July 18, 2012

Menendez Opens 13-Point Lead In New Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Give Obama A Total 11-Point Lead Over Romney

Background

Word format

New Jersey voters give Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez a 46 - 32 percent approval rating and a 47 - 34 percent lead over State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, the Republican challenger, his biggest lead in months, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 45 - 35 percent lead in a May 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. Today, Menendez leads 82 - 4 percent among Democrats and 44 - 33 percent among independent voters, while Kyrillos leads 77 - 10 percent among Republicans.

The Democrat leads 43 - 38 percent among men and 52 - 30 percent among women. He leads in every section of the state except the shore areas, where Monmouth County's Kyrillos is ahead 44 - 35 percent. Rural voters are divided 41 - 42 percent.

Menendez has a 37 - 25 percent favorability rating, with 36 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. For Kyrillos, 72 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

"Sen. Robert Menendez is close to the magic 50 percent mark, and has a comfortable double-digit lead over the little-known State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Kyrillos could be looking at that 13-point hole and thinking about what Mercutio said in Romeo & Juliet: 'Tis not so deep as a well, nor so wide as a church door; but 'tis enough, 'twill serve.'

"And Menendez is running as well in his race as President Barack Obama is doing against Gov. Mitt Romney."

New Jersey voters give President Barack Obama a 49 - 38 percent lead over Mitt Romney. Democrats back Obama 89 - 3 percent while Romney leads 86 - 7 percent among Republicans. Independent voters tip to Obama 43 - 39 percent. Men split 44 - 43 percent while women back Obama 53 - 33 percent.

Voters under 35 years old back Obama 64 - 23 percent while voters 35 to 54 years old go Democratic 49 - 36 percent and voters over 55 split 44 - 45 percent.

Obama gets a 51 - 45 percent job approval rating and a 52 - 42 percent favorability rating. Romney gets a negative 35 - 43 percent favorability rating.

"Scratch New Jersey off any swing state lists. President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney by double-digits," Carroll said.

"Demographics are destiny. Young folks like Obama a lot, 41 points worth, and Romney doesn't catch up with older voters. Black voters like Obama 87 - 6 percent; white voters pick Romney 46 - 39 percent."

New Jersey voters split on whether Congress should repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with 47 percent for keeping the law and 45 percent for repeal. Voters agree 49 - 45 percent with the U.S. Supreme Court decision to uphold ACA.

And voters say 54 - 38 percent that New Jersey should expand its Medicaid program to cover more low-income uninsured adults, as provided by ACA.

It would be better if the governor and State Legislature created a statewide health care exchange, as provided by ACA, 45 percent of voters say, while 21 percent want the federal government to create New Jersey's exchange, with 30 percent undecided.

From July 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,623 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                49%     7%    89%    43%    44%    53%    39%    87%
Romney               38     86      3     39     43     33     46      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      3      4      2      3      1
DK/NA                 8      6      5     10      6     10      9      4
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Obama                47%    33%    36%    33%    35%    43%
Romney               44     48     51     53     52     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      1      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      3      2      4      2
DK/NA                 6     11      9      9      7     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Obama                53%    46%    64%    49%    44%    55%    44%    52%    46%
Romney               38     38     23     36     45     27     45     39     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      4      2      2      5      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      4      3      2      2      2      2      5
DK/NA                 6     10      5      9      9     10      8      6      4

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29  Jan 18  Nov 16  Oct 13
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2011
 
Obama                49      49      49      49      48      49      47
Romney               38      39      40      39      38      40      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       1       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2       4       4       3       3
DK/NA                 8       8       7       7       9       7       7

2. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election, Obama or Romney?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                56%    28%    79%    55%    52%    60%    50%    78%
Romney               29     56     11     29     34     26     35     11
DK/NA                14     16     10     16     14     15     15     11
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Obama                57%    45%    47%    48%    46%    54%
Romney               32     36     35     41     39     30
DK/NA                11     18     18     12     15     16
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Obama                61%    53%    72%    56%    50%    59%    54%    61%    57%
Romney               28     31     22     28     33     25     33     29     38
DK/NA                11     17      6     15     17     16     14     10      6

3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            52%    11%    88%    47%    45%    58%    43%    89%
Unfavorable          42     84      6     47     49     36     52      6
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      4      3      4      3      3      5
REFUSED               2      3      1      3      2      3      2      -
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            49%    39%    39%    37%    37%    49%
Unfavorable          47     55     56     57     57     46
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      3      4      3      3
REFUSED               2      3      2      2      3      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Favorable            54%    50%    64%    51%    48%    57%    49%    54%    49%
Unfavorable          42     43     29     42     47     33     46     43     49
Hvn't hrd enough      2      4      4      5      2      6      2      2      1
REFUSED               2      3      3      3      2      3      3      1      1

TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Nov 16  Oct 13  Nov 19  Jan 25
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2008    2007
 
Favorable            52      54      52      50      47      64      41
Unfavorable          42      41      43      44      47      21       9
Hvn't hrd enough      4       3       2       3       3      11      49
REFUSED               2       3       2       2       4       4       1

4. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            35%    74%     8%    38%    42%    29%    43%     9%
Unfavorable          43     10     70     39     39     46     38     63
Hvn't hrd enough     19     14     20     21     16     23     17     24
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      3      2      3      4
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            44%    42%    47%    47%    50%    35%
Unfavorable          42     35     33     30     33     42
Hvn't hrd enough     13     21     17     21     14     20
REFUSED               2      3      3      2      3      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Favorable            39%    33%    24%    34%    41%    25%    39%    39%    42%
Unfavorable          47     39     55     42     38     46     40     46     42
Hvn't hrd enough     11     25     20     21     19     26     19     13     14
REFUSED               2      3      1      3      2      3      2      1      1

TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (* High also 39% Nov 2011)

                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Nov 16  Oct 13  Apr 12  Jan 25
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2012*   2007
 
Favorable            35      35      39      39      35      39      11
Unfavorable          43      41      37      29      31      37      12
Hvn't hrd enough     19      21      21      30      32      21      76
REFUSED               2       3       3       2       1       3       1

5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Menendez             47%    10%    82%    44%    43%    52%    41%    75%
Kyrillos             34     77      4     33     38     30     41      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      2      2      3      1      2      1
DK/NA                16     11     12     21     16     16     16     16
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Menendez             63%    47%    41%    53%    35%
Kyrillos             23     33     42     26     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      4      1
DK/NA                12     16     15     17     19

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Menendez             47      45      44      49
Kyrillos             34      35      35      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       2
DK/NA                16      19      18      14

6. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            37%    12%    60%    35%    36%    39%    32%    60%
Unfavorable          25     49      6     28     33     19     30      7
Hvn't hrd enough     36     37     32     36     30     41     36     32
REFUSED               1      3      1      1      2      1      1      1
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            52%    38%    35%    37%    28%
Unfavorable          22     26     29     18     31
Hvn't hrd enough     26     34     33     43     40
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      2

TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            37      37      35      38
Unfavorable          25      26      27      24
Hvn't hrd enough     36      36      37      36
REFUSED               1       1       1       2

7. Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            17%    38%     6%    14%    20%    14%    20%     8%
Unfavorable          10      2     19      9     11     10      7     25
Hvn't hrd enough     72     60     74     77     68     75     73     66
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      1      1      -      1
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            12%    14%    19%    12%    29%
Unfavorable          14     11     10     11      8
Hvn't hrd enough     73     75     71     76     64
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      -

TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            17      17      14      11
Unfavorable          10       7       6       6
Hvn't hrd enough     72      75      79      82
REFUSED               1       1       1       1

13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              46%    19%    70%    45%    42%    49%    41%    68%
Disapprove           32     60      9     34     40     24     37     11
DK/NA                22     21     21     21     18     26     22     21
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              60%    46%    42%    47%    36%
Disapprove           23     32     36     28     39
DK/NA                17     22     22     26     25

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29  Jan 18  Feb 29  Feb 20
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2008
 
Approve              46      44      45      48      42      48      30
Disapprove           32      30      31      31      39      31      31
DK/NA                22      26      24      21      20      21      39

14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              44%    27%    63%    41%    44%    45%    43%    58%
Disapprove           36     57     16     40     41     31     41     18
DK/NA                20     16     21     19     15     24     17     24
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Approve              51%    45%    43%    43%    40%
Disapprove           29     36     39     34     41
DK/NA                20     19     18     22     19

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High approve also 55% Sep 1999 & Jul 1999)

                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29  Jan 18  Jul 27  Feb 20
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2000*   2008
 
Approve              44      46      46      49      42      55      39
Disapprove           36      34      34      36      43      22      31
DK/NA                20      20      20      15      15      23      29

15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              51%    11%    86%    45%    45%    56%    42%    87%
Disapprove           45     85      8     52     51     40     54      9
DK/NA                 4      3      6      3      4      4      4      4
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Approve              48%    38%    39%    36%    37%    46%
Disapprove           49     58     55     62     60     49
DK/NA                 3      4      6      2      3      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Approve              52%    49%    63%    52%    46%    59%    47%    51%    47%
Disapprove           44     46     28     45     50     37     48     47     52
DK/NA                 4      5      9      3      4      4      5      2      1

