NY Governor's Race: Hochul Up 19 Points Over Blakeman With The Cost Of Living & Economy Top Of Voters' Minds, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Senator Chuck Schumer's Job Approval: 36%
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Less than six weeks until Election Day, Democratic incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman with 58 percent of likely voters supporting Hochul and 39 percent supporting Blakeman, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University New York State poll of likely voters released today. Three percent of likely voters did not choose a candidate.
Democrats (89 - 6 percent) support Hochul, while Republicans (90 - 8 percent) support Blakeman. Among independents, 51 percent support Hochul, while 45 percent support Blakeman.
Forty-six percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Kathy Hochul, while 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 10 percent haven't heard enough about her.
Thirty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bruce Blakeman, while 36 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 34 percent haven't heard enough about him.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
When likely voters were given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, the cost of living tops the list, with 28 percent, followed by the economy (21 percent) and health care (11 percent). No other issue reaches double digits.
Among Republicans, the top issues are the cost of living (21 percent), immigration (20 percent), the economy (17 percent), taxes (15 percent), and crime (11 percent).
Among Democrats, the top issues are the cost of living (35 percent), the economy (21 percent), and health care (16 percent).
Among independents, the top issues are the cost of living (26 percent), the economy (22 percent), and health care (12 percent).
Among likely voters who say the cost of living is the most important issue, 66 percent support Hochul and 30 percent support Blakeman.
Among likely voters who say the economy is the most important issue, 64 percent support Hochul and 34 percent support Blakeman.
"Four years after Kathy Hochul won the governor's race by single digits, she appears positioned, at the moment, to have a wider lane on the road to being reelected. Likely voters prefer her to be in Albany handling the cost of living and the economy, their top concerns, and that is putting her at a sizable advantage over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow.
PERSONAL TRAITS
Likely voters were asked whether they would say each candidate cares about the needs and problems of people like them, has good leadership skills, and is honest:
Cares about the needs and problems of people like them:
- Hochul: 48 percent say yes, 45 percent say no, with 7 percent not offering an opinion;
- Blakeman: 35 percent say yes, 43 percent say no, with 21 percent not offering an opinion.
Good leadership skills:
- Hochul: 48 percent say yes, 45 percent say no, with 7 percent not offering an opinion;
- Blakeman: 34 percent say yes, 38 percent say no, with 28 percent not offering an opinion.
Honest:
- Hochul: 45 percent say yes, 43 percent say no, with 12 percent not offering an opinion;
- Blakeman: 32 percent say yes, 38 percent say no, with 30 percent not offering an opinion.
JOB APPROVALS
Forty-eight percent of likely voters approve of the way Kathy Hochul is handling her job as governor, while 44 percent disapprove, with 8 percent not offering an opinion.
Forty-one percent of likely voters approve of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator, while 33 percent disapprove, with 26 percent not offering an opinion.
Thirty-six percent of likely voters approve of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator, while 54 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.
Among Democrats, 56 percent approve of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator, while 33 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Zohran Mamdani: 46 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable, 15 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 41 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable, 21 percent haven't heard enough about her;
- Chuck Schumer: 34 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable, 12 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- The Democratic Socialists of America: 29 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable, 27 percent haven't heard enough about it;
- The Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement: 29 percent favorable, 62 percent unfavorable, 6 percent haven't heard enough about it.
"As Democrats try to regain control of Congress, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's scores are underwater in his home state. It's worth noting Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is seen in a more positive light at a time when she's being closely watched as she decides her political future and whether it might include a challenge to Schumer," added Snow.
PRESIDENT TRUMP
Twenty-nine percent of likely voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 66 percent disapprove.
Thirty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, 63 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 4 percent haven't heard enough about him.
