July 17, 2019 - Harris Up As Biden Fades in California Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Warren Leads on Best Ideas; Biden Leads on Beating Trump PDF format Trend Information Sample and Methodology detail Native daughter Kamala Harris comes from behind to win the support of 23 percent of California Democrats and voters leaning Democratic, with 21 percent for former Vice President Joe Biden, leaving the Democratic primary too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. Also in the running are Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 18 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 16 percent. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 3 percent and entrepreneur Andrew Yang has 2 percent. There are four Democratic contenders with 1 percent and 15 candidates scoring less than 1 percent. In an April 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, two weeks before he announced his presidential bid, Biden had 26 percent of California Democrats, with 18 percent for Sanders, 17 percent for Harris and 7 percent for Warren. Looking today at candidates' qualities, California Democrats say: 26 percent that Biden would be the best leader, with 18 percent for Harris, 17 percent for Sanders and 14 percent for Warren; 28 percent that Warren has the best policy ideas, with 20 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Biden and 9 percent for Harris; 45 percent that Biden has the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, with 12 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Harris and 8 percent for Warren. "California Democrats catch the national wave as native daughter Kamala Harris leaps from promising contender to prominent player putting her neck and neck with former Vice President Joseph Biden," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "But who do California Democrats pick as the best candidate to take on President Donald Trump? "Hands down, it's Biden." If Sen. Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, 68 percent of California Democrats say they would be excited. Sen. Warren as the nominee excites 65 percent of California Democrats, with 58 percent excited by the thought of Biden as the nominee and 55 percent excited by the thought of Sanders as the standard-bearer. Trump, Harris, Pelosi Approval Among all California voters, President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 - 60 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 30 - 64 percent April 10. Republicans approve 87 - 9 percent of the job Trump is doing, the only listed party, gender, racial, regional or age group to approve. Trump's scores by region range from a negative 42 - 53 percent inland and in the Valley to a negative 21 - 74 percent in the Bay Area. Harris gets a 45 - 34 percent job approval rating. This compares to a 47 - 30 percent approval rating April 11. Today, negative scores are 11 - 69 percent among Republicans and 36 - 42 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 79 - 9 percent. "Golden State Democrats are excited about Sen. Kamala Harris as a presidential candidate, but all voters are hardly excited about the job she's doing in Washington," Malloy said. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gets a negative 41 - 48 percent job approval rating. Negative grades are 13 - 81 percent among Republicans and 34 - 56 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 69 - 24 percent. From July 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 California voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 519 Democrats and Democratic leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points, including the design effect. