Pennsylvania 2024: Harris Has Slight Edge Over Trump In Tight Race, Gets Boost From Women, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Senate Race: Casey Up 8 Points Over McCormick
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In the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge in a tight race over former President Donald Trump 48 - 45 percent among likely voters; We The People Party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 4 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receive less than one percent support each, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released today.
This is the first survey of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters.
In today's poll, Democrats 91 - 6 percent support Harris, while Republicans 88 - 9 percent support Trump. The race among independents is tight, with 46 percent supporting Harris and 42 percent supporting Trump.
There is a sizable gender gap. Women 54 - 41 percent back Harris, while men 49 - 42 percent back Trump.
"With all five contenders factored in, Harris has an edge overall, with strong support from women in must-win Pennsylvania," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same three-point slight edge over Trump 50 - 47 percent.
PERSONAL TRAITS
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump have good leadership skills, care about average Americans, have the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president, and are honest.
Good leadership skills:
- Harris: 48 percent say yes, 47 percent say no;
- Trump: 50 percent say yes, 49 percent say no.
Cares about average Americans:
- Harris: 50 percent say yes, 47 percent say no;
- Trump: 46 percent say yes, 54 percent say no.
Kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president:
- Harris: 52 percent say yes, 46 percent say no;
- Trump: 46 percent say yes, 53 percent say no.
Honest:
- Harris: 46 percent say yes, 48 percent say no;
- Trump: 37 percent say yes, 60 percent say no.
"Trump scores poorly on most key character traits including empathy, but none so glaringly as honesty, where Harris leads by a large margin; although they are perceived equally for their leadership skills," added Malloy.
ENTHUSIASM
Seven in 10 (70 percent) likely voters supporting Trump say they are very enthusiastic about supporting him, while 66 percent of likely voters supporting Harris say they are very enthusiastic about supporting her.
When asked about vice-presidential running mates, 59 percent of likely voters supporting Harris say the selection of Tim Walz makes them more enthusiastic about her candidacy, while 43 percent of likely voters supporting Trump say the selection of J.D. Vance makes them more enthusiastic about his candidacy.
"The long-term impact is speculation, but the math is clear: Walz helps Harris a lot more than Vance helps Trump," added Malloy.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Josh Shapiro: 53 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable, 17 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Kamala Harris: 46 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable, 5 percent haven't heard enough about her;
- Donald Trump: 44 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Bob Casey: 42 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable, 22 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- John Fetterman: 41 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable, 21 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Tim Walz: 36 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable, 35 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- J.D. Vance: 35 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable, 19 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- David McCormick: 30 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable, 37 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 23 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable, 28 percent haven't heard enough about him.
"From a potential presidential spoiler who got the attention of both parties to a single digit candidate who isn't well liked, RFK, Jr. is starting to look like an also-ran," added Malloy.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Given a list of 12 issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the election for president, 32 percent say the economy, followed by preserving democracy in the United States (25 percent) and immigration (10 percent).
Among Republicans, the top issue is the economy (50 percent) followed by immigration (20 percent). No other issue reached double digits.
Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (42 percent), followed by abortion (16 percent) and the economy (13 percent).
Among independents, the top issue is the economy (33 percent), followed by preserving democracy in the United States (23 percent) and immigration (10 percent).
U.S. SENATE RACE
Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, who is seeking re-election to a fourth term, leads Republican challenger David McCormick 52 - 44 percent.
Democrats (93 - 5 percent) back Casey, while Republicans (85 - 11 percent) back McCormick. Among independents, 50 percent back Casey, while 45 percent back McCormick.
"McCormick battles low name recognition and a popular incumbent in a closely watched, critical Senate race," added Malloy.
JOB APPROVALS
Job approval ratings for Pennsylvania elected officials and President Biden:
- Governor Josh Shapiro: 59 percent approve, 28 percent disapprove, with 12 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senator John Fetterman: 48 percent approve, 37 percent disapprove, with 15 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senator Bob Casey: 47 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove, with 15 percent not offering an opinion;
- President Joe Biden: 41 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove, with 4 percent not offering an opinion.
VOTING
For the 2024 election, three-quarters (75 percent) of likely voters say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 23 percent say they plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
Among those who say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, Trump leads 51 - 42 percent. Among those who say they plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot, Harris leads 72 - 22 percent.
