Pennsylvania 2024: In Tight Presidential Race, Trump Gets Boost From Men, U.S. Senate Race Tightens, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Reps And Dems Agree: 2024 Presidential Election Is Single Most Important Of Their Lifetimes
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In the final days leading up to the 2024 presidential election in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, former President Donald Trump for the first time is on the upside of a race with Vice President Kamala Harris that is too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released today.
Trump receives 47 percent support among likely voters, Harris receives 46 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support. Two percent of likely voters refused to respond and 1 percent are undecided. This is the closest this multi-candidate race has been in Pennsylvania.
In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 46 percent support, and Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support in a race that was too close to call.
In today's poll, Republicans 90 - 7 percent back Trump, while Democrats 94 - 5 percent back Harris. Independents are split, with 43 percent backing Trump, 43 percent backing Harris, 7 percent backing Stein, and 3 percent backing Oliver.
The gender gap has widened.
Men back Trump 57 - 37 percent, while women back Harris 55 - 39 percent. In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, men backed Trump 52 - 41 percent, while women backed Harris 55 - 40 percent.
In a hypothetical two-way race, 49 percent of likely voters back Trump and 47 percent back Harris.
"The gender gap widens with Trump increasing his lead among men, as what remains a very tight race heads into the final stretch," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling...
- Preserving democracy in the United States: 49 percent say Harris, while 47 percent say Trump;
- The conflict in the Middle East: 52 percent say Trump, while 42 percent say Harris;
- The economy: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
- Immigration: 54 percent say Trump, while 42 percent say Harris;
- Abortion: 53 percent say Harris, while 38 percent say Trump.
When it comes to who they think would do a better job handling a crisis that put the country at great risk, 50 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: PERSONAL TRAITS
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump are honest:
- Harris: 45 percent say yes, 49 percent say no;
- Trump: 41 percent say yes, 54 percent say no.
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump care about the needs and problems of people like them:
- Harris: 50 percent say yes, 47 percent say no;
- Trump: 48 percent say yes, 50 percent say no.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of...
- Kamala Harris: 44 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable;
- Donald Trump: 46 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable.
U.S. SENATE RACE
The race for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania has tightened with incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey holding on to a slight edge over Republican challenger David McCormick 50 - 47 percent among likely voters.
Democrats (93 - 6 percent) and independents (52 - 42 percent) back Casey, while Republicans (88 - 10 percent) back McCormick.
In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, Casey led McCormick 51 - 43 percent.
ELECTION IMPORTANCE
A majority of likely voters (52 percent) see the 2024 election as the single most important election of their lifetimes compared to past presidential elections during their lifetimes, 30 percent see it as more important than most other elections, 16 percent see it as about as important as most other elections, and 1 percent see it as less important than most other elections.
A majority of Republicans (57 percent) and Democrats (55 percent) see it as the most important election of their lifetimes. Among independents, 40 percent see it as the most important election of their lifetimes.
"A deeply divided country finds common ground. More than half of likely voters say November 5, 2024 will mark an unmatched milestone, the most consequential Election Day they have experienced," added Malloy.
VOTING
Nearly 7 in 10 likely voters (68 percent) say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 32 percent say they plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
In the multi-candidate race, 55 percent of likely voters planning to vote in person on Election Day are backing Trump, while 38 percent are backing Harris.
In the multi-candidate race, 63 percent of likely voters planning to vote early by mail or absentee ballot are backing Harris, while 32 percent are backing Trump.
"While a majority of the approximately seven million Pennsylvanians voting will do so at a polling place, possibly two million citizens will have cast their ballot early by mail. History tells us that the candidate who looks like a clear winner on Election night based on Election Day voting could well be a loser once the hand count of the early vote is finally completed," added Malloy.