1,026 New York State likely voters were surveyed from September 17th - 20th with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Kathy Hochul the Democrat and Bruce Blakeman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 58% 8% 89% 51% 52% 63% Blakeman 39 90 6 45 44 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 1 3 1 3 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Hochul 64% 56% 54% 60% 46% 70% 56% Blakeman 27 40 45 38 49 27 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 7 3 1 1 3 2 2 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1 1 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO GOV VOTE Q14 Econ- CostOf Health omy Living Care Hochul 64% 66% 84% Blakeman 34 30 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 4 1 REFUSED - - 2 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Hochul Blakeman Very enthusiastic 38% 29% 51% Smwht enthusiastic 46 51 37 Not so enthusiastic 10 11 7 Not enthus at all 5 7 3 DK/NA 2 1 2 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for governor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Hochul Blakeman Very likely 2% 1% 2% Somewhat likely 7 8 6 Not so likely 11 13 8 Not likely at all 79 76 83 DK/NA 1 1 - -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Kathy Hochul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 10% 75% 36% 41% 50% Unfavorable 43 87 12 52 47 39 Hvn't hrd enough 10 1 12 9 9 10 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 35% 42% 50% 54% 38% 53% 47% Unfavorable 34 50 45 42 53 34 42 Hvn't hrd enough 30 7 3 3 8 11 10 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Bruce Blakeman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 77% 6% 28% 34% 26% Unfavorable 36 7 51 34 32 38 Hvn't hrd enough 34 15 42 37 33 34 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 16% 31% 35% 32% 38% 18% 36% Unfavorable 26 34 33 45 34 35 40 Hvn't hrd enough 58 34 30 21 26 47 23 REFUSED - - 1 2 2 - 1 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 82% 6% 27% 34% 26% Unfavorable 63 16 88 62 59 67 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 3 4 4 3 REFUSED 4 - 3 7 3 4 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 15% 34% 37% 31% 33% 24% 33% Unfavorable 70 62 59 66 57 71 60 Hvn't hrd enough 11 2 2 1 5 2 3 REFUSED 4 1 2 3 5 3 3 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Zohran Mamdani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 6% 76% 38% 41% 51% Unfavorable 36 85 10 38 43 30 Hvn't hrd enough 15 9 14 19 14 17 REFUSED 2 - - 5 2 2 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 62% 52% 43% 40% 37% 60% 39% Unfavorable 20 41 42 37 38 29 44 Hvn't hrd enough 16 6 13 22 23 9 14 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 2 3 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 6% 66% 34% 37% 44% Unfavorable 36 75 7 47 45 29 Hvn't hrd enough 21 18 24 19 16 26 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 2 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 38% 44% 42% 41% 34% 50% 37% Unfavorable 22 42 39 40 39 30 43 Hvn't hrd enough 38 15 17 17 27 18 19 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 1 2 2 -
Question 7. Is your opinion of Chuck Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 12% 51% 28% 28% 40% Unfavorable 51 79 33 57 62 42 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 14 11 9 15 REFUSED 2 - 2 5 1 3 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 10% 34% 40% 47% 33% 32% 40% Unfavorable 51 57 52 44 50 55 48 Hvn't hrd enough 39 7 6 6 14 12 9 REFUSED - 1 2 3 3 1 3 -
Question 8. Is your opinion of the Democratic Socialists of America favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 29% 2% 48% 23% 27% 30% Unfavorable 43 88 13 50 52 34 Hvn't hrd enough 27 10 38 25 19 35 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 2 1 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 38% 29% 29% 24% 23% 36% 26% Unfavorable 31 49 42 48 46 37 46 Hvn't hrd enough 31 21 29 27 30 25 27 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1 2 - -
Question 9. Is your opinion of Donald Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 29% 84% 6% 25% 31% 28% Unfavorable 62 12 90 62 59 65 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 4 8 7 5 REFUSED 2 - 1 5 3 2 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Favorable 14% 32% 36% 30% 35% 21% 34% Unfavorable 73 64 58 65 59 71 55 Hvn't hrd enough 9 4 5 3 4 7 6 REFUSED 4 1 1 2 3 1 4 -
Question 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathy Hochul is handling her job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 48% 10% 76% 40% 43% 53% Disapprove 44 88 14 53 49 39 DK/NA 8 2 10 6 9 8 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Approve 43% 46% 47% 54% 40% 54% 52% Disapprove 34 51 47 42 52 36 43 DK/NA 23 3 6 5 8 10 6 -
Question 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 36% 17% 56% 25% 27% 43% Disapprove 54 80 33 63 65 44 DK/NA 10 3 10 12 7 13 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Approve 24% 34% 38% 45% 37% 32% 39% Disapprove 60 60 50 48 53 55 54 DK/NA 17 6 11 7 10 12 8 -
Question 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 41% 23% 60% 34% 31% 50% Disapprove 33 59 19 32 39 27 DK/NA 26 18 21 34 30 23 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Approve 23% 40% 47% 54% 42% 35% 49% Disapprove 30 38 33 30 31 34 32 DK/NA 47 22 21 16 26 31 19 -
Question 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 82% 7% 24% 31% 28% Disapprove 66 15 91 70 64 68 DK/NA 4 3 2 7 5 4 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Approve 13% 32% 35% 31% 34% 22% 34% Disapprove 78 65 61 67 61 75 60 DK/NA 9 3 4 2 5 3 6 -