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Hsp A lot 45% 52% 50% 39% 44% 45% 54% 39% Some 25 28 24 27 24 27 24 23 Only a little 16 11 16 20 18 15 14 19 None at all 13 8 9 13 12 13 8 18 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 - AREA............................. Inlnd/ Bay L.A. Sthrn AGE IN YRS.............. Coastl Valley Area County Cali 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ A lot 52% 39% 41% 46% 46% 32% 37% 55% 59% Some 24 26 33 25 22 24 32 22 26 Only a little 14 19 12 17 18 17 18 12 12 None at all 8 16 12 11 14 25 13 10 3 DK/NA 1 1 3 1 - 2 1 1 - DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No A lot 48% 65% 50% 37% 46% 49% 58% 45% 53% 44% Some 27 20 28 32 28 25 24 24 32 21 Only a little 17 9 18 20 18 16 13 21 13 20 None at all 8 6 5 11 8 9 5 10 2 15 DK/NA - 1 - - - - - - - - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ A lot 50% 41% 35% 64% 70% 39% 48% 66% Some 24 35 34 16 19 25 31 26 Only a little 16 20 20 12 8 20 17 8 None at all 9 4 11 7 2 16 4 1 DK/NA - - - - 1 - - - 2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Mike Gravel, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Biden 21% 16% 17% 24% 19% 23% 23% 23% 23% 18% Sanders 18 17 23 18 17 19 15 25 14 23 O'Rourke 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 - 2 Harris 23 27 29 20 25 22 26 16 26 20 Warren 16 24 16 11 15 17 17 15 18 14 Booker 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 Gillibrand - - - - - - - - - - Klobuchar - 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 - Castro 1 3 - 1 2 - - 4 1 2 Gabbard - - - 1 1 - - - 1 - Inslee 1 - - 2 2 - - - 1 - Hickenlooper - - - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 3 2 3 4 3 3 4 2 3 3 Yang 2 - 2 3 4 1 - 1 2 2 Williamson - - - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 Moulton - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - de Blasio - - - 1 1 - - 1 - - Gravel - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - - 1 - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 5 9 11 8 11 7 13 8 11 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 23% 16% 15% 23% 34% 21% 17% 23% Sanders 16 29 31 4 8 28 15 13 O'Rourke 1 1 - 4 - 1 1 1 Harris 26 12 20 33 25 18 26 29 Warren 16 14 16 19 17 16 15 20 Booker 1 - 1 - 2 2 1 - Gillibrand - - - - - - - - Klobuchar - - - - 2 - 2 - Castro 2 - 1 - - 1 1 - Gabbard - 1 1 - - 1 - - Inslee 1 - - - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 3 5 3 2 3 1 5 5 Yang 1 7 4 - - 2 - 3 Williamson 1 - - 2 - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - Ryan - - 1 - - - 1 - Moulton - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - de Blasio - - - 1 - - 1 - Gravel - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - Steyer - 1 - 1 - - - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 13 8 7 8 9 14 4 ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1 Little/ A lot Some None Biden 21% 17% 26% Sanders 16 24 17 O'Rourke - 3 1 Harris 28 22 16 Warren 21 11 12 Booker 1 2 - Gillibrand - - - Klobuchar 1 - - Castro 1 1 1 Gabbard 1 - - Inslee - - 3 Hickenlooper - - - Delaney - - - Buttigieg 4 3 - Yang 1 4 3 Williamson - - 2 Messam - - - Ryan - - 1 Moulton - - - Bennet - - - Bullock - - - de Blasio - - 1 Gravel - - - Sestak - - - Steyer - - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 5 12 16 3. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - would be the best leader? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Biden 26% 18% 22% 34% 26% 27% 24% 28% 24% 28% Sanders 17 15 28 14 15 20 12 23 15 21 O'Rourke - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 Harris 18 20 20 16 21 16 21 14 20 15 Warren 14 22 15 9 16 12 16 10 18 9 Booker - 1 - 1 1 - 1 - - - Gillibrand - 1 - - - - 1 - 1 - Klobuchar - - - - - - - - - - Castro - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - 1 Gabbard - - 1 1 1 - 1 - - - Inslee - - - - - - - - - - Hickenlooper - 1 - - - 1 - - - 1 Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 4 3 5 5 5 4 5 3 6 2 Yang - - - - 1 - - 1 - 1 Williamson - - - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 Messam - - - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 Ryan - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 Moulton - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - de Blasio - - - - - - - - - - Gravel 1 - - 2 - 1 - 2 - 2 Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - - - - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 16 16 8 17 12 19 16 16 15 17 