June 27, 2007 - Giuliani Slipping In Swing States As Clinton, Thompson Gain, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Giuliani 48 - Clinton 42; OHIO: Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton, Giuliani tied at 45 Quinnipiac University Polling Logo

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Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is losing ground in the 2008 general election and Republican primaries in three critical states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton ties Giuliani in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who has not formally declared his candidacy, has gained in primary matchups, and passed or tied Arizona Sen. John McCain in all three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Head to head matchups show:
  • Florida - Giuliani beats Clinton 48 - 42 percent, compared to a 47 - 42 percent Giuliani lead June 7;
  • Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to May 16 when Giuliani led 47 - 43 percent;
  • Pennsylvania - Giuliani and Clinton are tied 45 - 45 percent, compared to a 47 - 43 percent Giuliani lead May 31.
"Mayor Rudolph Giuliani's margins against the Democrats in the critical swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida are shrinking, but the differences remain small, especially between the two front-runners, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Mayor Giuliani," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Clinton's numbers are as reliable as a Swiss watch. Her support and lead remain rock solid among the Democrats in these key states."

"If Sen. Obama is catching Clinton in the primary contest, there is no evidence of it in Florida and Ohio. But in November, the large number of non-Democrats who view her negatively keeps a cap on her showing against Republicans," Brown added.

"Giuliani's lead among Republicans continues to dwindle. Perhaps his much-discussed difference with the GOP mainstream over issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control are beginning to take its toll.

"The Fred Thompson express continues to roll. He has passed Sen. John McCain for second place in the Republican field in Florida and Ohio, and caught McCain in Pennsylvania. Now the question is whether his candidacy, once he begins active campaigning, will be as strong in the flesh as it appears on paper." Florida Findings

Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
  • Giuliani tops Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 47 - 39 percent;
  • Giuliani beats former Vice President Al Gore 49 - 40 percent;
  • Clinton gets 44 percent to Arizona Sen. John McCain's 43 percent;
  • Obama and McCain are tied at 42 - 42 percent;
  • McCain gets 44 percent to Gore's 43 percent;
  • Clinton beats Thompson 46 - 41 percent;
  • Gore edges Thompson 45 - 42 percent;
  • Obama gets 43 percent to Thompson's 41 percent.
In a Democratic primary matchup, Clinton gets 38 percent, followed by 15 percent for Obama, 13 percent for Gore and 8 percent for John Edwards.

Among Republicans, Giuliani gets 27 percent, with 21 percent for Thompson, 13 percent for McCain, 7 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 6 percent for Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

By a 54 - 28 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 47 - 47 percent for Clinton;
  • 44 - 29 percent for McCain;
  • 44 - 19 percent for Obama;
  • 47 - 40 percent for Gore;
  • 37 - 32 percent for Edwards;
  • 54 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Ohio Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
  • Giuliani gets 42 percent to Obama's 40 percent;
  • Gore gets 44 percent to Giuliani's 43 percent;
  • Clinton gets 44 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
  • Obama tops McCain 43 - 38 percent;
  • McCain gets 43 percent to Gore's 41 percent;
  • Clinton beats Thompson 47 - 38 percent;
  • Gore tops Thompson 44 - 38 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 43 - 35 percent.
Clinton leads in a Democratic primary matchup with 40 percent, followed by 12 percent each for Obama, Edwards and Gore.

In a Republican primary race, Giuliani gets 25 percent, with 17 percent for Thompson, 16 percent for McCain, 7 percent for Romney and 6 percent for Gingrich.

Ohio voters give Giuliani a 50 - 23 percent favorability rating. For other contenders, favorability ratings are:
  • 47 - 44 percent for Clinton;
  • 47 - 43 percent for Gore;
  • 41 - 28 percent for McCain;
  • 43 - 20 percent for Obama;
  • 45 - 25 percent for Edwards;
  • 61 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 67 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Pennsylvania Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
  • Giuliani gets 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent;
  • Giuliani edges Gore 46 - 44 percent;
  • Clinton beats McCain 46 - 42 percent;
  • Clinton tops Thompson 49 - 38 percent;
  • Obama beats McCain 44 - 39 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 50 - 33 percent;
  • Gore tops McCain 48 - 41 percent;
  • Gore beats Thompson 50 - 37 percent.
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 32 percent, with 18 percent for Obama, 16 percent for Gore and 7 percent for Edwards.

Giuliani leads Republicans with 29 percent, followed by 15 percent each for McCain and Thompson, 5 percent for Gingrich and 3 percent for Romney.

