New Jersey Voters Don't Adore The Senator Next Door, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Trails Giuliani, Ties McCain In Garden State

Share

In an early look at the 2008 presidential race in New Jersey, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 48 - 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 44 percent to Sen. Clinton's 43 percent, a tie.

New Jersey's independent voters back Giuliani 47 - 37 percent over Clinton; Giuliani also gets 86 percent of Republicans and 19 percent of Democrats, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In a McCain-Clinton matchup, independents back the Republican 48 - 36 percent; McCain also gets 86 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Democrats.

With 30 percent, Clinton leads a Democratic primary matchup, with 16 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 11 percent for former Vice President Al Gore and 8 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards; no other Democrat tops 6 percent.

Among Republicans, Giuliani leads with 39 percent, followed by McCain with 21 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 11 percent; no other contender tops 5 percent.

"It looks like problems with Sen. Hillary Clinton's new presidential campaign are cropping up close to home," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"She has established her front-runner status among Democrats and she enjoys positive favorability ratings, but a big chunk of New Jersey voters have negative feelings about the Senator next door - enough to show two Republicans giving her a run for her money in this traditionally Democratic state," Richards added.

"It's easy to explain why she trails 9/11 hero Rudolph Giuliani; less clear why Sen. John McCain from faraway Arizona is so close. Looking more deeply into the numbers, Sen. Clinton is losing Democratic voters to GOP rivals and she trails among the state's large bloc of independent voters. While it's very early, one has to wonder how Sen. Clinton will play in the rest of the country when she has these numbers right next door."

New Jersey voters give Clinton a 53 - 38 percent favorability rating.

Giuliani gets a 63 - 24 percent favorability rating.

McCain gets a 52 - 24 percent score.

Sen. Obama gets 41 - 9 percent favorability rating, with 49 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

President Bush's Approval

New Jersey voters disapprove 69 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, tying his lowest score ever in the Garden State. By a 71 - 22 percent margin, voters say the country is on the wrong track.

Voters disapprove 72 - 23 percent of the President's handling of the war in Iraq and say 63 - 30 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

Voters oppose 69 - 26 percent the President's plan to send 22,000 more U.S. military forces into Iraq.

From January 16 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,310 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 408 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points, and 461 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and click on Institutes and Centers, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore, John Kerry, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack and Dennis Kucinich for whom would you vote? 

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        Tot     Men     Wom
                                
Gore                    11%     16%      6%
Kerry                    6       8       5
Biden                    6      10       2
Edwards                  8      10       7
Richardson               1       3       -
Clinton                 30      21      37
Obama                   16      13      18
Dodd                     -       1       -
Clark                    2       1       2
Vilsack                  -       -       -
Kucinich                 -       1       -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       2
DK/NA                   17      15      19
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee and George Pataki for whom would you vote? 

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        Tot     Men     Wom



Giuliani                39%     35%     43%
McCain                  21      22      21
Romney                   5       6       3
Gingrich                11      17       5
Hunter                   1       1       1
Brownback                1       -       1
Thompson                 -       -       -
Gilmore                  1       1       1
Hagel                    1       -       1
Huckabee                 1       2       -
Pataki                   3       3       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3
DK/NA                   13       9      17
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Clinton                 41%      5%     75%     37%     36%     46%
Giuliani                48      86      19      47      52      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       -       3       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       3       -       1       2       1
DK/NA                    8       6       5      12       7       9



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Clinton                 62%     44%     27%     47%     27%
Giuliani                28      46      61      40      61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       1       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       3       -       3
DK/NA                    8       7       8      11       9
4. If... the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Clinton                 53%     13%     87%     51%     47%     58%
Romney                  29      68       5      25      36      23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       2       3       4       2
DK/NA                   13      15       5      17      11      15



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Clinton                 75%     56%     36%     55%     43%
Romney                  14      27      41      29      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       6       2       3
DK/NA                    7      13      15      11      17
5. If... the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Clinton                 43%      5%     80%     36%     37%     49%
McCain                  44      86      12      48      51      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       -       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       2       2       3       1
DK/NA                   10       7       6      13       8      12



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Clinton                 63%     46%     30%     47%     31%
McCain                  22      42      57      42      54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       2       4       2       2
DK/NA                   13      10       9       8      11
6. If... the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Obama                   39%     10%     70%     32%     35%     43%
McCain                  42      79      14      47      48      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       1       2       3       1
DK/NA                   15       9      14      18      12      18



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Obama                   55%     40%     32%     39%     31%
McCain                  29      43      44      42      50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       1       4       3       1
DK/NA                   14      14      18      15      15
7. If...the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Edwards                 39%      6%     73%     30%     37%     41%
McCain                  45      84      15      49      52      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       3       2       3       2
DK/NA                   12       7       8      17       7      17



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Edwards                 55%     43%     29%     37%     29%
McCain                  32      40      57      45      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       -       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       1       3       4       5
DK/NA                   10      14      11      13      13
8. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Favorable               53%     14%     88%     52%     47%     60%
Unfavorable             38      78      10      37      45      32
Hvn't hrd enough         6       6       2       8       7       6
REFUSED                  2       2       -       3       2       2



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Favorable               68%     55%     42%     58%     43%
Unfavorable             24      38      49      32      49
Hvn't hrd enough         7       5       7      10       4
REFUSED                  1       2       2       -       4
9. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Favorable               41%     23%     57%     39%     38%     44%
Unfavorable              9      18       3       9      12       7
Hvn't hrd enough        49      58      40      51      49      49
REFUSED                  1       1       -       -       1       1



