Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro Hits 60% Job Approval, Leads Republicans In 2026, 2028 Matchups, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Dems Sour On Fetterman While GOP Voters Approve Of Him
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As Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro winds down his third year in office, voters 60 - 28 percent approve of the job he's doing with 11 percent not offering an opinion, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea- ack) University poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania released today.
This is the highest job approval rating for Shapiro since the Quinnipiac University Poll began asking this question of registered voters in Pennsylvania in June 2023.
Up until today, Shapiro's highest job approval rating was 59 percent in January 2024.
His disapproval rating of 28 percent is also his highest. His previous high was 27 percent disapproval in October 2023.
In today's poll, Democrats (93 - 3 percent) and independents (66 - 20 percent) approve of the job Shapiro is doing, while Republicans (57 - 28 percent) disapprove.
2026 GOVERNOR'S RACE
It is widely anticipated that Shapiro will seek re-election as governor in 2026. A hypothetical matchup shows Shapiro ahead of Republican candidate Stacy Garrity 55 - 39 percent.
In another hypothetical 2026 matchup pitting Shapiro against his former 2022 Republican rival Doug Mastriano, should Mastriano run, Shapiro leads 56 - 39 percent.
"Governor Josh Shapiro clinches an enviable 60 percent job approval and leaves his two potential gubernatorial challengers in the rear-view mirror in a very early look at Pennsylvania's 2026 gubernatorial race," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
2028 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In a completely hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup pitting Shapiro, the Democrat, against Vice President J.D. Vance, the Republican, in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, Shapiro leads Vance 53 - 43 percent.
Democrats 97 - 1 percent say they would vote for Shapiro, while Republicans 89 - 10 percent say they would vote for Vance. Coveted independents 58 - 33 percent say they would vote for Shapiro.
"With the caveats that it's a long way off and it's a purely hypothetical race, native son Shapiro looks to have a healthy lead over potential opponent Vice President Vance," added Malloy.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Voters were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Josh Shapiro: 58 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable, 11 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Stacy Garrity: 13 percent favorable, 12 percent unfavorable, 73 percent haven't heard enough about her;
- Doug Mastriano: 23 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable, 41 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- J.D. Vance: 43 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable, 8 percent haven't heard enough about him.
JOB APPROVALS
Voters are divided on the way Dave McCormick is handling his job as United States Senator, with 39 percent approving, 35 percent disapproving, and 26 percent not offering an opinion.
Voters 46 - 38 percent approve of the way John Fetterman is handling his job as United States Senator, with 16 percent not offering an opinion. This compares to Quinnipiac University's January 10, 2024 poll when 45 percent of voters approved of the job Fetterman was doing, 42 percent disapproved, and 13 percent did not offer an opinion.
In today's poll, Republicans 62 - 21 percent approve of the way Fetterman is handling his job, while Democrats 54 - 33 percent disapprove. Independents are evenly split, with 43 percent approving and 43 percent disapproving.
In January 2024, Republicans 75 - 16 percent disapproved of the way Fetterman was handling his job, while Democrats 80 - 10 percent approved. Independents were mixed, with 42 percent approving and 43 percent disapproving.
"One-time Democratic darling John Fetterman flips the approval script as Republicans embrace him and Democrats give him low marks nearly two years after GOP voters wouldn't give him the time of day," added Malloy.
STATE BUDGET
Pennsylvania is three months overdue on passing a state budget. When voters were asked who they blame more for the state legislature not yet having passed a budget for the current fiscal year, 46 percent of voters say both the Democratic-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate equally, 26 percent say the Republican- controlled Senate, and 21 percent say the Democratic-controlled House.
PENNSYLVANIA ECONOMY
Forty-six percent of voters describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as either excellent (2 percent) or good (44 percent), while 52 percent describe it as either not so good (38 percent) or poor (14 percent).
This compares to February 2020, the last time Quinnipiac University asked this question of Pennsylvania registered voters, when 70 percent of voters described the state of Pennsylvania's economy as either excellent (12 percent) or good (58 percent) and 29 percent described it as either not so good (22 percent) or poor (7 percent).
In today's poll, when asked whether Pennsylvania's economy has gotten better since Donald Trump became president in January, gotten worse, or remained about the same, 41 percent of voters say it has gotten worse, 36 percent say it has remained about the same, and 21 percent say it has gotten better.
PRESIDENT TRUMP
Forty-three percent of registered voters in Pennsylvania approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 54 percent disapprove.
Republicans (90 - 8 percent) approve, while Democrats (96 - 2 percent) and independents (64 - 29 percent) disapprove.
