Generic Ballot For Control Of U.S. House: Dems 51%, GOP 39%, Dem Party Ahead On Key Issues, Boosted By Independents, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 71% Prefer Candidates Who Support Stricter AI Guardrails

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Five weeks until Election Day, 51 percent of voters would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 39 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House, with 9 percent not offering an opinion, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll among registered voters released today.

This compares to Quinnipiac's September 10 poll, when 49 percent of voters wanted to see the Democratic Party win control of the House, 38 percent wanted to see the Republican Party win control of the House, and 13 percent did not offer an opinion.

In today's poll, among independents, 54 percent would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the House and 30 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House, with 17 percent not offering an opinion.

JOB APPROVALS: REPUBLICANS & DEMOCRATS

Twenty-six percent of voters approve of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job, while 67 percent disapprove.

Among Republicans, 64 percent approve of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job, while 28 percent disapprove.

Twenty-two percent of voters approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 69 percent disapprove.

Among Democrats, 49 percent approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 43 percent disapprove.

THE PARTIES ON THE ISSUES

Voters were asked which party they think can do a better job handling seven top issues:

  • health care: 55 percent think the Democratic Party, 31 percent think the Republican Party, 8 percent volunteer that there is no difference, with 6 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the cost of living: 49 percent think the Democratic Party, 36 percent think the Republican Party, 9 percent volunteer that there is no difference, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
  • international conflicts: 48 percent think the Democratic Party, 40 percent think the Republican Party, 6 percent volunteer that there is no difference, with 6 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the economy: 48 percent think the Democratic Party, 42 percent think the Republican Party, 6 percent volunteer that there is no difference, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;
  • immigration: 47 percent think the Democratic Party, 44 percent think the Republican Party, 5 percent volunteer that there is no difference, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;
  • corruption in government: 45 percent think the Democratic Party, 33 percent think the Republican Party, 16 percent volunteer that there is no difference, with 6 percent not offering an opinion;
  • artificial intelligence: 42 percent think the Democratic Party, 29 percent think the Republican Party, 13 percent volunteer that there is no difference, with 16 percent not offering an opinion.
"A warning light flashing red for the GOP scrambling to stay in power. From the economy to international conflicts to AI, independent voters are siding with Democrats, even though a vast majority of them disapprove of the job Democrats are currently doing in Congress," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

PRESIDENT TRUMP

Thirty-four percent of voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 61 percent disapprove.

This matches an all-time high disapproval that was last reached in Quinnipiac University's January 18, 2021 poll, when 34 percent of voters approved of the way Trump was handling his job and 61 percent disapproved.

In today's poll, voters were asked about Trump's handling of five issues:

  • the nation's policy toward China: 34 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove, with 13 percent not offering an opinion;
  • foreign policy: 34 percent approve, while 62 percent disapprove, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the economy: 31 percent approve, while 65 percent disapprove, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the situation with Iran: 28 percent approve, while 66 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
  • artificial intelligence: 25 percent approve, while 58 percent disapprove, with 17 percent not offering an opinion.

The approval of Trump's handling of the economy is at an all-time low for both terms. His previous low was in Quinnipiac University's September 10 poll, when 32 percent approved, 65 percent disapproved, and 3 percent did not offer an opinion.

The approval of Trump's handling of the situation with Iran ties his all-time low reached in Quinnipiac University's July 29 poll.

AI & POLITICS

Seventy-one percent of voters say they are more likely to vote for a political candidate who supports stricter guardrails for AI development, while 16 percent say they are more likely to vote for a political candidate who supports expanding AI development, with 2 percent volunteering that there is no difference, and 11 percent not offering an opinion.

AI: SAFETY VS. INNOVATION

When it comes to AI, nearly eight in 10 voters (79 percent) think safety is more important than staying at the forefront of innovation, while 15 percent think staying at the forefront of innovation is more important than safety.

"How concerned are voters about AI's potential to do harm? So concerned that nearly eight out of ten favor safety over the race to dominate development of AI. And voters say they would be more likely to vote for candidates who agree with that course," added Malloy.

AI DATA CENTERS

Seventy-three percent of voters say they would oppose the building of an AI data center in their community, while 21 percent say they would support the building of an AI data center in their community.

Among Republicans, 55 percent say they would oppose the building of an AI data center in their community, while 39 percent say they would support it.

Among Democrats, 85 percent say they would oppose the building of an AI data center in their community, while 12 percent say they would support it.

Among independents, 76 percent say they would oppose the building of an AI data center in their community, while 18 percent say they would support it.

"Data centers, not long ago just the vague description for a network of massive structures needed for an emerging industry, are now the subject of the 'NIMBY' rallying cry. Voters overwhelmingly are saying 'not in my back yard'," added Malloy.

1,032 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from September 24th - 27th with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on probability-based samples using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X @QuinnipiacPoll.

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