Trump Pulls Ahead In Presidential Race, Vast Majority Of Voters Plan To Watch Debate, 16% Open To Changing Choice For President, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Support Social Media Warning Label And Banning Smartphones In The Classroom
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As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, Trump has a slight lead over Biden 49 - 45 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. This is a small change from Quinnipiac University's May 22 poll when the race was too close to call with Biden receiving 48 percent support and Trump receiving 47 percent support.
In today's poll, Republicans (93 - 4 percent) and independents (51 - 41 percent) back Trump, while Democrats (94 - 4 percent) back Biden.
In a six-way hypothetical race that includes other candidates, Trump leads with 43 percent support, Biden receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 11 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support.
"The political heat rises in this steamy American summer of discord. Trump holds a narrow lead in the head-to-head matchup and is in a slightly better position when all the candidates are included," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
More than 7 in 10 voters (73 percent) think it is likely that they will watch the televised debate between Biden and Trump on Thursday, while 25 percent of voters think it is unlikely that they will watch the debate.
When voters who chose a candidate were asked whether they would be open to the possibility of changing their choice for president based on the debate performances, 16 percent say they are open to the possibility, while 82 percent say they are not open to the possibility.
Thirteen percent of voters supporting Biden, 12 percent of voters supporting Trump, and 32 percent of voters supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. say they are open to the possibility of changing their choice for president based on the debate performances.
"A change of heart or a dramatic shift in loyalty when the lights fade on the first debate? Not likely when it comes to Biden and Trump supporters, but those currently supporting RFK, Jr. are a different story," added Malloy.
THE ISSUES
Voters were asked how important each of eight issues is in their decision of who to support in the election for president...
- preserving democracy in the United States: 51 percent say extremely important, 31 percent say very important, 12 percent say somewhat important, 2 percent say not so important, and 3 percent say not important at all;
- the economy: 45 percent say extremely important, 41 percent say very important, 12 percent say somewhat important, 1 percent say not so important, and 1 percent say not important at all;
- the United States Supreme Court: 38 percent say extremely important, 34 percent say very important, 17 percent say somewhat important, 4 percent say not so important, and 5 percent say not important at all;
- immigration: 35 percent say extremely important, 33 percent say very important, 22 percent say somewhat important, 5 percent say not so important, and 4 percent say not important at all;
- abortion: 29 percent say extremely important, 28 percent say very important, 20 percent say somewhat important, 8 percent say not so important, and 12 percent say not important at all;
- Donald Trump's felony conviction in New York City: 23 percent say extremely important, 16 percent say very important, 11 percent say somewhat important, 10 percent say not so important, and 38 percent say not important at all;
- climate change: 21 percent say extremely important, 25 percent say very important, 21 percent say somewhat important, 12 percent say not so important, and 20 percent say not important at all;
- the Israel - Hamas war in Gaza: 18 percent say extremely important, 32 percent say very important, 30 percent say somewhat important, 8 percent say not so important, and 9 percent say not important at all.
TRUMP CONVICTION
A majority of voters (55 percent) think Donald Trump should not be sentenced to prison based on the guilty verdict in the New York City criminal trial against him in connection to charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress, while 40 percent think he should be sentenced to prison.
Republicans (92 - 4 percent) and independents (59 - 36 percent) think Trump should not be sentenced to prison based on this guilty verdict, while Democrats (79 - 17 percent) think he should be sentenced to prison.
Voters were asked how it would impact their vote if Trump were given a prison sentence. Among Trump voters, a majority (59 percent) say if he were given a prison sentence it would not make a difference to their vote, 36 percent say they would be more likely to vote for him, and 4 percent say they would be less likely to vote for him.
HUNTER BIDEN CONVICTION
Fifty-one percent of voters think President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, should be sentenced to prison after a jury found him guilty of lying on a mandatory gun purchase form by saying he was not illegally using or addicted to drugs, while 38 percent think he should not be sentenced to prison.
Republicans (61 - 28 percent) and independents (50 - 39 percent) think Hunter Biden should be sentenced to prison based on this guilty verdict. Among Democrats, 48 percent think he should not be sentenced to prison, while 42 percent think he should be sentenced to prison.
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL
Voters give President Biden a negative 38 - 58 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 39 - 56 percent job approval rating in Quinnipiac University's May 22 poll.
SUPREME COURT
Voters disapprove 54 - 37 percent of the way the United States Supreme Court is handling its job.