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29  Jan 18  Jun 10  Oct 13
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2009    2011
 
Approve              51      53      51      51      49      68      43
Disapprove           45      43      46      45      48      25      52
DK/NA                 4       4       3       4       3       7       5

19. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    18%    73%    44%    42%    50%    39%    74%
No/Does not          34     63      9     37     42     27     40      9
DK/NA                20     20     18     19     16     23     21     17
 
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Yes/Deserves         62%    47%    41%    48%    37%
No/Does not          21     36     39     29     39
DK/NA                17     17     20     22     24

TREND: Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                                                             DESERVES......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 18  May 16  Apr 12  Feb 29  Jan 18  Feb 29  Oct 13
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         46      42      43      48      45      48      40
No/Does not          34      33      34      34      38      34      38
DK/NA                20      24      23      19      17      19      21

31. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the health care law, or should they let it stand?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Repeal it            45%    81%    13%    50%    52%    39%    52%    15%
Let it stand         47     12     79     43     43     51     40     78
DK/NA                 8      7      8      7      5     10      8      7
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Repeal it            47%    56%    54%    58%    58%    47%
Let it stand         48     35     36     34     37     43
DK/NA                 5     10     10      8      5     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Repeal it            43%    47%    32%    47%    48%    38%    51%    45%    49%
Let it stand         52     43     62     46     43     52     42     52     48
DK/NA                 5     10      7      7      9     10      7      4      3

32. The Supreme Court has heard a challenge to the health care law and voted to uphold it. Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme Court decision to uphold the health care law?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Agree                49%    15%    79%    45%    48%    50%    43%    74%
Disagree             45     79     15     49     49     42     51     20
DK/NA                 6      6      6      6      3      9      6      6
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Agree                53%    36%    41%    36%    42%    44%
Disagree             43     56     51     58     54     48
DK/NA                 4      8      8      6      4      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Agree                58%    42%    59%    50%    44%    47%    47%    55%    62%
Disagree             38     50     35     45     49     45     47     43     36
DK/NA                 3      8      6      6      7      9      6      2      2

33. The Supreme Court's decision also affected Medicaid, the federal health program for low income, uninsured adults. The decision gives state governments the option not to expand their Medicaid programs without losing funding for their existing Medicaid system. Based on what you have read or heard about this, do you agree or disagree with this decision?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Agree                44%    48%    38%    46%    49%    39%    45%    39%
Disagree             39     33     46     36     38     40     37     45
DK/NA                18     19     16     17     13     21     18     16
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Agree                53%    40%    37%    46%    51%    40%
Disagree             33     39     41     35     36     37
DK/NA                14     21     21     19     13     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Agree                52%    38%    45%    42%    43%    36%    47%    49%    50%
Disagree             35     42     40     41     38     47     35     37     34
DK/NA                13     20     15     17     19     16     18     14     15

34. Do you think New Jersey should expand it's Medicaid program to cover more low-income, uninsured adults or don't you think so?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Expand           54%    23%    78%    51%    50%    57%    45%    88%
No/Don't             38     69     14     41     42     34     46      8
DK/NA                 9      9      8      8      8      9      9      4
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Yes/Expand           46%    44%    42%    39%    43%    47%
No/Don't             47     45     47     52     50     42
DK/NA                 7     11     11      9      7     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Yes/Expand           51%    55%    66%    56%    48%    68%    50%    48%    51%
No/Don't             42     35     30     34     43     24     43     43     45
DK/NA                 6     10      5     10      9      8      7      9      4

35. The health care law, upheld by the Supreme Court, allows for a statewide health care exchange. The health care exchange will be set up to offer people a place to shop for affordable healthcare and to compare different healthcare plans. Do you think it would be best if New Jersey's health care exchange was created by the governor and state legislature or do you think it would be best if it was created by the federal government, or don't you have an opinion on that?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Governor/Legislature 45%    61%    26%    52%    51%    39%    48%    22%
Federal government   21      6     36     19     20     23     20     32
No opinion           30     27     35     27     25     35     28     42
REFUSED               4      6      2      3      4      3      4      5
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Governor/Legislature 50%    47%    48%    50%    53%    44%
Federal government   25     16     17     18     19     21
No opinion           23     32     31     28     23     33
REFUSED               3      4      3      4      5      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-34  35-54  55+   <50K  50-100 100-250 >250
 
Governor/Legislature 48%    42%    44%    44%    45%    35%    48%    48%    62%
Federal government   27     18     25     23     19     22     21     24     20
No opinion           22     36     30     30     32     40     29     23     15
REFUSED               3      4      1      4      4      4      2      4      3

Demographic Summary

Poll Questions