Giuliani gets a 53 - 27 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 48 - 42 percent for Clinton;
  • 52 - 38 percent for Gore;
  • 45 - 28 percent for McCain;
  • 46 - 20 percent for Obama;
  • 43 - 29 percent for Edwards;
  • 58 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
"In these three swing states, Sen. Obama is way behind Sen. Clinton among Democrats and shows no sign of closing the gap in two of them, yet he runs about as well as she does against the leading Republicans," Brown said.

"Sen. McCain, the consensus front-runner six months ago, continues to struggle. It's likely that his support for President Bush on the war is hurting him among Democrats and independents, and his backing of the president's immigration bill is costing him Republican votes. His trend line could become a flat line.

"Former Gov. Romney may be leading in fundraising and in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, but in these swing states he is not a factor in the Republican primary fight."

From June 18 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 949 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 373 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent, and 359 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent;
  • 1,013 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 343 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent, and 370 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent;
  • 958 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 398 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent and 444 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent.



The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        FL      OH     PA  
                                           
Biden                    2%      1%     5%  
Clinton                 38      40     32   
Dodd                     1       -      1   
Edwards                  8      12      7   
Gore                    13      12     16   
Gravel                   -       -      -   
Kucinich                 1       3      1   
Obama                   15      12     18   
Richardson               2       1      2   
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2      2   
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       1      2   
DK/NA                   15      16     15  
 
WITHOUT GORE (Based on second choice of Gore Supporters)
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Biden                    2%      1%      6%
Clinton                 43      46      38 
Dodd                     1       -       1 
Edwards                 11      15      10 
Gravel                   -       -       - 
Kucinich                 1       3       1 
Obama                   16      14      22 
Richardson               2       1       2 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       1       3 
DK/NA                   18      17      15 
 
WITHOUT EDWARDS (Based on second choice of Edwards Supporters)
 
                        FL      OH      PA    
                                              
Biden                    2%      1%      5%   
Clinton                 40      45      35    
Dodd                     2       -       1    
Gore                    15      12      17    
Gravel                   -       -       -    
Kucinich                 2       4       1    
Obama                   16      15      19    
Richardson               2       1       3    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       1       2    
DK/NA                   16      18      16    
 
 
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.........
                                                Jun 7
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom     2007
 
Biden                    2%      2%      1%      2%
Clinton                 38      33      40      34
Dodd                     1       3       -       1
Edwards                  8       8       8      11
Gore                    13      14      11      13
Gravel                   -       -       -       -
Kucinich                 1       4       -       1
Obama                   15      14      16      16
Richardson               2       3       1       5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       5       3       2
DK/NA                   15      11      17      14
 
                                                May 16
OH......................Tot     Men     Wom     2007
                                                  
Biden                    1%      2%      -       1%
Clinton                 40      35      44      38
Dodd                     -       -       -       -
Edwards                 12      13      11      11
Gore                    12      14      10      10
Gravel                   -       -       -       -
Kucinich                 3       6       1       2
Obama                   12      15      10      19
Richardson               1       1       1       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       1       -
DK/NA                   16      10      20      14
 
                                                May 31
PA......................Tot     Men     Wom     2007
 
Biden                    5%      6%      4%      3%
Clinton                 32      26      36      33
Dodd                     1       2       -       -
Edwards                  7       6       9      11
Gore                    16      24      11      16
Gravel                   -       1       -       -
Kucinich                 1       -       1       1
Obama                   18      15      19      13
Richardson               2       3       1       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       4       1       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       3       1       1
DK/NA                   15      11      17      16
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                -       -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       1 
Gingrich                 7       6       5 
Giuliani                27      25      29 
Huckabee                 1       2       1 
Hunter                   -       -       - 
McCain                  13      16      15 
Paul                     2       -       - 
Romney                   6       7       3 
Tancredo                 1       -       - 
Thompson, F.            21      17      15 
Thompson, T.             1       1       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3 
DK/NA                   18      22      24 
 
WITHOUT McCAIN (Based on second choice of McCain supporters)
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                -       -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       1 
Gingrich                 7       7       6 
Giuliani                33      31      34 
Huckabee                 1       3       1 
Hunter                   -       -       - 
Paul                     2       -       - 
Romney                   6       8       5 
Tancredo                 1       -       - 
Thompson, F.            22      18      17 
Thompson, T.             2       1       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       3 
DK/NA                   21      26      28 
 
