important issue to their vote back Sherrill, while 16 percent back Ciattarelli, 3 percent back Kuniansky, and 1 percent back Kaplan.
Eighty-seven percent of likely voters who say health care is the most important issue to their vote back Sherrill, while 10 percent back Ciattarelli, and 1 percent back Kaplan.
1,166 New Jersey likely voters were surveyed from October 23rd - 28th with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat, Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, Vic Kaplan the Libertarian Party candidate, and Joanne Kuniansky the Socialist Worker Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 51% 4% 94% 44% 43% 57% Ciattarelli 43 93 1 47 50 37 Kaplan 1 - 1 2 1 - Kuniansky 1 - 1 2 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 1 3 2 2 4 REFUSED 1 1 - 3 1 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOUR VOTE Q6 Health Ethics Taxes Care InGovt Sherrill 21% 87% 78% Ciattarelli 72 10 16 Kaplan - 1 1 Kuniansky - - 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 5 1 - REFUSED 1 1 - TRUMP APP Q5 MURPHY APP Q4 App Dis App Dis Sherrill 3% 87% 90% 13% Ciattarelli 94 5 5 83 Kaplan - 1 1 1 Kuniansky - 2 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 3 3 1 REFUSED - 1 1 1 VOTE STATUS... Alrdy NtAlrdy Voted Voted Sherrill 53% 50% Ciattarelli 43 43 Kaplan 1 1 Kuniansky - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 4 REFUSED 3 1 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Sherrill Ciattarelli Very enthusiastic 53% 45% 62% Smwht enthusiastic 39 44 33 Not so enthusiastic 5 6 3 Not enthus at all 2 3 1 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for governor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Sherrill Ciattarelli Very likely 1% 1% 1% Somewhat likely 3 4 2 Not so likely 8 8 7 Not likely at all 87 86 90 DK/NA - - - -
Question 1c. If the only candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat and Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Sherrill or Ciattarelli q1. Respondents who named Sherrill or Ciattarelli in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sherrill 51% 4% 95% 45% 44% 58% Ciattarelli 44 93 1 49 51 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 1 3 3 3 4 REFUSED 1 1 - 3 1 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOUR VOTE Q6 Health Ethics Taxes Care InGovt Sherrill 22% 87% 79% Ciattarelli 72 10 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 5 1 1 REFUSED 1 1 - TRUMP APP Q5 MURPHY APP Q4 App Dis App Dis Sherrill 3% 88% 90% 14% Ciattarelli 94 7 5 83 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 3 3 1 REFUSED - 1 1 1 VOTE STATUS... Alrdy NtAlrdy Voted Voted Sherrill 53% 51% Ciattarelli 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 4 REFUSED 3 1 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Mikie Sherrill favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 47% 3% 86% 43% 41% 53% Unfavorable 38 81 2 42 47 30 Hvn't hrd enough 13 13 11 15 11 15 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 2 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Jack Ciattarelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 90% 3% 46% 48% 37% Unfavorable 47 6 85 43 43 52 Hvn't hrd enough 9 4 12 10 9 9 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 -
Question 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 7% 83% 36% 39% 51% Disapprove 47 88 9 56 56 39 DK/NA 7 5 8 8 5 10 -
Question 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 40% 88% 3% 39% 47% 34% Disapprove 56 8 95 55 50 61 DK/NA 4 4 2 6 3 5 -
Question 6. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor: taxes, inflation, immigration, crime, unemployment, health care, schools, electricity costs, affordable housing, mass transit, or ethics in government?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Taxes 25% 40% 12% 25% 28% 22% Inflation 6 4 7 7 6 7 Immigration 8 11 4 9 8 9 Crime 4 9 - 3 4 3 Unemployment 1 - 1 1 1 1 Health care 14 6 26 9 12 16 Schools 6 4 7 9 6 7 Electricity costs 5 7 1 7 6 4 Affordable housing 7 3 9 8 6 7 Mass transit 1 - 3 1 2 - Ethics in government 16 9 24 15 16 17 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 3 3 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 3 4