Skip to Content

2024 Michigan: Trump Leads Biden In 5-Way Race, On Upside Of Too-Close-To-Call 2-Way Race, Quinnipiac University Michigan Poll Finds; 79% Of Dems Want Gov. Whitmer To Run For President In The Future

With the 2024 general election campaigns underway, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in the key state of Michigan in a 5-way race that includes independent and Green Party candidates, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Michigan released today.

In the five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Trump receives 41 percent support among registered voters, Biden receives 36 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 10 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 4 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, with 5 percent volunteering that they either are undecided (4 percent) or refused to answer (1 percent).

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump receives 48 percent support and Biden receives 45 percent support, with 8 percent volunteering that they either are undecided (3 percent), wouldn't vote (2 percent), would vote for someone else (1 percent), or refused to answer (2 percent).

In the head-to-head matchup, Republicans back Trump (94 - 5 percent) and Democrats back Biden (93 - 5 percent). Independents are divided, with 46 percent backing Trump and 42 percent backing Biden.

"With a big electoral prize hanging in the balance and their parties equally enthusiastic about their candidates, Biden and Trump brace for a combative rematch," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

COUNTING THE VOTES

When registered voters were asked how confident they are that votes across Michigan will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election, 7 out of 10 voters (70 percent) say they are either very confident (44 percent) or somewhat confident (26 percent) and 29 percent say they are either not so confident (13 percent) or not confident at all (16 percent).

MOST URGENT ISSUE

Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, 22 percent of voters say preserving democracy in the United States, 21 percent say the economy, and 21 percent say immigration. No other issue reached double digits.

There are big gaps by party identification.

Among Republicans, the top issue is immigration (42 percent), followed by the economy (24 percent). No other issue reached double digits.

Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (42 percent), followed by gun violence (12 percent) and the economy (10 percent).

Among independents, the top issue is the economy (26 percent), followed by preserving democracy in the United States (21 percent) and immigration (18 percent).

BIDEN

Voters give President Biden a negative 39 - 57 percent job approval rating.

Voters were asked about President Biden's handling of...

  • the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 42 percent approve, while 51 percent disapprove;
  • the economy: 41 percent approve, while 56 percent disapprove;
  • the situation at the Mexican border: 30 percent approve, while 60 percent disapprove;
  • the response to the war between Israel and Hamas: 28 percent approve, while 60 percent disapprove.

MI ELECTED OFFICIALS

Voters 54 - 39 percent approve of the way Gretchen Whitmer is handling her job as Michigan's governor.

Democrats (94 - 3 percent) and independents (52 - 40 percent) approve, while Republicans (78 - 17 percent) disapprove.

Job approval ratings for United States Senators:

  • Senator Debbie Stabenow: 43 percent approve, 36 percent disapprove, with 20 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Senator Gary Peters: 40 percent approve, 30 percent disapprove, with 30 percent not offering an opinion.

WHITMER FOR PRESIDENT IN THE FUTURE?

Voters 51 - 41 percent say they would not like Governor Gretchen Whitmer to run for president at some point in the future.

However, among Democrats, nearly 8 in 10 (79 percent) say they would like her to run for president at some point in the future, while 13 percent say they would not.

"Whether presiding over Michigan from the Lansing statehouse today or leading the country from the White House some day in the future, the Governor gets a stamp of approval from Democratic voters," added Malloy.

ECONOMY

Thirty-five percent of voters describe the state of the nation's economy these days as either excellent (6 percent) or good (29 percent), while 65 percent describe it as either not so good (28 percent) or poor (37 percent).

Nearly half of voters (47 percent) think the nation's economy is getting worse, 28 percent think it's staying about the same, and 23 percent think it's getting better.

A majority of voters (61 percent) describe their personal financial situation these days as either excellent (9 percent) or good (52 percent), while 38 percent describe it as either not so good (25 percent) or poor (13 percent).

"A head scratcher, but a fact: 65 percent of Michigan voters seem to think the economy is shaky at best, but nearly the same number say their finances are doing just fine," added Malloy.

ABORTION

Two-thirds of voters (66 percent) think abortion should be legal in either all cases (35 percent) or most cases (31 percent) and 28 percent think abortion should be illegal in either most cases (20 percent) or all cases (8 percent).

There are big differences by party.

Among Democrats, 94 percent think abortion should be legal in either all cases (62 percent) or most cases (32 percent) and 5 percent think it should be illegal in either most cases (4 percent) or all cases (1 percent).

Among independents, 67 percent think abortion should be legal in either all cases (33 percent) or most cases (34 percent) and 26 percent think it should be illegal in either most cases (19 percent) or all cases (7 percent).

Among Republicans, 39 percent think abortion should be legal in either all cases (11 percent) or most cases (28 percent) and 57 percent think it should be illegal in either most cases (39 percent) or all cases (18 percent).

IVF

An overwhelming majority of voters (88 percent) think IVF, in vitro fertilization, for those trying to have a child should be legal, while 4 percent think it should not be legal.

"A rare moment of agreement as Michigan's Democrats and Republicans coalesce around affirming that in vitro fertilization is an American right," added Malloy.

MIDEAST CONFLICT

Voters were asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians based on what they know about the situation in the Middle East. A plurality of voters (39 percent) say the Israelis, 27 percent say the Palestinians, and 34 percent did not offer an opinion.

Thirty-six percent of voters think the United States is doing too little to provide humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, 31 percent think the U.S. is doing about the right amount, 16 percent think the U.S. is doing too much, and 16 percent did not offer an opinion.

1,487 Michigan self-identified registered voters were surveyed from March 8th - 12th with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.

Poll Questions