October 10, 2018 - Women Lift Lamont In Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Murphy Up 15 Points In U.S. Senate Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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A 22-percentage point lead among women in the Connecticut governor's race gives Democrat Ned Lamont a 47 - 39 percent likely voter lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski, with 11 percent for independent candidate Oz Griebel, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Women back Lamont over Stefanowski 53 - 31 percent, with 13 percent for Griebel. Men tip Republican 46 - 41 percent, with 9 percent for Griebel. This is the first survey of this race among likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

Lamont tops Stefanowski 87 - 3 percent among Democrats, with 9 percent for Griebel. Stefanowski leads Lamont 90 - 2 percent among Republicans, with 5 percent for Griebel. Independent voters go 42 percent for Lamont, 36 percent for Stefanowski and 18 percent for Griebel.

With 27 days to go, 21 percent of Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Connecticut likely voters don't like their candidates very much, giving Lamont a divided 44 - 45 percent favorability rating and giving Stefanowski a slightly negative 39 - 44 percent. For Griebel, 72 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

"Ned Lamont is ahead in the Connecticut governor's race, but with 27 days to go, Bob Stefanowski is within striking distance," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"The number one issue for Connecticut voters is the economy, and Lamont wins decisively among those voters. Voters also say, however, that the most important quality in a candidate for governor is the ability to bring needed change, and among those voters, Stefanowski wins big."

The economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, 31 percent of Connecticut likely voters say, while 26 percent cite taxes and 24 percent list government spending, with 13 percent for education.

In electing a governor, 30 percent of Connecticut likely voters most want someone who will bring needed change, while 21 percent want someone who shares their values. Another 18 percent want someone who cares about average people and 15 percent most want a governor who is honest.

Supporting a candidate who shares their opinion of President Donald Trump is important to 65 percent of likely voters, 78 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of independent voters. Only 35 percent of voters say it's important to their vote if a candidate shares their opinion of Gov. Dannel Malloy.

Connecticut likely voters disapprove 59 - 39 percent of the way President Trump is doing his job.

Voters disapprove 69 - 23 percent of the job Gov. Dannel Malloy is doing.

"In deciding which candidate to support, President Donald Trump is a more important factor for voters than Gov. Dannel Malloy, although both men appear to be doing damage to their own parties," Dr. Schwartz said.

U. S. Senate Race

In Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Chris Murphy leads business owner Matthew Corey, the Republican challenger, 57 - 42 percent among likely voters. Sen. Murphy is ahead 95 - 4 percent among Democrats and 57 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Corey 96 - 4 percent.

Ten percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Voters give Murphy a 58 - 37 percent favorability rating. For Corey, 57 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

From October 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 767 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Bob Stefanowski the Republican, and Oz Griebel running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ned Lamont the Democrat, Bob Stefanowski the Republican, or Oz Griebel running as an independent candidate?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Lamont               47%     2%    87%    42%    41%    53%    52%    30%
Stefanowski          39     90      3     36     46     31     36     55
Griebel              11      5      9     18      9     13      9     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      3      1      4      3      3      3      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Lamont               37%    49%    43%    62%
Stefanowski          53     34     43     23
Griebel               8     13     11     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      3      3      1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q10
                                   Govt
                     Econ   Taxes  Spend  Eductn
 
Lamont               53%    30%    30%    82%
Stefanowski          37     58     46      3
Griebel               6     10     19     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      2      4      3
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY IN HOW TO VOTE Q11
                            Shares        Bring  Good
                     Honest Values Cares  Change Leader
 
Lamont               51%    59%    71%    23%    46%
Stefanowski          30     32     16     66     28
Griebel              13      5     11      9     22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      5      1      2      4
 
                     IMPORTANCE OF GOV CANDIDATE SHARING OPINION ON
                     TRUMP Q12....        MALLOY Q13...
                     Imp    NotImp        Imp    NotImp
 
Lamont               59%    25%           33%    54%
Stefanowski          30     54            57     29
Griebel               8     18             7     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -             -      -
DK/NA                 3      4             3      3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......................
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1.............
                     Tot    Lamont        Stefanowski   Griebel
 
