2024 Race: Trump vs. Harris Too Close To Call, Trump Slightly Ahead In 6-Way Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 62% Say Biden Dropping Out Of Race Right Thing To Do
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One day after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Party nominee, 49 percent of voters support former President Donald Trump and 47 percent of voters support Harris, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. There is no clear leader as the lead is within the margin of error.
The poll was conducted from Friday, July 19th through Sunday, July 21st.
Republicans (93 - 4 percent) and independents (55 - 41 percent) support Trump, while Democrats (97 - 2 percent) support Harris.
In a six-way hypothetical race that includes other candidates, Trump has a slight lead with 45 percent support, Harris receives 41 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 6 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support.
In a head-to-head matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump receives 48 percent support and Biden receives 45 percent support.
In a six-way hypothetical race that includes other candidates, Trumps leads with 44 percent support, Biden receives 39 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 8 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support.
"The dramatic reset at the top of the Democratic ticket does little to move the race as Vice President Harris enters the fray with numbers similar to President Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
BIDEN EXITING THE RACE
Sixty-two percent of voters think President Biden dropping out of the presidential race is the right thing to do, while 27 percent think it is the wrong thing to do.
Democrats 54 - 33 percent think Biden dropping out is the right thing to do.
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL
Voters give President Biden a negative 39 - 57 percent job approval rating. This is little changed from Quinnipiac University's June 26 poll when voters gave Biden a negative 38 - 58 percent job approval rating.
PREFERENCE FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Democrats and Democratic leaning voters were given a list of 10 names of possible Democratic candidates for president instead of Joe Biden and asked who they would most like to see win the Democratic nomination for president.
Vice President Kamala Harris tops the list with 45 percent support, California Governor Gavin Newsom receives 12 percent support, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg receives 11 percent support, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer receives 7 percent support, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear each receive 4 percent support, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly receives 3 percent support, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Colorado Governor Jared Polis each receive 1 percent support.
"The list includes several governors, a U.S. Senator, and a cabinet member, but Vice President Harris's standing far eclipses all her potential Democratic rivals," added Malloy.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Donald Trump: 46 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him - the highest favorability rating for Trump since the Quinnipiac University Poll first asked this question of registered voters in May 2015;
- Joe Biden: 38 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Kamala Harris: 37 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable, 11 percent haven't heard enough about her;
- J.D. Vance: 29 percent favorable, 37 percent unfavorable, 34 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 23 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable, 30 percent haven't heard enough about him.
VIEWS OF TRUMP
In the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, a majority (53 percent) of voters say Trump's reaction has no impact on their view of him, while 30 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, and 15 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him.
Among independents, 58 percent say it has no impact on their view of Trump, while 30 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, and 11 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him.
Nearly half of voters (49 percent) say Trump's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention has no impact on their view of him, while 25 percent say it makes them think more favorably of him, and 20 percent say it makes them think less favorably of him.
After the assassination attempt, former President Trump called for unity in the country. If he is elected president, 48 percent think Trump will increase division in the country, while 42 percent think he will increase unity in the country.
"The former President survives an assassination attempt and gains ground on favorability, but post attack, makes no headway in being seen as a unifier," added Malloy.
J.D. VANCE
Forty-six percent of voters think Donald Trump's selection of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate was a good choice, while 33 percent think it was a bad choice and 21 percent did not offer an opinion.
Among Republicans, 79 percent think Trump's selection was a good choice, while 9 percent think it was a bad choice and 12 percent did not offer an opinion.
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON TRUMP
A plurality of voters (47 percent) think the Director of the Secret Service should resign over the handling of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, while 36 percent think she should not resign and 17 percent did not offer an opinion.
Voters are evenly split on whether there should be a ban on AR-15 rifles like the one used in the attempted assassination of former President Trump, with 47 percent supporting a ban and 47 percent opposing a ban.