WITHOUT GINGRICH (Based on second choice of Gingrich supporters)
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                -       -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       1 
Giuliani                29      26      29 
Huckabee                 1       2       1 
Hunter                   -       -       - 
McCain                  13      16      16 
Paul                     2       -       - 
Romney                   8       8       4 
Tancredo                 1       1       - 
Thompson, F.            22      18      15 
Thompson, T.             1       1       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3 
DK/NA                   19      23      25 
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................
                                                WtBrnAgn Jun 7
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl  2007
 
Brownback                -       -       -       -        1%
Gilmore                  -       -       -       -        -
Gingrich                 7      10       3       7        7
Giuliani                27      27      26      26       31
Huckabee                 1       -       1       1        -
Hunter                   -       -       -       -        1
McCain                  13      14      12       8       10
Paul                     2       3       -       -        - 
Romney                   6       6       5       4        8
Tancredo                 1       2       -       1        -
Thompson, F.            21      22      20      24       14
Thompson, T.             1       1       -       1        1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       4       -        3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       5       1       4        3
DK/NA                   18      10      27      24       21
 
                                                WtBrnAgn May 16
OH......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl  2007
 
Brownback                -       -       -       -        -
Gilmore                  -       -       -       -        -
Gingrich                 6       8       3       7        6
Giuliani                25      25      25      24       23
Huckabee                 2       3       2       4        2
Hunter                   -       -       -       -        -
McCain                  16      13      18      16       17
Paul                     -       -       -       -        -
Romney                   7       7       7       7       11
Tancredo                 -       -       -       -        -
Thompson, F.            17      24       9      14       15
Thompson, T.             1       1       1       -        2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       3       2       -        2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       4        2
DK/NA                   22      13      31      24       18
 
                                                WtBrnAgn May 31
PA......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl  2007
 
Brownback                1%      1%      -       1%       1%
Gilmore                  1       2       -       2        -
Gingrich                 5       5       4       8        8
Giuliani                29      28      30      27       28
Huckabee                 1       1       1       2        1
Hunter                   -       -       -       -        -
McCain                  15      15      15      17       11
Paul                     -       -       -       -        1
Romney                   3       3       4       3        9
Tancredo                 -       -       -       -        1
Thompson, F.            15      19      10      15       10
Thompson, T.             1       2       -       -        -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       4       1        2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       5        3
DK/NA                   24      20      28      19       23
 
 
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 42%     43%     45%
Giuliani                48      43      45 
                                           
Obama                   39%     40%     43%
Giuliani                47      42      44 
 
Gore                    40%     44%     44%
Giuliani                49      43      46 
 
Clinton                 44%     44%     46%
McCain                  43      42      42 
 
Obama                   42%     43%     44%
McCain                  42      38      39 
 
Gore                    43%     41%     48%
McCain                  44      43      41 
 
Clinton                 46%     47%     49%
Thompson                41      38      38 
 
Obama                   43%     43%     50%
Thompson                41      35      33 
 
Gore                    45%     44%     50%
Thompson                42      38      37
 
 
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Clinton                 42%     43%     45% 
Giuliani                48      43      45  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       2  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       3  
DK/NA                    5       8       5  
 
 
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                       WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot    Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 42%      6%     83%     34%     36%     47%     26%
Giuliani                48      88      11      47      53      45      63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       3       2       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       4       4       2       2
DK/NA                    5       2       3      11       6       5       6
 
                                                                       WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot    Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 43%      6%     83%     33%     37%     49%     29%
Giuliani                43      85       9      49      50      37      60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       1       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       2       6       5       3       3
DK/NA                    8       4       5      12       7       9       6
 
                                                                       WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot    Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 45%     10%     82%     36%     36%     55%     28%
Giuliani                45      83      14      47      54      36      63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       1       4       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       1       7       3       2       3
DK/NA                    5       5       2       7       5       6       5
 
 
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Obama                   39%     40%     43%
Giuliani                47      42      44 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       3 
DK/NA                    8      12       9 
 
 
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
                             
Obama                   39%      9%     73%     30%     35%     42%     22%
Giuliani                47      85      16      46      51      44      63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       5       4       5       4       5
DK/NA                    8       3       6      16       8       8       7
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
                             
Obama                   40%      7%     73%     31%     38%     41%     26%
Giuliani                42      80      14      46      48      37      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       3       -       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3       5       4       4       4
DK/NA                   12       9       7      17       9      15      16
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
                             