Democrats (84 - 9 percent) and independents (53 - 42 percent) disapprove of the way the High Court is handling its job, while Republicans (62 - 27 percent) approve.
Sixty-three percent of voters think that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics, while 32 percent think that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by the law.
Voters 70 - 25 percent support limiting the number of years a Supreme Court Justice can serve on the Supreme Court.
SOCIAL MEDIA & SMARTPHONES
Voters 72 - 22 percent support the United States surgeon general's proposal to put a warning label on social media, similar to warnings on tobacco and alcohol, stating that social media is associated with significant mental health harms for adolescents. There is support among all listed groups, with the biggest support across age groups coming from the youngest voters, 18 - 34 years old, who are generally the most avid users of social media.
A majority of voters (61 percent) support their state banning students from using smartphones during the school day, while 30 percent oppose it.
Voters 18 - 34 years old (55 - 38 percent) oppose the ban.
"There is broad support for waving a red warning flag over social media in general, and when it comes to smartphones being sequestered during classroom hours, it's two-to-one in favor...that's until you ask the youngest voters," added Malloy.
EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATE CHANGE
Nearly 6 in 10 voters (59 percent) think the extreme weather events in the United States over the past few years are related to climate change, while 36 percent do not think they are related to climate change.
Just over one-third of voters (36 percent) are worried that they or someone in their family might be affected by an extreme weather event, while 63 percent say they are not worried about that.
1,405 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from June 20th - 24th with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 45% 4% 94% 41% 37% 53% 60% 26% Trump 49 93 4 51 59 40 37 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 2 1 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 2 1 1 REFUSED 1 2 - 2 1 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 47% 40% 43% 50% 29% 48% 39% 76% 51% Trump 45 51 53 47 66 48 57 19 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 1 - 2 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Kennedy Biden 37% Trump 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 8 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 REFUSED 2 EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT Q12-19...... Econ- Climt Immig- Abor- Prsrv Is/Hms Suprem Trump omy Chng ratn tion Demcry War Court Cnvctn Biden 31% 84% 20% 69% 59% 39% 53% 87% Trump 63 9 75 26 37 55 43 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 3 3 1 4 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 - 1 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - -
Question 2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent candidate, Cornel West running as an independent candidate, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 37% 4% 85% 30% 30% 44% 54% 24% Trump 43 86 4 40 51 34 32 61 Kennedy 11 7 6 17 11 10 7 9 West 2 - 2 2 3 2 1 1 Stein 2 - 1 3 1 2 1 1 Oliver 1 1 - 2 2 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - 1 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 1 - 4 1 4 1 1 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 27% 30% 40% 47% 25% 45% 35% 58% 33% Trump 36 42 48 45 59 42 50 16 35 Kennedy 19 15 6 6 10 7 8 15 14 West 8 3 1 - 1 1 1 7 5 Stein 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 Oliver 2 2 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - 2 - 1 - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 3 2 1 - 2 1 - 5 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - - - - 3 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Biden Trump Biden 82% - Trump 1 86 Kennedy 9 10 West 4 1 Stein 1 1 Oliver 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 1 REFUSED - - EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT Q12-19...... Econ- Climt Immig- Abor- Prsrv Is/Hms Suprem Trump omy Chng ratn tion Demcry War Court Cnvctn Biden 23% 71% 15% 59% 50% 32% 47% 73% Trump 56 8 69 25 34 50 39 6 Kennedy 12 10 8 6 7 9 6 11 West 2 2 2 4 3 1 2 2 Stein 1 4 1 3 2 5 2 3 Oliver 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 - - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 - 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - - 1 1 1 1 REFUSED - - - - - - 1 - -
Question 3. As you may know, a televised debate has been scheduled between President Biden and former President Trump on June 27th. Do you think that it is likely or unlikely that you will watch this debate?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Likely 73% 83% 70% 72% 73% 73% 74% 77% Unlikely 25 15 28 27 26 24 25 20 DK/NA 2 2 3 1 1 3 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Likely 58% 70% 73% 85% 75% 77% 76% 63% 75% Unlikely 41 29 23 12 23 20 22 33 25 DK/NA 1 1 4 3 1 3 2 4 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Likely 75% 79% 54% Unlikely 23 18 44 DK/NA 2 3 2 -
Question 4. (If candidate chosen q2) Regardless of which candidate you support, which comes closer to your thinking: you are open to the possibility of changing your choice for president based on the debate performances or you are not open to the possibility of changing your choice for president based on debate performances?