1,738 likely voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed from August 8th - 12th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. the We The People Party candidate, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 48% 9% 91% 46% 42% 54% 67% 33% Trump 45 88 6 42 49 41 28 60 Kennedy 4 2 2 9 5 3 3 4 Stein - - - 1 1 - - - Oliver - - - - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - - 1 2 1 1 2 REFUSED - - - - - - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Harris 48% 57% 41% 50% 40% 52% 46% 85% Trump 37 35 54 46 54 42 48 9 Kennedy 9 7 2 1 4 3 4 1 Stein 1 - 1 - 1 - - 2 Oliver 1 - 1 - 1 - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - - - - - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 - 1 1 2 1 2 - REFUSED - - - 1 - - - 1 VOTING METHOD Q3...... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1A InPersonOn Mail/ Harris Trump ElectionDay Absentee Harris 96% - 42% 72% Trump - 96 51 22 Kennedy 4 4 5 3 Stein - - - 1 Oliver - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - - 1 3 REFUSED - - - - -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 50% 10% 93% 51% 45% 55% 68% 35% Trump 47 89 7 46 51 43 30 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 1 - 2 3 1 1 2 REFUSED - - - - - - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Harris 55% 59% 42% 50% 41% 53% 47% 87% Trump 40 37 56 47 56 45 50 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - - - - - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 - REFUSED - - - 1 - - - 1 VOTING METHOD Q3...... InPersonOn Mail/ ElectionDay Absentee Harris 44% 73% Trump 53 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 3 REFUSED - - -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Harris Trump Very enthusiastic 66% 66% 70% Smwht enthusiastic 27 26 23 Not so enthusiastic 4 5 3 Not enthus at all 2 2 2 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey the Democrat and David McCormick the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Casey 52% 11% 93% 50% 47% 57% 68% 38% McCormick 44 85 5 45 49 40 30 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 3 2 4 3 3 1 4 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Casey 55% 59% 44% 53% 43% 54% 49% 83% McCormick 40 36 52 45 52 41 47 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 3 -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person 75% 83% 64% 76% 75% 74% 71% 78% Mail/Absentee ballot 23 14 34 19 22 23 26 21 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 3 2 4 2 3 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk In person 76% 80% 81% 65% 77% 74% 75% 72% Mail/Absentee ballot 22 18 16 34 22 24 23 25 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 46% 8% 89% 40% 39% 52% 64% 32% Unfavorable 48 87 8 51 54 43 32 64 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 3 7 6 4 4 4 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 42% 55% 40% 48% 37% 50% 44% 77% Unfavorable 48 37 58 47 58 46 52 13 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 2 3 4 3 4 8 REFUSED - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 85% 5% 43% 49% 40% 28% 60% Unfavorable 53 13 93 54 48 57 70 36 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 35% 34% 54% 46% 54% 42% 48% 14% Unfavorable 57 62 44 52 43 55 49 85 Hvn't hrd enough 6 2 - 1 2 1 2 - REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Josh Shapiro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 53% 24% 85% 51% 47% 59% 69% 45% Unfavorable 29 56 4 28 33 25 19 37 Hvn't hrd enough 17 19 11 20 19 15 11 17 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 43% 57% 50% 61% 48% 60% 54% 64% Unfavorable 28 22 36 27 34 26 30 6 Hvn't hrd enough 29 20 14 11 17 13 15 28 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 -
Question 7. Is your opinion of Bob Casey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 42% 13% 77% 35% 36% 47% 59% 32% Unfavorable 35 62 6 36 39 31 24 44 Hvn't hrd enough 22 24 16 28 24 21 16 23 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 28% 46% 40% 51% 36% 48% 43% 54% Unfavorable 23 27 44 39 43 31 36 9 Hvn't hrd enough 47 26 16 9 21 20 21 34 REFUSED 2 - - 1 1 - - 3 -
Question 8. Is your opinion of John Fetterman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 41% 14% 70% 39% 37% 44% 55% 32% Unfavorable 36 61 12 35 42 31 28 47 Hvn't hrd enough 21 23 17 23 19 23 14 19 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 26% 40% 43% 52% 37% 45% 41% 52% Unfavorable 34 36 43 30 46 34 40 7 Hvn't hrd enough 40 21 13 15 15 19 17 39 REFUSED 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 -