Obama                   43%      9%     73%     42%     37%     48%     25%
Giuliani                44      83      17      37      51      37      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       3       4       3       2       4
DK/NA                    9       6       6      14       7      11      10
 
 
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Gore                    40%     44%     44%
Giuliani                49      43      46 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3 
DK/NA                    6       8       7 
 
 
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    40%      9%     76%     33%     37%     42%     28%
Giuliani                49      86      14      47      51      47      61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       4       3       4       3       4
DK/NA                    6       1       6      13       7       6       5
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    44%      5%     77%     40%     41%     46%     31%
Giuliani                43      86      11      44      47      39      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       4       1       2       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       2       4       4       3       3
DK/NA                    8       5       5      11       6      10       8
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    44%      7%     74%     45%     37%     50%     25%
Giuliani                46      87      17      42      53      38      63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       2       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       4       3       2       3       3
DK/NA                    7       5       4       8       6       7       7
 
 
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA
 
Clinton                 44%     44%     46
McCain                  43      42      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       3
DK/NA                    6       9       6
 
 
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 44%      5%     87%     35%     38%     49%     25%
McCain                  43      86       6      44      47      40      61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       5       2       2       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       2       5       6       3       4
DK/NA                    6       3       4      11       7       5       7
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 44%      5%     84%     37%     39%     49%     30%
McCain                  42      87       9      44      47      37      60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       3       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       1       5       4       3       2
DK/NA                    9       6       5      11       7      10       8
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 46%     11%     83%     37%     37%     55%     28%
McCain                  42      78      14      41      50      34      63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       3       1       6       4       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       1       8       3       3       3
DK/NA                    6       5       2       8       6       6       4
 
 
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
 
Obama                   42%     43%     44%
McCain                  42      38      39 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       5       4 
DK/NA                   10      11      11 
 
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   42%      9%     78%     36%     38%     46%     21%
McCain                  42      82      12      38      46      39      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       1       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       5       3       4       6       3       4
DK/NA                   10       3       6      18       9      10      13
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   43%     11%     75%     37%     44%     43%     27%
McCain                  38      77      12      39      41      36      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       5       2       2       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       2       3       6       5       5       3
DK/NA                   11       9       6      15       8      14      13
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   44%     10%     73%     44%     39%     49%     27%
McCain                  39      75      15      31      44      33      56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       2       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       4       6       4       4       6
DK/NA                   11       9       6      16      10      12       9
 
 
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Gore                    43%     41%     48%
McCain                  44      43      41 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3 
DK/NA                    7      10       6 
 
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    43%      9%     80%     36%     39%     46%     26%
McCain                  44      84      12      40      47      41      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       2       5       5       3       4
DK/NA                    7       3       5      15       6       8       8
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    41%      3%     75%     36%     38%     43%     27%
McCain                  43      87      11      43      48      38      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       3       3       3       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       2       5       4       3       2
DK/NA                   10       6       8      14       7      13      10
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    48%      9%     80%     47%     42%     54%     33%
McCain                  41      82      12      35      46      35      56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       4       3       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       3       6       3       4       4
DK/NA                    6       5       3       8       6       6       5
 
 
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 46%     47%     49%
Thompson                41      38      38 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       2 
DK/NA                    6       9       8 
 
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 46%     10%     89%     37%     39%     53%     28%
Thompson                41      83       5      41      47      37      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       3       2       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       4       2       8       6       3       5
DK/NA                    6       3       4      11       6       6       8
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 47%      7%     88%     40%     41%     53%     32%
Thompson                38      85       5      36      46      31      53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       2       6       4       3       4
DK/NA                    9       5       5      15       8      11      10
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 49%     14%     84%     43%     40%     58%     33%
Thompson                38      74      10      37      46      30      57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       1       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       1       4       2       2       2
DK/NA                    8       7       4      12       9       8       6
 
 
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Obama                   43%     43%     50%
Thompson                41      35      33 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       5       3 
DK/NA                   11      14      13 
 
 
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   43%     11%     79%     38%     38%     47%     25%
Thompson                41      80      11      34      45      37      58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       3       6       6       3       3
DK/NA                   11       6       6      19       9      12      13
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   43%     14%     73%     36%     41%     45%     30%
Thompson                35      73      11      34      44      27      47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       5       2       2       4       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       2       4       7       4       6       4
DK/NA                   14      10       7      21      10      17      16
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   50%     17%     79%     50%     47%     52%     30%
Thompson                33      67      10      29      38      29      51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       1       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       3       4       3       3       3
DK/NA                   13      12       8      15      11      14      14
 