REGISTERED VOTERS............ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Tot Biden Trump Kennedy Open to change 16% 13% 12% 32% Not open to change 82 87 84 67 DK/NA 2 - 4 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 85% 3% 45% 53% 34% 30% 61% Unfavorable 51 11 93 51 41 61 68 35 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 39% 45% 47% 43% 58% 41% 49% 21% 38% Unfavorable 49 51 51 53 38 56 47 73 52 Hvn't hrd enough 8 2 - 1 1 1 1 4 8 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 38% 5% 83% 33% 29% 47% 55% 24% Unfavorable 57 93 12 61 65 50 44 74 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 4 4 4 3 1 1 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 21% 35% 40% 51% 25% 46% 35% 62% 33% Unfavorable 66 61 58 47 73 53 63 25 55 Hvn't hrd enough 13 3 1 1 1 - 1 10 12 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - -
Question 7. Is your opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 22% 22% 9% 33% 25% 19% 20% 23% Unfavorable 38 32 55 32 37 38 55 36 Hvn't hrd enough 37 43 34 33 35 40 24 38 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 4 3 1 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 25% 26% 22% 18% 27% 17% 22% 14% 31% Unfavorable 17 29 47 50 40 45 43 31 23 Hvn't hrd enough 56 42 28 29 30 36 33 52 44 REFUSED 2 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 2 -
Question 8. How upset would you be if the candidate you support in the 2024 presidential election lost; very upset, somewhat upset, not so upset, or not upset at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very upset 48% 54% 62% 36% 38% 58% 62% 51% Somewhat upset 26 22 23 32 31 21 24 23 Not so upset 9 10 5 12 13 6 6 7 Not upset at all 14 12 9 15 15 12 7 15 DK/NA 3 2 1 5 3 3 1 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very upset 26% 37% 60% 66% 46% 63% 55% 33% 42% Somewhat upset 33 31 21 17 29 19 24 33 29 Not so upset 16 12 6 5 8 5 7 12 11 Not upset at all 20 17 11 9 13 11 12 20 14 DK/NA 4 3 2 3 3 2 3 1 4 -
Question 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 38% 4% 82% 35% 29% 46% 54% 23% Disapprove 58 94 16 62 67 50 44 74 DK/NA 4 2 3 3 3 4 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 27% 33% 40% 47% 25% 44% 35% 58% 39% Disapprove 66 64 58 51 72 54 63 37 55 DK/NA 7 3 2 2 3 2 3 5 6 -
Question 9a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q9) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve strongly 21% 2% 51% 14% 15% 26% 30% 15% Approve smwht 17 2 30 21 14 20 23 8 Disapprove smwht 12 10 11 12 13 10 9 9 Disapprove strongly 47 84 4 50 54 39 35 65 DK/NA 4 2 3 4 4 5 3 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve strongly 7% 10% 24% 37% 14% 27% 21% 34% 16% Approve smwht 20 24 15 10 11 16 14 25 23 Disapprove smwht 29 15 5 4 10 8 9 22 17 Disapprove strongly 37 49 54 46 62 46 54 15 38 DK/NA 7 3 3 2 3 3 3 5 6 -
Question 10. In this presidential election, which is more important to you: the character of the candidates or the candidates' positions on issues facing the nation today?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Character 24% 10% 36% 27% 22% 26% 31% 18% Positions on issues 71 86 57 71 74 69 65 79 DK/NA 5 4 7 2 4 5 4 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Character 25% 17% 26% 28% 22% 24% 23% 28% 26% Positions on issues 75 78 70 64 76 72 74 62 68 DK/NA 1 5 3 8 2 4 3 10 5 -
Question 11. If there were a crisis that put the country at great risk, who would you want in the Oval Office to deal with it: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 51% 93% 8% 52% 60% 41% 36% 70% Biden 43 5 89 39 36 51 59 27 DK/NA 6 2 3 8 4 8 5 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 49% 53% 54% 48% 66% 48% 57% 25% 44% Biden 39 40 43 49 30 48 39 66 46 DK/NA 11 7 3 2 4 4 4 9 10 -
Question 12. (Intro q12-19: For each issue I name, please tell me how important it is in your decision of who to support in the election for president...) Would you say - the economy is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 45% 57% 31% 42% 45% 44% 39% 48% Very important 41 39 46 43 40 42 38 42 Somewhat important 12 3 21 13 12 13 20 10 Not so important 1 - 1 1 1 - 2 - Not important at all 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA - - - - - - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 40% 51% 43% 42% 46% 43% 45% 40% 46% Very important 41 38 44 43 40 41 40 42 41 Somewhat important 16 9 12 14 12 15 13 14 12 Not so important 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Not important at all 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA - - - 1 - - - 1 - CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 28% 59% 51% Very important 46 39 31 Somewhat important 22 2 15 Not so important 2 - - Not important at all 1 - 2 DK/NA - - - -