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Favorable               51%     38%     43%     46%     31%
Unfavorable              4       8      11      10      15
Hvn't hrd enough        44      53      45      44      53
REFUSED                  -       1       1       -       1
10. Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Favorable               52%     72%     32%     60%     55%     49%
Unfavorable             24      13      36      19      29      20
Hvn't hrd enough        21      14      30      17      13      29
REFUSED                  2       1       2       4       2       2



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Favorable               43%     51%     63%     46%     61%
Unfavorable             20      24      23      33      18
Hvn't hrd enough        32      22      13      19      19
REFUSED                  5       2       1       2       2
11. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Favorable               63%     84%     44%     64%     62%     64%
Unfavorable             24       8      40      22      29      20
Hvn't hrd enough        12       8      16      13       8      15
REFUSED                  1       -       1       1       1       1



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Favorable               53%     61%     79%     51%     74%
Unfavorable             32      28      14      27      16
Hvn't hrd enough        13      10       7      22       8
REFUSED                  1       1       1       -       2
12. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Favorable               11%     21%      5%     11%     16%      6%
Unfavorable             12       4      21       7      16       7
Hvn't hrd enough        76      75      74      81      66      86
REFUSED                  1       -       -       2       1       1



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Favorable               12%     12%     15%      6%     11%
Unfavorable             15       9      17      15       5
Hvn't hrd enough        72      78      67      77      83
REFUSED                  1       1       1       2       1
13. Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Favorable               44%     30%     58%     41%     41%     47%
Unfavorable             23      40       8      27      30      17
Hvn't hrd enough        30      28      33      28      27      33
REFUSED                  2       2       1       4       1       3



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Favorable               42%     41%     50%     49%     42%
Unfavorable             16      23      27      23      27
Hvn't hrd enough        41      31      22      26      30
REFUSED                  1       4       -       2       1
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Approve                 44%     28%     58%     45%     49%     39%
Disapprove              32      56      15      31      33      31
DK/NA                   24      16      28      24      18      31



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Approve                 49%     45%     44%     37%     44%
Disapprove              24      32      35      33      34
DK/NA                   26      23      20      31      22
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? * - also hit 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999 

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Jun 15  Apr 27  Mar 20  Jul 27  Jun 18
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2000 *  2003



Approve                 44      44      44      43      47      55      41
Disapprove              32      33      34      32      30      22      34
DK/NA                   24      23      21      25      23      23      25
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Approve                 36%     17%     57%     33%     39%     34%
Disapprove              33      61      11      35      34      32
DK/NA                   31      23      32      32      27      33



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Approve                 47%     38%     29%     36%     32%
Disapprove              18      36      43      27      37
DK/NA                   35      26      28      36      31
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? * also hit 39% on 3/20/06 

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jul 17  Jun 15  Dec 7   Jul 17
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006 *  2006



Approve                 36      39      34      31      37      39      31
Disapprove              33      37      31      30      29      37      30
DK/NA                   31      24      35      39      34      24      39
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Approve                 26%     60%      7%     23%     27%     26%
Disapprove              69      35      89      72      69      68
DK/NA                    5       5       4       5       4       6



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Approve                 13%     26%     36%     23%     33%
Disapprove              83      71      58      71      59
DK/NA                    5       3       6       7       8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also hit 26% 4/27/06 & 12/7/2006 

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jul 17  Jun 15  Oct 18  Jan 25
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2001    2007 *



Approve                 26      26      33      34      28      90      26    
Disapprove              69      70      64      61      69       7      69    
DK/NA                    5       4       4       5       3       3       5
19. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Right direction         22%     42%      9%     21%     24%     20%
Wrong track             71      51      88      71      71      72
DK/NA                    7       7       3       8       5       9



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Right direction         16%     21%     30%     19%     24%
Wrong track             78      70      62      76      72
DK/NA                    6       9       8       5       5
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Approve                 23%     51%      6%     19%     25%     20%
Disapprove              72      43      92      76      72      72
DK/NA                    5       6       3       5       3       7



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Approve                 10%     23%     33%     20%     25%
Disapprove              84      74      62      72      69
DK/NA                    6       3       6       8       5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? 

                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jun 15  Apr 27  Mar 20  Jan 25
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006



Approve                 23      22      30      28      25      27      34
Disapprove              72      75      66      68      71      69      62
DK/NA                    5       3       4       3       5       4       4
21. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Right thing             30%     61%     10%     28%     35%     26%
Wrong thing             63      29      84      66      60      64
DK/NA                    7       9       6       5       5       9



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Right thing             18%     27%     42%     30%     36%
Wrong thing             74      68      52      59      55
DK/NA                    8       5       6      10       9
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? 

                        Jan 25  Dec 7   Sep 20  Jun 15  Apr 27  Mar 20  Oct 19
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2004



Right thing             30      32      36      33      31      33      44
Wrong thing             63      64      59      62      63      62      51
DK/NA                    7       4       5       5       6       6       5
22. Do you support or oppose Bush's proposal to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq? 

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom



Support                 26%     53%      9%     25%     33%     20%
Oppose                  69      43      88      68      61      75
DK/NA                    5       5       3       7       5       5



                                                Philly
                        Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore



Support                 11%     25%     38%     24%     33%
Oppose                  82      71      57      69      64
DK/NA                    7       4       5       7       3

Poll Questions