 
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Gore                    45%     44%     50%
Thompson                42      38      37 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       3 
DK/NA                    8      11       8 
 
 
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    45%     11%     85%     37%     41%     49%     30%
Thompson                42      82       7      42      47      37      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       1       3       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       4       3       5       3       3
DK/NA                    8       4       4      15       5      10       7
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    44%      8%     78%     41%     39%     49%     32%
Thompson                38      81      10      35      46      32      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       4       3       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       3       5       3       4       3
DK/NA                   11       8       5      17       9      13      11
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    50%     11%     83%     52%     44%     57%     32%
Thompson                37      76      10      33      43      30      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       2       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       3       2       3       3
DK/NA                    8      10       3      10       9       8       8
 
 
12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                        FL      OH      PA 
 
- Hillary Clinton
Favorable               47%     47%     48%
Unfavorable             47      44      42 
Hvn't hrd enough         4       7       7 
REFUSED                  2       2       3 
 
- John Edwards 
Favorable               37%     45%     43%
Unfavorable             32      25      29 
Hvn't hrd enough        29      28      26 
REFUSED                  2       2       2 
 
- Rudy Giuliani 
Favorable               54%     50%     53%
Unfavorable             28      23      27 
Hvn't hrd enough        16      24      17 
REFUSED                  2       3       3 
 
- Al Gore 
Favorable               47%     47%     52%
Unfavorable             40      43      38 
Hvn't hrd enough        12       8       9 
REFUSED                  1       2       2 
 
- John McCain
Favorable               44%     41%     45%
Unfavorable             29      28      28 
Hvn't hrd enough        23      28      25 
REFUSED                  3       2       3 
 
- Barack Obama
Favorable               44%     43%     46%
Unfavorable             19      20      20 
Hvn't hrd enough        35      36      33 
REFUSED                  2       2       2 
 
- Mitt Romney
Favorable               21%     14%     19%
Unfavorable             16      17      19 
Hvn't hrd enough        60      67      60 
REFUSED                  3       2       1 
 
- Fred Thompson 
Favorable               32%     25%     27%
Unfavorable             12      12      14 
Hvn't hrd enough        54      61      58 
REFUSED                  2       1       1 
 
 
12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
12. - Hillary Clinton   FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Favorable               47%     47%     48%
Unfavorable             47      44      42 
Hvn't hrd enough         4       7       7 
REFUSED                  2       2       3 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               47%     11%     84%     43%     41%     52%     25%
Unfavorable             47      85      11      48      53      42      67
Hvn't hrd enough         4       2       4       7       4       5       6
REFUSED                  2       2       1       3       2       2       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               47%      7%     84%     41%     41%     53%     31%
Unfavorable             44      87      10      46      51      38      59
Hvn't hrd enough         7       5       6      10       7       7       8
REFUSED                  2       1       1       3       1       2       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               48%     17%     78%     45%     40%     57%     32%
Unfavorable             42      77      15      43      49      36      59
Hvn't hrd enough         7       4       5       9       7       6       8
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       3       2       1
 
 
13. - John Edwards FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               37%     45%     43%
Unfavorable             32      25      29 
Hvn't hrd enough        29      28      26 
REFUSED                  2       2       2 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               37%     17%     58%     37%     34%     40%     28%
Unfavorable             32      55      13      29      38      27      37
Hvn't hrd enough        29      26      28      30      24      32      33
REFUSED                  2       1       -       4       4       1       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               45%     20%     68%     41%     45%     45%     40%
Unfavorable             25      53       7      24      34      18      30
Hvn't hrd enough        28      24      24      33      20      35      27
REFUSED                  2       2       2       2       2       2       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               43%     24%     60%     43%     39%     47%     30%
Unfavorable             29      50      14      28      34      25      36
Hvn't hrd enough        26      23      24      28      26      27      32
REFUSED                  2       2       1       1       2       1       1
 
 
14. - Rudy Giuliani FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               54%     50%     53%
Unfavorable             28      23      27 
Hvn't hrd enough        16      24      17 
REFUSED                  2       3       3 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               54%     79%     32%     54%     59%     51%     57%
Unfavorable             28      10      47      25      29      26      22
Hvn't hrd enough        16      10      20      17      10      21      19
REFUSED                  2       1       2       4       3       2       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               50%     72%     32%     53%     53%     48%     53%
Unfavorable             23      10      38      17      27      20      20
Hvn't hrd enough        24      14      27      28      17      30      25
REFUSED                  3       4       2       1       3       2       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               53%     79%     34%     51%     60%     46%     62%
Unfavorable             27       8      38      36      24      30      18
Hvn't hrd enough        17      13      24      11      14      21      18
REFUSED                  3       1       5       3       3       3       2
 