Question 13. (Intro at q12) Would you say - climate change is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 21% 6% 39% 19% 17% 25% 29% 15% Very important 25 14 42 21 21 30 22 19 Somewhat important 21 23 16 22 21 20 21 21 Not so important 12 21 2 15 14 10 12 18 Not important at all 20 36 1 23 26 14 17 27 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 1 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 19% 23% 17% 24% 14% 26% 20% 28% 22% Very important 36 22 21 25 17 23 20 39 34 Somewhat important 25 19 24 18 22 20 21 19 18 Not so important 10 15 13 12 16 15 15 6 10 Not important at all 10 20 25 20 31 16 24 6 14 DK/NA - 1 1 1 - - - 1 2 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 40% 4% 20% Very important 39 12 23 Somewhat important 17 21 28 Not so important 2 22 12 Not important at all 1 41 15 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 14. (Intro at q12) Would you say - immigration is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 35% 56% 15% 33% 36% 34% 27% 42% Very important 33 34 31 34 32 34 35 31 Somewhat important 22 7 41 21 22 23 29 19 Not so important 5 1 7 7 6 4 6 4 Not important at all 4 - 6 4 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 23% 38% 39% 34% 39% 34% 36% 25% 32% Very important 38 29 33 36 28 36 32 30 37 Somewhat important 25 23 19 23 21 24 23 26 21 Not so important 10 5 4 2 7 3 5 7 6 Not important at all 4 3 4 3 4 2 3 9 3 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 14% 56% 27% Very important 29 34 36 Somewhat important 42 6 23 Not so important 8 1 8 Not important at all 6 1 4 DK/NA - 1 1 -
Question 15. (Intro at q12) Would you say - abortion is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 29% 17% 45% 27% 22% 36% 38% 25% Very important 28 24 36 27 27 30 29 25 Somewhat important 20 26 12 22 23 18 16 24 Not so important 8 13 2 10 10 6 6 11 Not important at all 12 17 4 13 16 9 9 12 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 2 2 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 25% 31% 28% 29% 22% 38% 30% 31% 25% Very important 37 23 28 29 23 30 26 35 30 Somewhat important 16 22 20 23 27 16 21 16 21 Not so important 8 8 8 10 10 7 9 4 6 Not important at all 10 15 16 5 16 7 11 12 17 DK/NA 4 - - 4 3 2 2 2 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 46% 17% 16% Very important 36 21 30 Somewhat important 11 26 25 Not so important 3 14 7 Not important at all 2 20 22 DK/NA 2 2 - -
Question 16. (Intro at q12) Would you say - preserving democracy in the United States is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 51% 38% 64% 53% 51% 50% 60% 48% Very important 31 41 25 28 32 30 29 34 Somewhat important 12 13 9 13 10 14 6 12 Not so important 2 2 - 2 3 1 2 1 Not important at all 3 4 1 3 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 40% 51% 52% 56% 53% 52% 52% 51% 41% Very important 26 31 35 31 33 32 33 33 24 Somewhat important 23 13 8 7 8 11 10 10 24 Not so important 5 1 1 - 2 - 1 3 2 Not important at all 5 3 3 1 3 2 2 4 6 DK/NA 1 - 1 4 2 2 2 - 3 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 69% 40% 34% Very important 24 38 30 Somewhat important 5 13 27 Not so important - 2 1 Not important at all 1 4 7 DK/NA 1 2 1 -
Question 17. (Intro at q12) Would you say - the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 18% 21% 16% 18% 16% 21% 20% 19% Very important 32 34 35 26 29 35 32 32 Somewhat important 30 28 32 35 31 30 35 31 Not so important 8 8 6 10 12 5 8 5 Not important at all 9 8 8 10 13 6 4 11 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 1 3 - 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 12% 16% 19% 22% 14% 25% 20% 20% 14% Very important 32 29 31 36 30 33 32 23 34 Somewhat important 35 28 31 30 32 33 33 23 30 Not so important 10 10 8 5 9 4 6 15 5 Not important at all 10 13 9 5 14 3 8 12 14 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 6 3 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 16% 22% 15% Very important 31 34 29 Somewhat important 36 24 33 Not so important 7 7 13 Not important at all 8 11 8 DK/NA 2 1 1 -