1,257 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from July 19th - 21st with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey included 542 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 45% 5% 93% 38% 36% 53% 53% 31% Trump 48 92 2 52 57 40 43 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 1 1 1 REFUSED 3 2 1 3 3 4 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 37% 41% 51% 51% 30% 47% 39% 76% 47% Trump 54 54 44 43 64 48 56 10 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 - - 2 1 - 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 2 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 - 1 3 2 REFUSED 4 2 3 2 2 3 2 5 6
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Question 2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent candidate, Cornel West running as an independent candidate, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 39% 4% 84% 30% 30% 46% 50% 27% Trump 44 90 2 46 53 37 40 61 Kennedy 8 4 8 11 8 7 6 6 West 2 - 3 2 2 2 1 1 Stein 2 - - 4 3 1 1 2 Oliver 1 - - 3 2 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 REFUSED 2 1 - 2 2 3 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 26% 31% 46% 48% 26% 44% 35% 58% 38% Trump 47 51 38 43 61 45 52 10 39 Kennedy 12 7 10 3 6 5 6 12 14 West 3 3 2 2 1 - 1 12 1 Stein 4 3 1 - 2 1 2 - 2 Oliver 4 1 1 - 2 1 2 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 - - - 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) - 1 1 - - 1 - 2 1 REFUSED 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 4
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Question 3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 47% 4% 97% 41% 37% 56% 54% 32% Trump 49 93 2 55 60 40 44 66 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) - - - - - 1 - - REFUSED 2 1 - 1 1 2 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Harris 39% 44% 53% 54% 32% 48% 40% 81% 52% Trump 58 54 45 43 66 49 57 11 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - 1 1 2 - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 1 - - - - - 2 - REFUSED 2 - 1 1 1 2 1 2 2
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Question 4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent candidate, Cornel West running as an independent candidate, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harris 41% 3% 90% 32% 33% 49% 51% 29% Trump 45 90 2 46 53 37 41 61 Kennedy 6 3 5 11 7 6 4 4 West 1 - 2 1 1 1 - 1 Stein 2 - 1 3 3 - 1 2 Oliver 1 1 - 3 1 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 2 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Harris 29% 36% 49% 52% 29% 44% 37% 72% 39% Trump 47 51 39 42 61 46 53 9 39 Kennedy 9 6 8 2 4 4 4 6 13 West 3 - 1 1 1 - - 4 2 Stein 4 3 - - 2 1 1 - 2 Oliver 4 1 1 - 2 1 2 3 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 1 - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 2 1 1 - 1 1 2 4 REFUSED 2 - 1 - - 2 1 2 2
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Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 46% 89% 2% 50% 56% 37% 40% 63% Unfavorable 49 9 96 43 39 58 60 34 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 4 2 2 - 1 REFUSED 2 - 1 3 3 2 - 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 47% 52% 42% 44% 61% 47% 54% 15% 41% Unfavorable 40 45 55 55 36 51 43 79 50 Hvn't hrd enough 8 2 1 - 1 - 1 5 6 REFUSED 4 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 2
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Question 6. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 38% 6% 79% 30% 31% 43% 42% 29% Unfavorable 57 92 19 62 64 51 56 69 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 - 4 2 1 - 1 REFUSED 3 1 2 4 2 4 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 21% 34% 45% 49% 26% 41% 34% 65% 43% Unfavorable 67 64 52 47 72 55 63 27 48 Hvn't hrd enough 6 1 1 - - 1 - 1 4 REFUSED 6 1 2 3 1 3 2 6 6
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Question 7. Is your opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 23% 27% 12% 30% 27% 20% 20% 23% Unfavorable 45 32 70 35 42 47 52 42 Hvn't hrd enough 30 39 18 31 29 30 27 34 REFUSED 3 3 - 3 3 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 31% 25% 22% 18% 28% 15% 21% 24% 30% Unfavorable 25 46 47 58 43 46 45 50 38 Hvn't hrd enough 39 26 30 23 27 36 31 23 28 REFUSED 4 3 1 1 2 3 2 3 4
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Question 8. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 37% 5% 80% 28% 29% 44% 46% 26% Unfavorable 51 88 12 56 58 44 47 66 Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 8 15 11 11 7 8 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 20% 33% 44% 50% 23% 41% 33% 64% 41% Unfavorable 55 57 47 43 68 50 59 20 38 Hvn't hrd enough 24 8 8 6 8 7 8 15 19 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 2 1 1 1
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Question 9. Is your opinion of J.D. Vance favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 29% 60% 3% 25% 35% 23% 32% 37% Unfavorable 37 9 71 33 30 43 45 27 Hvn't hrd enough 34 31 26 41 34 33 23 35 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 21% 30% 31% 31% 39% 31% 35% 2% 25% Unfavorable 23 38 40 45 26 40 33 55 37 Hvn't hrd enough 55 32 29 23 33 28 30 43 39 REFUSED 2 - - - 2 2 2 - -
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Question 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 5% 83% 31% 32% 45% 48% 27% Disapprove 57 92 16 63 63 50 51 70 DK/NA 5 3 1 7 4 5 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 19% 33% 48% 49% 27% 43% 35% 68% 37% Disapprove 70 63 50 48 71 54 62 26 54 DK/NA 11 3 2 3 2 2 2 6 9
