October 30, 2018 - Connecticut Gov Race Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Murphy Holds 15-Point Lead In U.S. Senate Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Democrat Ned Lamont is on the plus side of a too-close-to-call Connecticut governor's race, with 47 percent of likely voters to Republican Bob Stefanowski's 43 percent and 7 percent for independent candidate Oz Griebel, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 47 - 39 percent Lamont lead over Stefanowski among likely voters, with 11 percent for Griebel, in an October 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University Poll.

Today, women back Lamont over Stefanowski 55 - 34 percent, with 7 percent for Griebel. Men back Stefanowski over Lamont 51 - 38 percent, with 7 percent for Griebel.

Lamont tops Stefanowski 90 - 4 percent among Democrats, with 5 percent for Griebel. Stefanowski leads Lamont 93 - 5 percent among Republicans, with 2 percent for Griebel. Independent voters go 43 percent for Stefanowski, 38 percent for Lamont and 13 percent for Griebel.

Only 4 percent of Connecticut likely voters remain undecided, but 13 percent of those who name a candidate for governor say they might change their mind in the next week.

"This race is looking a lot like the last two elections for governor in Connecticut - a real nail-biter," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"The race is close among independent voters. For Bob Stefanowski to pull ahead, the Republican must do better among this key swing group in blue Connecticut.

"Independent candidate Oz Griebel is no longer in double digits. Will he end up fading by Election Day, as often happens to third party candidates? If so, that could end up benefitting Democrat Ned Lamont, who is the second choice of Griebel voters."

U.S. Senate Race

In the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Chris Murphy leads business owner Matthew Corey, the Republican challenger, 56 - 41 percent among likely voters.

This compares to a 57 - 42 percent lead for Sen. Murphy in an October 10 Quinnipiac University poll.

Today, Murphy is ahead 96 - 3 percent among Democrats and 54 - 42 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Corey 89 - 9 percent.

Only 3 percent of Connecticut likely voters remain undecided and 6 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next week.

From October 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,201 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Bob Stefanowski the Republican, and Oz Griebel running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ned Lamont the Democrat, Bob Stefanowski the Republican, or Oz Griebel running as an independent candidate?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Lamont               47%     5%    90%    38%    38%    55%    52%    33%
Stefanowski          43     93      4     43     51     34     40     54
Griebel               7      2      5     13      7      7      7      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      -      2      6      4      4      1      6
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Lamont               38%    51%    44%    63%
Stefanowski          53     38     46     28
Griebel               7      7      7      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      4      3      3
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Lamont               46%    58%    28%    40%
Stefanowski          47     32     60     48
Griebel               7      8      7      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      2      5      6
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Lamont                3%     7%    88%    90%    37%    39%
Stefanowski          95     89      3      4     44     42
Griebel               1      4      6      4     12     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      -      2      1      6      6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......................
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1.............
                     Tot    Lamont        Stefanowski   Griebel
 
Mind made up         87%    90%           90%           48%
Might change         13     10             9            51
DK/NA                 -      -             -             1
 
 
1b. (If Griebel chosen q1) Who is your second choice: Ned Lamont the Democrat or Bob Stefanowski the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Griebel
                     Chosen Q1
 
Lamont               45%
Stefanowski          23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       7
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -
DK/NA                25
 
 
2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Murphy the Democrat and Matthew Corey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Chris Murphy the Democrat or more toward Matthew Corey the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               56%     9%    96%    54%    48%    64%    62%    41%
Corey                41     89      3     42     50     33     37     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      2      1      3      3      3      1      4
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Murphy               46%    60%    53%    72%
Corey                52     37     45     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      3      2      3
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Murphy               55%    68%    34%    49%
Corey                44     30     62     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      2      4      4
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Murphy                7%    10%    95%    97%    53%    56%
Corey                92     87      3      3     44     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      3      2      -      3      4
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot    Murphy        Corey
 
Mind made up         94%    94%           93%
Might change          6      5             7
DK/NA                 -      -             -