Question 9. Is your opinion of David McCormick favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 30% 56% 4% 31% 34% 27% 21% 40% Unfavorable 32 12 59 25 30 35 45 27 Hvn't hrd enough 37 32 36 43 36 37 33 34 REFUSED - - - 1 - - 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 22% 19% 39% 36% 36% 29% 33% 10% Unfavorable 20 31 34 43 31 36 34 34 Hvn't hrd enough 58 49 27 21 32 34 33 54 REFUSED - 1 - - - - - 1 -
Question 10. Is your opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 23% 26% 11% 31% 27% 20% 16% 26% Unfavorable 48 33 71 43 45 51 65 40 Hvn't hrd enough 28 40 17 25 27 29 18 33 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 26% 25% 25% 16% 25% 20% 22% 20% Unfavorable 43 42 47 59 46 52 50 41 Hvn't hrd enough 30 33 28 23 27 27 27 37 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 -
Question 11. Is your opinion of J.D. Vance favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 35% 67% 5% 34% 37% 33% 22% 47% Unfavorable 45 12 83 44 40 50 66 31 Hvn't hrd enough 19 21 11 21 22 17 11 21 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 25% 23% 46% 40% 41% 34% 38% 9% Unfavorable 44 55 41 45 38 50 44 63 Hvn't hrd enough 30 21 12 15 20 15 17 28 REFUSED - 1 - - 1 - 1 1 -
Question 12. Is your opinion of Tim Walz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 36% 6% 71% 30% 31% 40% 53% 24% Unfavorable 29 53 4 33 35 24 21 36 Hvn't hrd enough 35 40 24 37 33 36 25 40 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 36% 40% 32% 37% 31% 39% 35% 53% Unfavorable 21 23 36 33 36 25 30 7 Hvn't hrd enough 43 36 32 28 32 36 34 39 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 -
Question 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Josh Shapiro is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 59% 32% 91% 57% 55% 64% 75% 51% Disapprove 28 51 3 30 34 23 18 36 DK/NA 12 16 6 12 11 13 8 13 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 50% 65% 56% 67% 55% 65% 60% 72% Disapprove 33 24 34 23 33 25 29 11 DK/NA 17 11 10 11 11 11 11 17 -
Question 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 47% 18% 81% 43% 42% 52% 64% 37% Disapprove 38 67 6 43 44 33 26 48 DK/NA 15 15 12 14 14 16 11 15 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 41% 52% 42% 51% 42% 52% 47% 66% Disapprove 30 32 46 41 46 34 40 14 DK/NA 29 16 12 8 12 15 13 21 -
Question 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Fetterman is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 48% 25% 74% 46% 44% 52% 57% 41% Disapprove 37 59 14 40 43 31 30 47 DK/NA 15 16 13 14 13 17 13 12 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 39% 49% 47% 57% 42% 53% 47% 65% Disapprove 42 33 43 30 49 33 40 14 DK/NA 19 18 10 13 10 15 12 21 -
Question 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 41% 7% 82% 34% 35% 47% 59% 28% Disapprove 55 91 13 64 61 49 38 69 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 3 4 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 47% 38% 47% 33% 46% 40% 59% Disapprove 61 49 60 51 65 51 58 33 DK/NA 8 4 2 2 2 3 2 8 -
Question 17. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for president: the economy, climate change, health care, racial inequality, immigration, abortion, gun violence, crime, preserving democracy in the United States, the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, the Russia-Ukraine war, or energy policy?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 32% 50% 13% 33% 36% 28% 24% 39% Climate change 4 - 6 5 3 5 4 4 Health care 3 1 6 2 3 4 3 4 Racial inequality 2 1 3 3 2 2 1 1 Immigration 10 20 1 10 11 10 6 12 Abortion 9 6 16 6 5 14 13 7 Gun violence 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 Crime 1 1 2 2 1 2 - 1 Preserving democracy 25 9 42 23 26 25 39 19 Israel-Hamas war 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 Russia-Ukraine war 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 Energy policy 2 2 - 2 2 1 - 2 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 1 1 3 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Economy 27% 33% 42% 26% 37% 30% 33% 10% Climate change 11 2 1 4 4 4 4 6 Health care 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 6 Racial inequality 6 4 1 - - 1 1 13 Immigration 5 6 10 15 11 9 10 1 Abortion 10 13 6 8 5 14 9 9 Gun violence 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 4 Crime 3 1 - 2 1 1 1 9 Preserving democracy 14 27 27 30 28 26 27 29 Israel-Hamas war 7 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 Russia-Ukraine war 5 1 1 1 2 1 2 - Energy policy 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 - SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 1 4 1 4 2 2 2 7 -