 
15. - Al Gore FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               47%     47%     52%
Unfavorable             40      43      38 
Hvn't hrd enough        12       8       9 
REFUSED                  1       2       2 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               47%     19%     75%     45%     44%     50%     36%
Unfavorable             40      72      12      40      46      36      56
Hvn't hrd enough        12       8      13      12       8      14       8
REFUSED                  1       -       -       3       2       1       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               47%     13%     74%     46%     46%     48%     34%
Unfavorable             43      81      15      42      48      38      53
Hvn't hrd enough         8       6       8      10       4      11      12
REFUSED                  2       1       3       1       1       3       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               52%     18%     78%     55%     46%     57%     32%
Unfavorable             38      74      14      31      42      33      53
Hvn't hrd enough         9       6       7      12      10       8      12
REFUSED                  2       1       1       2       2       2       3
 
 
16. - John McCain FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               44%     41%     45%
Unfavorable             29      28      28 
Hvn't hrd enough        23      28      25 
REFUSED                  3       2       3 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               44%     63%     26%     49%     51%     39%     53%
Unfavorable             29      17      41      28      32      27      21
Hvn't hrd enough        23      17      31      20      14      31      25
REFUSED                  3       3       2       4       3       3       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               41%     61%     26%     40%     46%     38%     46%
Unfavorable             28      16      39      29      32      26      21
Hvn't hrd enough        28      20      32      30      20      35      30
REFUSED                  2       3       2       2       2       2       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               45%     65%     31%     44%     49%     41%     50%
Unfavorable             28      15      36      33      29      26      17
Hvn't hrd enough        25      17      30      21      19      30      30
REFUSED                  3       2       3       2       3       3       2
 
 
17. - Barack Obama FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               44%     43%     46%
Unfavorable             19      20      20 
Hvn't hrd enough        35      36      33 
REFUSED                  2       2       2 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               44%     30%     61%     40%     42%     45%     26%
Unfavorable             19      33       8      17      23      16      33
Hvn't hrd enough        35      36      30      39      32      38      39
REFUSED                  2       1       1       5       3       1       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               43%     29%     60%     37%     42%     44%     33%
Unfavorable             20      35       9      18      23      17      28
Hvn't hrd enough        36      35      30      43      34      38      39
REFUSED                  2       1       1       3       2       2       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               46%     29%     59%     50%     44%     48%     33%
Unfavorable             20      33      12      15      21      18      26
Hvn't hrd enough        33      36      27      33      34      31      40
REFUSED                  2       1       1       2       1       2       1
 
 
18. - Mitt Romney FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               21%     14%     19%
Unfavorable             16      17      19 
Hvn't hrd enough        60      67      60 
REFUSED                  3       2       1 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               21%     38%      7%     21%     27%     17%     26%
Unfavorable             16      12      23      13      19      13      11
Hvn't hrd enough        60      47      69      62      50      69      61
REFUSED                  3       3       2       3       4       1       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               14%     29%      6%      9%     18%     10%     16%
Unfavorable             17      12      24      15      23      11      16
Hvn't hrd enough        67      57      69      73      57      76      67
REFUSED                  2       1       2       3       2       2       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               19%     36%      6%     21%     22%     16%     23%
Unfavorable             19      12      23      25      20      18      11
Hvn't hrd enough        60      52      68      54      56      64      65
REFUSED                  1       1       2       -       1       1       2
 
 
19. - Fred Thompson FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               32%     25%     27%
Unfavorable             12      12      14 
Hvn't hrd enough        54      61      58 
REFUSED                  2       1       1 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               32%     55%     15%     29%     38%     27%     41%
Unfavorable             12       3      19      11      13      10       5
Hvn't hrd enough        54      40      65      56      46      60      53
REFUSED                  2       2       1       3       2       2       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               25%     43%     12%     25%     35%     17%     31%
Unfavorable             12       2      23      10      16       9       6
Hvn't hrd enough        61      54      64      64      48      73      62
REFUSED                  1       1       1       2       1       1       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               27%     49%     11%     24%     33%     20%     32%
Unfavorable             14       6      20      18      13      15       7
Hvn't hrd enough        58      44      67      56      52      64      60
REFUSED                  1       1       1       1       2       1       2