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Question 10a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q10) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve strongly 24% 3% 56% 16% 17% 30% 29% 19% Approve smwht 15 2 27 15 15 14 19 8 Disapprove smwht 12 7 9 19 11 12 10 8 Disapprove strongly 45 85 7 43 52 39 40 62 DK/NA 5 4 1 7 5 5 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve strongly 3% 15% 33% 39% 15% 29% 22% 44% 23% Approve smwht 15 18 15 9 11 14 13 24 13 Disapprove smwht 28 13 5 6 9 9 9 15 18 Disapprove strongly 42 50 44 42 62 45 53 10 36 DK/NA 11 4 3 3 3 3 3 8 9
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Question 11. Does former President Trump's reaction to the assassination attempt make you think more favorably of him, less favorably of him, or doesn't it have an impact on your view of him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More favorably 30% 60% 4% 30% 35% 26% 26% 43% Less favorably 15 2 32 11 10 19 13 9 No impact 53 38 62 58 54 53 60 47 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 1 2 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More favorably 35% 39% 23% 29% 41% 32% 36% 5% 26% Less favorably 10 12 18 18 7 14 11 25 19 No impact 53 49 58 51 51 54 52 67 53 DK/NA 2 - 1 2 1 1 1 4 2
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Question 12. As you may know, after the assassination attempt, former President Trump called for unity in the country. If Donald Trump is elected president, do you think he will increase unity in the country or increase division in the country?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Increase unity 42% 84% 4% 43% 50% 36% 35% 56% Increase division 48 11 90 46 41 55 59 34 NEITHER(VOL) 3 1 3 4 4 3 2 4 DK/NA 6 4 3 7 6 6 4 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Increase unity 42% 48% 39% 41% 54% 42% 48% 8% 43% Increase division 47 45 53 51 35 51 43 82 47 NEITHER(VOL) 2 5 3 2 5 2 3 1 2 DK/NA 10 2 5 6 6 5 6 8 8
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Question 13. Do you think the Director of the Secret Service should resign over the handling of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Should 47% 72% 22% 51% 55% 40% 47% 56% No 36 17 61 31 27 45 37 28 DK/NA 17 11 17 18 18 16 15 16 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Should 47% 53% 44% 44% 57% 47% 52% 22% 42% No 33 32 39 42 27 37 32 63 43 DK/NA 20 14 17 14 16 16 16 16 15
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Question 14. Do you support or oppose a ban on AR-15 rifles like the one used in the attempted assassination of former President Trump?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 47% 22% 83% 40% 34% 58% 58% 37% Oppose 47 70 13 57 62 34 36 57 DK/NA 7 8 4 3 5 8 6 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 37% 37% 55% 58% 31% 57% 44% 64% 47% Oppose 54 59 40 37 64 35 49 30 45 DK/NA 9 4 5 5 5 8 6 6 8
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Question 15. Do you think Donald Trump's selection of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Good choice 46% 79% 17% 44% 54% 39% 48% 56% Bad choice 33 9 61 31 28 38 35 25 DK/NA 21 12 22 25 19 23 17 18 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Good choice 39% 54% 47% 45% 58% 47% 53% 14% 40% Bad choice 30 34 34 38 23 34 28 66 31 DK/NA 30 12 19 17 19 19 19 20 29
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Question 16. Does former President Trump's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention make you think more favorably of him, less favorably of him, or doesn't it have an impact on your view of him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More favorably 25% 52% 3% 23% 29% 22% 22% 38% Less favorably 20 3 43 16 15 25 25 14 No impact 49 39 51 57 51 47 49 43 DK/NA 5 6 4 3 5 5 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More favorably 28% 28% 20% 27% 34% 30% 32% 4% 20% Less favorably 15 13 23 29 13 22 18 37 20 No impact 52 54 54 40 48 45 46 56 54 DK/NA 6 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 7
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Question 17. Do you think that Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race is the right thing or the wrong thing to do?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Right thing 62% 67% 54% 64% 62% 61% 68% 64% Wrong thing 27 23 33 25 28 26 22 23 DK/NA 12 10 12 10 10 13 10 13 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Right thing 70% 70% 56% 56% 67% 61% 64% 48% 63% Wrong thing 18 21 35 30 24 23 23 43 28 DK/NA 13 9 9 14 9 16 12 9 9
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Question 18. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) A number of Democrats have been talked about as possible Democratic candidates for president instead of Joe Biden. If you had to choose among the following, who would you most like to see win the Democratic nomination for president: Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, or Colorado Governor Jared Polis?
REGISTERED VOTERS................................... DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY PARTYID..... LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Dem DemLn Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Harris 45% 49% 35% 54% 40% 43% 44% 46% Newsom 12 12 10 9 11 14 8 14 Whitmer 7 7 7 12 8 3 7 7 Kelly 3 2 6 1 3 5 5 2 Moore 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Shapiro 4 3 5 2 3 6 2 4 Beshear 4 5 3 3 2 6 3 5 Pritzker 1 - 5 1 - 3 3 1 Buttigieg 11 11 11 12 16 8 15 9 Polis 1 - 6 3 - 1 4 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 9 9 8 1 13 9 6 10