Question 18. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 37% 72% 5% 34% 39% 35% 22% 48% No 60 25 93 63 58 62 77 47 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 31% 29% 42% 41% 42% 35% 38% 15% No 67 68 54 56 55 61 58 84 DK/NA 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 1 -
Question 19. Would you say that - Kamala Harris is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 46% 12% 85% 39% 41% 51% 64% 33% No 48 84 9 52 54 43 30 61 DK/NA 6 4 6 10 6 7 5 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 41% 52% 42% 50% 38% 51% 45% 68% No 48 42 53 46 56 43 49 22 DK/NA 10 6 4 4 6 6 6 10 -
Question 20. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about average Americans, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 46% 88% 6% 44% 49% 43% 31% 61% No 54 12 93 55 51 56 69 38 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 38% 36% 54% 48% 54% 45% 49% 12% No 61 63 46 52 46 53 50 87 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 -
Question 21. Would you say that - Kamala Harris cares about average Americans, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 50% 16% 90% 45% 45% 56% 70% 37% No 47 83 8 53 53 42 28 61 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 49% 60% 44% 51% 44% 55% 50% 76% No 47 39 53 47 54 43 48 17 DK/NA 4 1 3 2 2 2 2 6 -
Question 22. Would you say that - Donald Trump has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 50% 88% 10% 53% 55% 45% 33% 64% No 49 11 89 46 44 54 66 35 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 53% 42% 56% 48% 58% 48% 52% 22% No 46 58 44 51 42 51 47 78 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 23. Would you say that - Kamala Harris has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 48% 12% 88% 45% 42% 54% 62% 35% No 47 86 8 49 52 42 32 60 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 6 4 5 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 57% 54% 40% 48% 38% 52% 45% 81% No 38 40 56 47 56 44 49 13 DK/NA 5 6 4 5 6 4 5 6 -
Question 24. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 46% 84% 7% 50% 53% 40% 28% 61% No 53 15 92 49 47 58 71 37 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 46% 41% 53% 45% 55% 43% 49% 19% No 54 59 46 53 44 55 50 81 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 2 1 - -
Question 25. Would you say that - Kamala Harris has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 52% 12% 91% 51% 47% 56% 69% 37% No 46 87 8 46 51 42 30 60 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 58% 61% 43% 50% 43% 55% 49% 83% No 39 38 56 47 55 43 49 14 DK/NA 3 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 -
Question 26. Does Kamala Harris' selection of Tim Walz to be her vice-presidential running mate make you more enthusiastic about her candidacy, less enthusiastic about her candidacy, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More enthusiastic 30% 6% 58% 26% 26% 33% 48% 18% Less enthusiastic 26 49 5 25 29 22 17 34 No difference 43 44 37 47 44 42 34 45 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk More enthusiastic 29% 31% 27% 33% 25% 33% 30% 46% Less enthusiastic 18 22 29 30 32 23 28 12 No difference 53 46 42 34 41 41 41 41 DK/NA - 1 2 3 1 3 2 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Harris More enthusiastic 59% Less enthusiastic 2 No difference 38 DK/NA 1 -
Question 27. Does Donald Trump's selection of J.D. Vance to be his vice-presidential running mate make you more enthusiastic about his candidacy, less enthusiastic about his candidacy, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More enthusiastic 21% 42% 4% 16% 22% 20% 14% 28% Less enthusiastic 26 9 43 29 25 27 31 21 No difference 52 48 52 55 52 52 54 51 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk More enthusiastic 14% 14% 23% 30% 24% 21% 22% 9% Less enthusiastic 37 26 22 25 22 28 25 40 No difference 49 59 54 45 54 51 52 50 DK/NA - - 1 1 1 1 1 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Trump More enthusiastic 43% Less enthusiastic 6 No difference 50 DK/NA 1