2,186 likely voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed from October 24th - 28th with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 46% 7% 94% 43% 37% 55% 57% 33% Trump 47 90 5 43 57 39 39 62 Stein 2 - - 7 2 2 1 1 Oliver 1 - - 3 1 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - - REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Harris 54% 43% 43% 49% 33% 51% 42% 72% Trump 36 51 54 48 63 45 53 15 Stein 6 2 - 1 1 - 1 5 Oliver 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - - 5 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 VOTING METHOD Q3 In Mail/ Union Person Absent Hshld Harris 38% 63% 50% Trump 55 32 47 Stein 3 1 - Oliver 1 - 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - REFUSED 2 2 1 -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 47% 7% 94% 46% 38% 55% 59% 33% Trump 49 90 5 49 58 41 39 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - - REFUSED 3 2 1 2 3 3 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Harris 56% 46% 43% 49% 34% 51% 43% 77% Trump 40 52 55 48 64 45 54 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - - 6 REFUSED 3 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 VOTING METHOD Q3 In Mail/ Union Person Absent Hshld Harris 39% 64% 50% Trump 57 33 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - REFUSED 3 2 1 -
Question 2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey the Democrat and David McCormick the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Casey 50% 10% 93% 52% 41% 58% 58% 36% McCormick 47 88 6 42 55 39 40 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 1 1 1 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Casey 61% 44% 45% 51% 36% 52% 45% 83% McCormick 36 51 52 47 61 45 52 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 REFUSED 3 2 2 - 1 2 2 - -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person 68% 78% 53% 69% 71% 64% 62% 72% Mail/Absentee ballot 32 22 46 30 28 36 37 28 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk In person 67% 72% 76% 55% 72% 64% 68% 67% Mail/Absentee ballot 32 28 24 44 27 36 32 33 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 - - - - - - - -
Question 4. Compared to past presidential elections during your lifetime, do you see the 2024 election as: the single most important election of your lifetime, more important than most other elections, about as important as most other elections, or less important than most other elections?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Most important 52% 57% 55% 40% 47% 56% 53% 57% More important 30 28 31 34 32 29 32 29 As important 16 13 13 24 19 14 14 13 Less important 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Most important 34% 43% 57% 66% 50% 59% 55% 38% More important 33 35 30 26 31 29 30 38 As important 33 20 10 7 18 11 14 22 Less important - 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA - 1 1 1 - - - 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Harris Trump Most important 51% 56% More important 32 29 As important 16 14 Less important - 1 DK/NA 1 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 7% 91% 39% 35% 53% 55% 33% Unfavorable 49 88 7 48 58 41 41 62 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 1 11 5 5 2 4 REFUSED 2 1 - 2 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 49% 42% 42% 49% 32% 50% 41% 66% Unfavorable 42 52 54 47 64 46 54 12 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 3 3 3 3 3 20 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 46% 88% 4% 43% 55% 38% 36% 60% Unfavorable 49 10 93 50 41 57 63 36 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 1 5 2 3 1 2 REFUSED 3 1 2 2 3 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 38% 47% 51% 47% 59% 44% 51% 17% Unfavorable 53 50 46 51 38 52 46 71 Hvn't hrd enough 6 1 1 1 - 2 1 9 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 -
Question 7. Would you say that - Kamala Harris is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 45% 11% 87% 42% 35% 54% 56% 34% No 49 84 9 49 58 40 40 60 DK/NA 7 5 5 9 7 6 4 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 45% 43% 44% 50% 33% 50% 42% 68% No 48 51 50 45 61 44 52 20 DK/NA 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 12 -
Question 8. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 41% 77% 5% 38% 47% 34% 31% 54% No 54 18 92 58 47 61 67 40 DK/NA 5 4 3 4 5 5 2 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 36% 41% 42% 43% 53% 39% 45% 22% No 59 54 54 54 44 56 51 74 DK/NA 4 5 5 2 3 5 4 4 -
Question 9. Would you say that - Kamala Harris cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 50% 12% 92% 50% 41% 57% 58% 36% No 47 85 7 46 55 40 40 60 DK/NA 3 3 1 4 4 3 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 57% 47% 46% 51% 37% 52% 45% 76% No 40 50 51 47 60 45 52 21 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 -
Question 10. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 48% 87% 6% 47% 55% 41% 37% 62% No 50 11 93 51 43 57 61 36 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 41% 48% 52% 47% 60% 45% 52% 17% No 57 51 46 51 38 52 46 78 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 3 2 4 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 53% 92% 10% 56% 63% 44% 43% 66% Harris 43 6 88 40 33 53 56 32 DK/NA 3 1 2 4 4 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 49% 57% 56% 50% 67% 48% 57% 26% Harris 47 40 41 48 31 49 41 69 DK/NA 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 5 -
Question 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling immigration: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 54% 92% 11% 57% 63% 45% 44% 66% Harris 42 7 84 38 33 50 54 30 DK/NA 4 2 5 6 4 5 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 49% 56% 57% 51% 67% 49% 57% 31% Harris 46 38 41 45 30 47 39 61 DK/NA 5 6 2 3 3 4 4 8 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - preserving democracy in the United States: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 47% 88% 5% 43% 56% 38% 37% 62% Harris 49 9 93 52 39 58 60 35 DK/NA 4 3 2 4 5 4 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 36% 49% 53% 48% 61% 45% 52% 15% Harris 60 48 43 51 35 52 44 78 DK/NA 4 3 4 2 4 3 4 7 -
Question 14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 38% 74% 4% 32% 44% 33% 31% 49% Harris 53 15 94 58 45 60 64 39 DK/NA 9 11 2 10 11 7 5 12 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 28% 38% 43% 40% 49% 36% 42% 18% Harris 67 52 48 52 40 56 49 76 DK/NA 5 10 9 9 11 7 9 6 -
Question 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the conflict in the Middle East: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 52% 90% 8% 57% 62% 43% 42% 64% Harris 42 7 87 37 31 52 54 31 DK/NA 6 3 5 7 7 5 4 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 47% 55% 55% 50% 65% 48% 56% 24% Harris 46 38 41 47 30 48 39 65 DK/NA 7 6 5 3 5 5 5 11 -
Question 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling a crisis that put the country at great risk: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 50% 89% 9% 51% 58% 42% 40% 62% Harris 45 9 88 44 37 53 57 35 DK/NA 5 2 3 5 4 5 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 44% 50% 56% 49% 63% 46% 54% 36% Harris 49 47 41 50 34 51 43 54 DK/NA 7 3 3 1 3 4 3 10