Question 14. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor: the economy, the cost of living, health care, taxes, energy costs, crime, schools, immigration, affordable housing, or AI data centers?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Economy 21% 17% 21% 22% 22% 20% Cost of living 28 21 35 26 27 29 Health care 11 2 16 12 8 14 Taxes 7 15 3 8 9 6 Energy costs 3 7 1 3 5 1 Crime 5 11 2 5 4 5 Schools 3 1 3 3 2 3 Immigration 9 20 5 7 7 10 Affordable housing 5 1 8 4 6 4 AI data centers 3 1 2 3 2 3 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 5 2 DK/NA 3 1 3 1 3 2 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Economy 11% 20% 24% 21% 19% 21% 24% Cost of living 35 42 25 20 28 31 26 Health care 9 9 12 14 11 9 15 Taxes 6 8 9 7 9 4 10 Energy costs - 3 4 4 5 1 2 Crime 1 4 5 4 4 6 4 Schools 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 Immigration 6 7 7 12 9 10 7 Affordable housing 14 3 4 4 4 6 5 AI data centers 6 1 3 2 3 4 1 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 6 1 2 5 4 4 1 DK/NA 3 1 2 4 3 2 3 -
Question 15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 6% 1% 11% 4% 3% 9% Smwht satisfied 39 11 64 29 34 43 Smwht dissatisfied 19 17 14 25 21 17 Very dissatisfied 35 71 10 41 39 31 DK/NA 2 - 1 1 2 1 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Very satisfied 5% 1% 7% 9% 6% 8% 3% Smwht satisfied 43 44 33 40 35 38 45 Smwht dissatisfied 25 15 16 20 18 22 15 Very dissatisfied 21 40 44 30 40 29 35 DK/NA 5 1 - 1 1 2 2 -
Question 16. Would you describe the state of New York State's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% Good 32 9 47 29 30 33 Not so good 35 35 36 36 37 34 Poor 27 53 12 29 28 27 DK/NA 3 1 2 4 2 4 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Excellent 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% Good 31 30 29 37 26 34 37 Not so good 43 35 35 35 35 35 37 Poor 19 32 34 25 35 23 22 DK/NA 5 2 - 1 2 5 3 -
Question 17. Would you say that Kathy Hochul - has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 10% 77% 41% 40% 56% No 45 85 15 54 54 38 DK/NA 7 5 7 5 7 7 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Yes 43% 47% 49% 55% 41% 53% 52% No 43 50 46 39 53 39 42 DK/NA 14 3 5 6 6 8 6 -
Question 18. Would you say that Bruce Blakeman - has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 34% 79% 12% 34% 37% 31% No 38 8 54 37 38 38 DK/NA 28 12 34 29 25 31 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Yes 25% 34% 44% 32% 39% 27% 37% No 41 39 32 41 33 40 40 DK/NA 34 27 24 27 28 33 22 -
Question 19. Would you say that Kathy Hochul - is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 13% 70% 38% 37% 53% No 43 81 18 48 51 35 DK/NA 12 6 12 14 12 12 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Yes 34% 41% 44% 57% 41% 46% 51% No 43 54 46 32 48 40 37 DK/NA 23 5 10 11 11 13 12 -
Question 20. Would you say that Bruce Blakeman - is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 32% 78% 15% 25% 34% 30% No 38 8 51 42 38 38 DK/NA 30 14 34 33 28 32 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Yes 22% 30% 37% 34% 35% 26% 36% No 42 44 37 38 34 40 42 DK/NA 36 26 26 28 31 34 22 -
Question 21. Would you say that Kathy Hochul - cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 13% 74% 41% 42% 54% No 45 84 19 52 52 39 DK/NA 7 3 7 6 6 7 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Yes 43% 45% 47% 56% 43% 50% 53% No 41 53 48 39 53 40 41 DK/NA 16 3 4 5 4 10 5 -
Question 22. Would you say that Bruce Blakeman - cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 35% 83% 14% 32% 38% 32% No 43 9 63 42 44 43 DK/NA 21 8 23 26 18 24 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Yes 28% 37% 41% 33% 44% 25% 37% No 42 48 41 47 39 45 48 DK/NA 30 15 18 20 17 30 15 -
Question 23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - growing the state's economy: Kathy Hochul or Bruce Blakeman?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 51% 7% 83% 42% 45% 57% Blakeman 41 89 10 48 46 36 DK/NA 8 4 8 10 9 8 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Hochul 55% 52% 45% 54% 45% 60% 47% Blakeman 31 44 47 39 48 31 45 DK/NA 14 4 8 7 7 9 9 -
Question 24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - lowering the cost of living: Kathy Hochul or Bruce Blakeman?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 50% 7% 82% 41% 44% 55% Blakeman 38 88 8 45 45 32 DK/NA 12 4 10 14 11 12 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Hochul 59% 48% 47% 51% 42% 60% 48% Blakeman 28 43 45 35 48 27 42 DK/NA 14 8 9 13 11 13 10 -
Question 25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling taxes: Kathy Hochul or Bruce Blakeman?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 48% 9% 75% 41% 40% 55% Blakeman 43 90 15 49 49 37 DK/NA 9 2 10 10 10 7 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Hochul 52% 50% 45% 52% 41% 55% 49% Blakeman 34 46 49 38 51 33 46 DK/NA 14 5 6 10 9 11 5 -
Question 26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling immigration: Kathy Hochul or Bruce Blakeman?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 50% 7% 82% 39% 44% 55% Blakeman 42 92 11 51 48 38 DK/NA 8 2 7 10 8 8 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Hochul 49% 52% 45% 55% 42% 58% 50% Blakeman 37 45 47 39 50 34 44 DK/NA 14 3 8 5 8 8 6 -
Question 27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job of - handling AI data centers: Kathy Hochul or Bruce Blakeman?
LIKELY VOTERS................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 53% 9% 80% 48% 47% 58% Blakeman 31 80 8 29 36 26 DK/NA 16 11 12 23 17 16 AREA............. AGE IN YRS.............. Up 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ State NYC Sub Hochul 62% 53% 51% 51% 47% 59% 53% Blakeman 18 37 35 33 36 24 34 DK/NA 20 10 15 16 18 17 13