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Texas Governor's Race Tightens In Wake Of School Mass Shooting, Quinnipiac University Texas Poll Finds; 61% Of Parents Concerned There Will Be A Shooting At Their Child's School

In the race for Texas governor, 48 percent of voters support Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, while 43 percent support Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of Texas registered voters released today. This compares to a Quinnipiac University poll in December 2021 when 52 percent of voters supported Abbott and 37 percent supported O'Rourke. In today's poll, Republicans (90 - 5 percent) and independents (46 - 40 percent) back Abbott, while Democrats (96 - 2 percent) back O'Rourke.

There are also big differences by gender, race, and age. Abbott wins the support of men 59 - 33 percent, while O'Rourke wins the support of women 52 - 38 percent. Abbott wins the support of white voters 63 - 30 percent, while O'Rourke wins the support of Black voters 73 - 11 percent and Hispanic voters 50 - 41 percent. O'Rourke leads among voters 18 - 34 years old (56 - 35 percent), while Abbott leads among voters 35 - 49 years old (50 - 38 percent) and voters 50 - 64 years old (57 - 37 percent). Among voters 65 years of age and over, Abbott receives 50 percent, while O'Rourke receives 45 percent.

FAVORABILITY & PERSONAL TRAITS

Forty-six percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Abbott, while 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Thirty-eight percent of voters have a favorable opinion of O'Rourke, while 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

When it comes to Abbott's personal traits, voters say:

  • 46 - 45 percent that he is honest;
  • 52 - 44 percent that he has good leadership skills;
  • 48 - 47 percent that he does not care about average Texans.

When it comes to O'Rourke's personal traits, voters say:

  • 43 - 42 percent that he is not honest;
  • 45 - 43 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
  • 51 - 41 percent that he cares about average Texans.
"The race tightens...Abbott, considered strong on leadership, slips. O'Rourke, considered long on empathy, rides the momentum of support from women and young Texans in the horse race to Austin," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

ABBOTT VS. O'ROURKE: THE ISSUES

Voters were asked who would do a better job handling six issues...

  • the situation at the Mexican border: 53 percent say Abbott, while 38 percent say O'Rourke;
  • the economy: 52 percent say Abbott, while 38 percent say O'Rourke;
  • the response to the coronavirus: 51 percent say Abbott, while 40 percent say O'Rourke;
  • election laws: 49 percent say Abbott, while 42 percent say O'Rourke;
  • gun policy: 47 percent say Abbott, while 43 percent say O'Rourke;
  • abortion: 44 percent say O'Rourke, while 42 percent say Abbott.

MOST URGENT ISSUE

Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Texas today, the Texas-Mexico border tops the list (29 percent) followed by the economy (19 percent) and gun policy (17 percent).

Among Republicans, 56 percent say the Texas-Mexico border followed by the economy (24 percent).

Among Democrats, 34 percent say gun policy followed by abortion (13 percent).

Among independents, 25 percent say the Texas-Mexico border followed by the economy (21 percent), gun policy (18 percent), and abortion (10 percent).

SCHOOL SHOOTINGS

Sixty-one percent of parents say they are either very concerned (32 percent) or somewhat concerned (29 percent) there will be a shooting at their child's school, while 39 percent say they are either not so concerned (26 percent) or not concerned at all (13 percent).

"It's a number that dramatically underscores the horror still reverberating in Texas households. A majority of parents fear the unthinkable could barge into the very schools their children attend," added Malloy.

GUN LAWS

Fifty-one percent of voters think that stricter gun laws would help to decrease the number of mass shootings, while 47 percent think they would not. This is a change from a Quinnipiac poll in June 2021 when only 42 percent of voters said that stricter gun laws would help to decrease the number of mass shootings and 56 percent said they would not.

Voters support 58 - 38 percent stricter gun laws in the United States.

Voters support 93 - 6 percent requiring background checks for all gun buyers.

Voters support 73 - 25 percent raising the minimum legal age to buy any gun to 21 years old nationwide.

Voters are split on a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons. Forty-seven percent support a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons, while 49 percent oppose it.

"Texans take a hard look at a harrowing series of mass killings and signal it's time to put more teeth into gun laws. Though when it comes to assault weapons, there is a near even split on whether to outlaw their ownership," added Malloy.

ABORTION

Fifty-nine percent of voters think abortion should be legal in all cases (24 percent) or most cases (35 percent), while 35 percent think abortion should be illegal in most cases (23 percent) or all cases (12 percent).

This is an increase in support for abortion being legal compared to Quinnipiac's September 2021 poll when 51 percent thought abortion should be legal in all cases (17 percent) or most cases (34 percent) and 43 percent thought it should be illegal in most cases (32 percent) or all cases (11 percent).

JOB APPROVALS

Voters give President Joe Biden a negative 33 - 61 percent job approval rating. On Biden's handling of gun violence, voters give him a negative 31 - 60 percent approval rating.

Voters give Governor Greg Abbott a mixed job approval rating, with 46 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. On Abbott's handling of gun violence, voters give him a negative 38 - 55 percent approval rating.

Job approval ratings for Texas elected officials...

  • Sen. Ted Cruz: 43 percent approve, while 50 percent disapprove;
  • Sen. John Cornyn: 34 percent approve, while 44 percent disapprove;
  • State Attorney General Ken Paxton: 40 percent approve, while 43 percent disapprove;
  • Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick: 40 percent approve, while 39 percent disapprove;
  • Texas State Legislature: 37 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove.

1,257 Texas registered voters were surveyed from June 9th - 13th with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, including 326 parents with kids attending school with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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Poll Questions