Mind made up         78%    82%           85%           32%
Might change         21     17            14            63
DK/NA                 1      1             1             5
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            44%     5%    83%    34%    39%    49%    50%    26%
Unfavorable          45     86     10     50     51     40     39     61
Hvn't hrd enough      9      7      5     15      9      9      9     10
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      1      3      2      3
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            34%    47%    40%    56%
Unfavorable          56     39     48     37
Hvn't hrd enough      9     10      9      7
REFUSED               1      4      2      -
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Bob Stefanowski favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            39%    87%     6%    36%    48%    30%    35%    52%
Unfavorable          44      3     74     44     38     50     51     29
Hvn't hrd enough     16      9     19     18     14     18     13     18
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      2      2      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            51%    32%    42%    28%
Unfavorable          34     50     42     49
Hvn't hrd enough     14     16     15     21
REFUSED               1      1      1      2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            18%    14%    16%    23%    16%    19%    18%    15%
Unfavorable           8     15      6      7     10      7     10      7
Hvn't hrd enough     72     69     76     69     72     73     69     77
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      2      2      3      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            14%    20%    17%    21%
Unfavorable          12      6      9      5
Hvn't hrd enough     72     72     72     74
REFUSED               2      2      2      -
 
 
5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Murphy the Democrat and Matthew Corey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Chris Murphy the Democrat or more toward Matthew Corey the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               57%     4%    95%    57%    49%    65%    61%    41%
Corey                42     96      4     39     50     33     37     57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      2      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Murphy               43%    64%    53%    71%
Corey                55     34     45     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 2      1      1      1
 
 
5a. (If candidate chosen q5) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q5..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q5
                     Tot    Murphy        Corey
 
Mind made up         90%    92%           88%
Might change         10      8            12
DK/NA                 -      -             -
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            58%     9%    91%    59%    54%    62%    62%    45%
Unfavorable          37     87      4     34     43     30     32     51
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      4      7      3      7      5      3
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      -      1      -      -
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            48%    63%    56%    68%
Unfavorable          48     31     40     24
Hvn't hrd enough      3      5      4      7
REFUSED               -      -      -      1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Matthew Corey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            25%    61%     4%    20%    30%    20%    20%    35%
Unfavorable          15      4     26     10     15     14     16     10
Hvn't hrd enough     57     34     67     68     52     63     61     53
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      3      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            31%    21%    26%    22%
Unfavorable          14     13     14     15
Hvn't hrd enough     52     64     58     60
REFUSED               2      1      2      3
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dannel Malloy is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              23%     2%    43%    21%    20%    27%    26%    15%
Disapprove           69     98     44     72     75     63     67     82
DK/NA                 7      1     13      6      5     10      8      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              18%    26%    22%    33%
Disapprove           79     66     73     54
DK/NA                 3      8      6     13
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              39%    89%     2%    41%    48%    30%    33%    55%
Disapprove           59     10     95     57     50     68     66     44
DK/NA                 2      1      2      2      2      2      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              51%    31%    42%    30%
Disapprove           48     67     57     66
DK/NA                 1      2      1      4
 
 
10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, government spending, transportation, or education?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              31%    29%    32%    28%    33%    28%    33%    33%
Taxes                26     38     18     27     26     27     22     32
Government spending  24     31     17     30     26     23     23     29
Transportation        3      -      5      2      4      1      4      -
Education            13      1     26     10      8     18     16      6
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      -      3      1      2      2      2      -
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Economy              33%    32%    33%    27%
Taxes                26     25     26     29
Government spending  28     22     25     22
Transportation        3      2      2      4
Education             8     16     12     18
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      2      1      1
DK/NA                 2      1      1      -
 
 
11. Thinking about who to vote for in the election for governor, which of the following is most important to you: is it someone who is honest, someone who shares your values, someone who cares about average people, someone who would bring needed change, or someone who has good leadership skills?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Honest               15%    15%    17%    15%    15%    16%    16%    16%
Shares values        21     23     26     16     20     21     28     13
Cares about people   18      6     26     20     16     21     13     21
Bring change         30     45     18     30     30     30     29     33
Good leader          12     10     11     16     14     11     12     12
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      -      1      -      2      -      -      1
DK/NA                 2      2      1      3      3      1      2      4
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Honest               15%    17%    16%    13%
Shares values        22     23     22     16
Cares about people   14     18     16     28
Bring change         31     30     30     31
Good leader          13     11     12     13
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 4      1      3      -
 
 
12. Is supporting a candidate who shares your opinion on President Trump important to you in the election for governor, or is that not important?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Important            65%    58%    78%    61%    60%    70%    65%    67%
Not important        35     41     22     39     40     29     34     33
DK/NA                 -      1      -      -      -      1      1      -
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Important            60%    72%    66%    60%
Not important        40     28     34     40
DK/NA                 -      1      -      -
 
 
13. Is supporting a candidate who shares your opinion on Governor Malloy important to you in the election for governor, or is that not important?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Important            35%    52%    23%    33%    34%    36%    28%    46%
Not important        64     47     76     66     65     63     72     53
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      -      1      1      -
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Important            37%    33%    35%    35%
Not important        63     66     64     65
DK/NA                 -      1      1      -