1,579 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed from September 25th - 29th with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Shapiro the Democrat and Stacy Garrity the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Shapiro 55% 13% 98% 61% 48% 61% 68% 41% Garrity 39 82 1 27 45 34 30 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 4 1 8 4 4 2 4 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Shapiro 64% 57% 49% 56% 45% 57% 52% 89% Garrity 27 38 47 39 50 39 44 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 6 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 2. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Shapiro the Democrat and Doug Mastriano the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Shapiro 56% 14% 98% 65% 50% 62% 69% 40% Mastriano 39 82 - 26 44 33 29 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 3 2 8 4 4 2 5 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 - 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Shapiro 65% 60% 51% 56% 45% 57% 51% 91% Mastriano 27 38 46 40 50 39 44 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 7 1 3 3 3 4 4 1 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - -
Question 3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Shapiro the Democrat and J.D. Vance the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Shapiro 53% 10% 97% 58% 45% 60% 62% 38% Vance 43 89 1 33 52 35 35 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 1 1 7 1 4 1 3 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 - 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Shapiro 64% 57% 48% 50% 40% 54% 47% 89% Vance 29 41 50 48 57 42 49 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 5 1 1 2 2 4 3 1 REFUSED 2 - - - 1 - 1 1 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Josh Shapiro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 58% 26% 92% 62% 53% 63% 71% 48% Unfavorable 28 59 3 16 33 23 23 36 Hvn't hrd enough 11 12 5 19 11 12 5 13 REFUSED 2 3 - 3 2 2 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 62% 57% 55% 63% 52% 61% 57% 77% Unfavorable 11 31 34 29 36 27 31 5 Hvn't hrd enough 26 10 9 6 9 10 10 18 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Stacy Garrity favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 13% 26% 3% 8% 14% 12% 14% 15% Unfavorable 12 4 20 14 12 12 16 9 Hvn't hrd enough 73 70 75 77 72 75 70 75 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 10% 10% 17% 14% 15% 14% 15% 6% Unfavorable 14 15 11 10 11 13 12 17 Hvn't hrd enough 75 75 72 75 73 73 73 75 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - 1 2 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Doug Mastriano favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 23% 46% 3% 17% 28% 19% 19% 31% Unfavorable 35 9 61 40 30 39 52 25 Hvn't hrd enough 41 44 36 42 40 41 29 43 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 18% 18% 29% 25% 30% 23% 27% 7% Unfavorable 29 37 34 39 31 39 35 43 Hvn't hrd enough 52 44 36 35 38 37 37 48 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 2 -
Question 7. Is your opinion of J.D. Vance favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 43% 87% 3% 32% 50% 36% 37% 56% Unfavorable 47 7 88 52 41 53 60 33 Hvn't hrd enough 8 6 8 11 7 9 3 9 REFUSED 2 - - 4 2 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 29% 41% 49% 47% 56% 42% 48% 8% Unfavorable 59 48 43 45 37 49 43 73 Hvn't hrd enough 10 10 7 6 6 7 7 18 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 - -
Question 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Josh Shapiro is handling his job as governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 60% 28% 93% 66% 54% 65% 72% 50% Disapprove 28 57 3 20 34 23 23 37 DK/NA 11 14 4 15 11 12 6 14 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 61% 57% 61% 64% 52% 63% 58% 86% Disapprove 17 32 32 26 38 26 31 5 DK/NA 22 11 7 9 10 11 11 8 -
Question 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dave McCormick is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 64% 14% 39% 46% 33% 35% 50% Disapprove 35 13 61 33 32 38 46 26 DK/NA 26 24 26 28 22 30 20 24 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 26% 32% 46% 49% 53% 37% 44% 22% Disapprove 42 38 30 32 28 38 33 41 DK/NA 32 30 24 19 18 26 22 37 -
Question 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Fetterman is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 46% 62% 33% 43% 51% 42% 43% 53% Disapprove 38 21 54 43 38 38 46 32 DK/NA 16 16 13 15 11 20 11 14 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 28% 41% 54% 59% 56% 43% 49% 43% Disapprove 52 43 35 27 34 41 38 38 DK/NA 20 16 11 14 10 16 13 19 -
Question 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 43% 90% 2% 29% 51% 36% 33% 59% Disapprove 54 8 96 64 45 61 64 38 DK/NA 4 2 2 7 4 3 3 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 27% 42% 48% 48% 57% 42% 49% 4% Disapprove 68 56 50 50 40 55 48 91 DK/NA 5 3 2 2 3 2 3 6 -
Question 12. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Excellent 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% Good 44 42 46 45 47 40 57 40 Not so good 38 41 39 33 35 42 32 42 Poor 14 14 11 18 14 14 6 16 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Excellent 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Good 29 47 44 53 49 44 46 28 Not so good 45 34 40 37 36 40 38 49 Poor 21 17 15 6 11 13 12 20 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 -
Question 13. Would you say Pennsylvania's economy has gotten better since Donald Trump became president in January, gotten worse, or remained about the same?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Better 21% 46% 1% 14% 27% 16% 17% 29% Worse 41 7 75 44 31 49 48 31 The same 36 46 23 39 40 32 33 38 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Better 12% 22% 26% 23% 30% 19% 24% 2% Worse 47 39 38 42 29 45 37 65 The same 40 38 35 33 40 33 36 32 DK/NA 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 -
Question 13a. Would you say Pennsylvania's economy has gotten better since Donald Trump became president in January, gotten worse, or remained about the same? COMBINED WITH: (If better/worse q13) Would you say it has gotten much better/worse or better/worse but not much?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Much better 11% 25% - 5% 13% 9% 10% 14% Better but not much 10 19 1 8 13 7 7 14 The same 36 46 23 39 40 32 33 38 Worse but not much 13 4 20 17 12 13 18 8 Much worse 26 3 52 24 18 33 29 22 DK/NA 5 4 4 7 4 6 4 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Much better 4% 10% 12% 14% 15% 10% 12% 1% Better but not much 8 10 13 8 14 9 11 - The same 40 38 35 33 40 33 36 32 Worse but not much 22 13 9 10 11 12 12 21 Much worse 20 23 28 30 16 31 24 37 DK/NA 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 8 -
Question 14. The state legislature has not yet passed a budget for the current fiscal year. Who do you blame more for this: the Democratic-controlled House, the Republican-controlled Senate, or both equally?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No House 21% 45% 2% 11% 27% 16% 17% 27% Senate 26 2 54 25 21 31 33 16 Both equally 46 45 40 58 47 45 45 49 DK/NA 7 8 4 6 5 8 5 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk House 8% 24% 26% 21% 29% 18% 23% 3% Senate 25 27 26 27 19 26 23 52 Both equally 59 43 42 47 47 48 48 41 DK/NA 8 6 6 4 5 8 7 4