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 27% 23% 20% 28% 37% 25% 31% 23% Sanders 16 22 28 8 4 28 12 14 O'Rourke - 1 - 1 - 1 1 - Harris 19 10 16 25 17 12 18 27 Warren 14 13 13 14 14 9 14 19 Booker 1 - - - 2 1 1 - Gillibrand - 1 1 - - - - 1 Klobuchar - - - - 1 - - - Castro 1 - 1 - - 1 - - Gabbard - 2 - 1 - - 1 - Inslee - - - - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - 2 - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 4 6 3 4 6 2 3 7 Yang - 2 1 - - - - - Williamson 1 - - 2 - 1 - - Messam - - - 2 - - - - Ryan - - 1 - - - 1 - Moulton - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - de Blasio - - - - - - - - Gravel - 4 1 - - 2 - - Sestak - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - 1 - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - DK/NA 16 17 16 12 17 17 17 8 4. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best policy ideas? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Biden 11% 6% 9% 14% 9% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% Sanders 20 16 26 19 19 20 12 26 20 19 O'Rourke - - - - - - - - - - Harris 9 10 11 7 7 10 11 6 9 9 Warren 28 39 25 25 31 27 36 22 37 19 Booker 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 - 1 1 Gillibrand - - - - - - - - - - Klobuchar 1 - 3 - - 1 - - - 1 Castro 1 3 - - - 1 - 2 1 - Gabbard - - - 1 1 - - - - - Inslee 1 - - 2 2 - - - 1 - Hickenlooper - 1 - - - 1 - - - 1 Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 3 5 - 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 Yang 2 1 2 3 5 1 1 2 1 4 Williamson - - - - - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 Moulton - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - 1 - - 1 - 1 - - 1 Bullock - - - - - - - - - - de Blasio - - - 1 - 1 - 1 1 - Gravel - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - - 1 - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - 1 - - DK/NA 21 15 21 25 20 22 19 25 14 29 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 11% 10% 9% 10% 16% 11% 12% 9% Sanders 16 34 32 7 6 29 16 15 O'Rourke - 1 - 1 - - 1 - Harris 11 1 6 12 13 6 13 8 Warren 29 26 21 41 36 15 29 47 Booker 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 Gillibrand - 1 - - - - - - Klobuchar 1 - - 2 1 - 3 - Castro 1 - 1 - - - - 2 Gabbard - 1 - - - - - - Inslee 1 - - - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - 2 - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 3 4 1 6 4 3 1 4 Yang 2 5 4 - 1 4 - 2 Williamson - - - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - - - Ryan - - 1 - - - 1 - Moulton - - - - - - - - Bennet - - 1 - - - - 1 Bullock - - - - - - - - de Blasio - 2 - 2 - - 2 - Gravel - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - Steyer - 1 - 1 - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 1 - - DK/NA 23 13 24 16 18 29 19 9 5. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Biden 45% 35% 51% 46% 45% 44% 42% 41% 49% 38% Sanders 12 16 14 10 15 10 10 15 9 16 O'Rourke - - - - - - - - - - Harris 11 13 12 10 13 10 16 9 12 10 Warren 8 12 7 7 9 7 10 11 8 8 Booker - - - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 Gillibrand - - - - - - - - - - Klobuchar - - - - - - - - - - Castro - 1 - - - 1 - 1 1 - Gabbard - - - - - - - - - - Inslee - - - - - - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 - 1 - Yang - - - - 1 - - 1 - 1 Williamson - - - - - - - - - - Messam - - - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 Ryan - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 Moulton - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - de Blasio - - - - - - - - - - Gravel - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - - - - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 2 2 - DK/NA 19 18 15 24 13 24 18 19 17 23 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 45% 43% 39% 55% 48% 42% 40% 52% Sanders 12 15 21 4 1 17 12 8 O'Rourke - 1 - 1 - - 1 - Harris 12 7 8 18 13 7 18 15 Warren 9 5 7 9 13 7 8 12 Booker - - 1 - - 1 - - Gillibrand - 1 - - - - - - Klobuchar - - - - 1 - - - Castro - - 1 - - 1 - - Gabbard - 1 - - - - - - Inslee - - - - - - - - Hickenlooper - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 1 Yang - 2 1 - - - - - Williamson - - - - - - - - Messam - - - 2 - - - - Ryan - - 1 - - - 1 - Moulton - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - de Blasio - - - - - - - - Gravel - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 18 24 19 9 23 23 19 11 6. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you be excited if - Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee for president in 2020, or not? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Yes/Excited 58% 46% 57% 66% 59% 57% 58% 60% 53% 63% No 32 46 33 24 32 32 37 30 35 30 DK/NA 9 7 10 10 8 10 4 10 11 7 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Excited 60% 52% 48% 65% 71% 55% 58% 57% No 31 39 39 31 26 35 32 37 DK/NA 9 9 13 4 4 10 10 5 7. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you be excited if - Bernie Sanders became the Democratic nominee for president in 2020, or not? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Yes/Excited 55% 55% 63% 49% 57% 53% 44% 65% 47% 64% No 39 41 34 43 40 39 52 27 48 30 DK/NA 6 4 2 8 3 8 3 8 6 6 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Excited 53% 62% 71% 43% 35% 69% 46% 43% No 41 31 25 50 59 25 46 54 DK/NA 6 7 4 7 6 6 7 4 8. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you be excited if - Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for president in 2020, or not? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Yes/Excited 68% 78% 68% 64% 67% 69% 77% 63% 71% 64% No 24 18 20 29 27 23 18 31 23 26 DK/NA 8 5 11 8 7 9 5 6 6 10 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Excited 71% 56% 59% 88% 75% 58% 71% 78% No 20 40 30 8 20 30 20 19 DK/NA 9 3 10 4 5 12 8 3 9. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you be excited if - Elizabeth Warren became the Democratic nominee for president in 2020, or not? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Yes/Excited 65% 82% 68% 54% 61% 69% 69% 63% 64% 67% No 24 14 23 32 27 22 26 28 25 23 DK/NA 11 4 9 14 12 10 5 9 11 10 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Excited 67% 59% 65% 71% 66% 57% 66% 75% No 21 35 22 24 29 27 28 21 DK/NA 12 6 14 5 5 16 7 5 10. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Would you be excited if - Pete Buttigieg became the Democratic nominee for president in 2020, or not? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No Yes/Excited 39% 40% 41% 39% 41% 38% 49% 31% 40% 38% No 44 41 46 45 50 40 36 51 41 47 DK/NA 17 20 13 16 9 23 14 18 19 15 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Yes/Excited 40% 34% 31% 52% 47% 35% 36% 51% No 42 53 50 33 39 46 45 39 DK/NA 18 13 19 16 14 20 18 10 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kamala Harris is handling her job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Hsp Approve 45% 11% 79% 36% 44% 46% 46% 41% Disapprove 34 69 9 42 37 31 40 33 DK/NA 21 19 11 22 19 22 14 27 AREA............................. Inlnd/ Bay L.A. Sthrn AGE IN YRS.............. Coastl Valley Area County Cali 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Approve 43% 32% 65% 49% 40% 44% 44% 50% 43% Disapprove 42 41 22 27 40 22 40 34 42 DK/NA 15 27 13 24 20 34 16 16 15 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Hsp Approve 35% 87% 7% 32% 38% 33% 40% 31% Disapprove 60 9 92 61 57 63 56 66 DK/NA 4 4 1 7 5 4 3 3 AREA............................. Inlnd/ Bay L.A. Sthrn AGE IN YRS.............. Coastl Valley Area County Cali 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Approve 35% 42% 21% 34% 40% 28% 34% 38% 44% Disapprove 62 53 74 61 56 69 59 59 54 DK/NA 3 5 5 5 4 4 7 3 2 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nancy Pelosi is handling her job as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Hsp Approve 41% 13% 69% 34% 36% 45% 43% 38% Disapprove 48 81 24 56 53 44 49 45 DK/NA 11 7 8 11 11 11 8 16 AREA............................. Inlnd/ Bay L.A. Sthrn AGE IN YRS.............. Coastl Valley Area County Cali 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Approve 40% 38% 55% 42% 34% 32% 36% 51% 45% Disapprove 52 52 37 47 52 48 55 42 48 DK/NA 8 10 8 11 14 19 9 7 8