Question 18. (Intro at q12) Would you say - the United States Supreme Court is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 38% 36% 46% 33% 35% 41% 47% 37% Very important 34 39 34 31 36 33 31 34 Somewhat important 17 17 14 22 18 17 16 19 Not so important 4 3 3 7 5 3 3 4 Not important at all 5 5 3 5 5 4 3 6 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 29% 42% 40% 42% 36% 44% 40% 27% 39% Very important 35 29 34 37 33 32 33 47 32 Somewhat important 24 20 16 12 20 16 18 16 17 Not so important 5 5 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 Not important at all 4 4 6 4 5 4 5 5 4 DK/NA 3 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 48% 35% 22% Very important 34 37 25 Somewhat important 11 17 37 Not so important 2 5 4 Not important at all 3 4 11 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 19. (Intro at q12) Would you say - Donald Trump's felony conviction in New York City is extremely important in your choice in the election for president, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Extremely important 23% 5% 44% 21% 18% 28% 27% 16% Very important 16 4 30 11 13 19 18 11 Somewhat important 11 11 11 13 13 10 14 10 Not so important 10 13 4 11 10 9 11 11 Not important at all 38 65 9 41 45 32 29 52 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Extremely important 21% 22% 19% 26% 16% 24% 20% 36% 22% Very important 24 13 12 20 9 18 13 26 23 Somewhat important 15 12 11 9 12 11 12 9 12 Not so important 10 13 9 6 11 10 11 5 8 Not important at all 27 40 47 38 51 36 43 22 33 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Extremely important 45% 3% 24% Very important 28 5 14 Somewhat important 13 8 16 Not so important 5 13 11 Not important at all 8 70 35 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 20. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Excellent 6% - 13% 6% 5% 6% 9% 5% Good 29 6 58 27 25 32 45 19 Not so good 23 26 20 21 24 21 21 22 Poor 43 67 10 46 45 40 24 54 DK/NA - - - - - 1 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Excellent 2% 2% 7% 11% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% Good 17 27 31 35 24 34 29 38 19 Not so good 37 20 18 21 25 18 21 27 26 Poor 45 50 44 32 45 41 43 28 47 DK/NA - - - 1 - - - - 2 -
Question 21. For you personally, which of the following do you consider the best measure of how the nation's economy is doing: the stock market index, the unemployment rate and job reports, the prices of goods and services you buy, your personal finances, or the housing market?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Stock market 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 2% 6% 3% Unemployment/Jobs 15 4 25 18 14 17 26 12 Price of goods/srvcs 51 66 35 50 52 49 42 58 Personal finances 17 15 18 16 19 15 18 17 Housing market 8 5 11 8 7 10 4 5 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 4 7 3 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Stock market 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 7% 1% Unemployment/Jobs 11 16 15 19 16 19 17 18 11 Price of goods/srvcs 54 57 44 50 51 52 52 45 51 Personal finances 14 9 24 16 20 14 17 11 17 Housing market 16 11 5 5 5 4 4 14 15 DK/NA 2 3 8 6 3 7 5 4 5 -
Question 22. Thinking about your summer vacation plans, do you plan to spend more money on vacations this summer than last summer, less money on vacations or about the same amount as last summer?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More 12% 7% 14% 13% 14% 10% 15% 8% Less 42 54 29 43 43 41 31 47 About the same 40 32 53 39 38 43 53 36 DK/NA 6 7 4 6 6 6 2 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More 12% 12% 12% 10% 12% 9% 10% 15% 16% Less 46 48 44 33 43 39 41 32 49 About the same 38 37 39 50 39 45 42 48 32 DK/NA 4 3 5 8 6 7 6 5 3 -
Question 23. Do you support or oppose your state banning students from using smartphones during the school day?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 61% 65% 58% 64% 63% 60% 72% 65% Oppose 30 29 33 26 30 29 20 28 DK/NA 9 6 8 10 7 11 9 8 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 38% 57% 75% 69% 67% 68% 67% 47% 48% Oppose 55 33 18 21 26 23 25 42 48 DK/NA 7 10 6 10 7 9 8 11 4 -
Question 24. Do you think that the extreme weather events in the United States over the past few years are related to climate change, or don't you think so?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Related 59% 28% 90% 59% 53% 65% 70% 42% No 36 63 8 38 43 29 26 50 DK/NA 5 9 2 3 4 6 3 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Related 68% 63% 53% 53% 44% 61% 52% 81% 65% No 25 34 43 40 50 33 42 18 31 DK/NA 6 4 3 7 6 6 6 1 4 -
Question 25. Are you worried that you or someone in your family might be affected by an extreme weather event, or is that not something you're worried about?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Worried 36% 19% 57% 34% 31% 41% 41% 24% No/Not worried 63 80 43 66 68 58 58 75 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Worried 44% 39% 33% 31% 23% 38% 30% 47% 44% No/Not worried 56 60 67 69 75 62 69 53 56 DK/NA - 1 - 1 2 - 1 - - -
Question 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the United States Supreme Court is handling its job?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 37% 62% 9% 42% 45% 29% 33% 48% Disapprove 54 27 84 53 49 60 63 43 DK/NA 9 11 7 5 6 12 4 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 30% 32% 43% 42% 51% 35% 43% 17% 28% Disapprove 61 59 47 52 43 57 50 71 60 DK/NA 9 9 11 7 6 9 7 12 13 -
Question 27. In general, do you think that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics or mainly motivated by the law?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Mainly politics 63% 46% 84% 59% 58% 69% 60% 57% Mainly law 32 49 15 35 39 26 36 39 DK/NA 4 5 1 6 4 5 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Mainly politics 75% 70% 57% 57% 51% 64% 58% 81% 75% Mainly law 22 26 39 39 46 31 38 16 19 DK/NA 3 4 4 4 3 5 4 3 5 -
Question 28. Do you support or oppose limiting the number of years a Supreme Court Justice can serve on the Supreme Court?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 70% 55% 84% 67% 66% 73% 70% 70% Oppose 25 35 12 30 30 20 27 24 DK/NA 6 10 4 3 4 7 3 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 73% 74% 66% 67% 64% 76% 70% 72% 70% Oppose 20 18 29 28 32 18 25 20 22 DK/NA 7 8 4 5 4 6 5 8 8 -
Question 29. As you may know, the United States surgeon general has proposed putting a warning label on social media, similar to warnings on tobacco and alcohol. The label would state that social media is associated with significant mental health harms for adolescents. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 72% 68% 80% 68% 70% 74% 74% 69% Oppose 22 26 16 25 27 18 20 24 DK/NA 6 6 4 7 4 8 6 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 82% 69% 71% 70% 68% 74% 71% 84% 71% Oppose 17 24 24 23 28 17 23 15 22 DK/NA 1 7 5 7 4 8 6 1 7 -
Question 30. As you may know, a jury found former President Donald Trump guilty in the New York City criminal trial against him in connection to charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress. Do you think Donald Trump should be sentenced to prison based on this guilty verdict, or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Should 40% 4% 79% 36% 31% 48% 44% 25% No 55 92 17 59 64 46 52 71 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 5 6 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Should 49% 37% 33% 41% 23% 40% 32% 69% 49% No 45 56 63 56 74 54 64 25 47 DK/NA 6 7 3 3 3 5 4 7 4 -
Question 31. If Donald Trump were given a prison sentence, would that make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or doesn't it make a difference?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More likely 18% 33% 2% 19% 24% 12% 12% 26% Less likely 15 5 26 14 11 18 18 10 No difference 65 60 71 66 63 68 69 63 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More likely 13% 15% 23% 18% 28% 13% 21% 4% 18% Less likely 20 12 11 17 9 17 13 22 16 No difference 65 71 65 62 62 67 65 68 65 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 5 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Trump More likely 36% Less likely 4 No difference 59 DK/NA 1 -
Question 32. As you may know, a jury found President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, guilty of lying on a mandatory gun purchase form by saying he was not illegally using or addicted to drugs. Do you think Hunter Biden should be sentenced to prison based on this guilty verdict, or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Should 51% 61% 42% 50% 56% 47% 45% 55% No 38 28 48 39 36 40 44 36 DK/NA 11 10 10 11 8 13 12 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Should 63% 48% 46% 52% 56% 46% 51% 47% 52% No 29 42 40 38 35 42 39 41 42 DK/NA 7 9 14 10 8 12 10 12 6