February 27, 2018 - Nelson On Plus Side Of Close Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump, Rubio Have Big Negative Scores, Scott Is Positive PDF format Additional Trend Information Sample and Methodology detail The U.S. Senate campaign in Florida is a real horse race out of the gate as Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson has 46 percent to Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger, with 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. Sen. Nelson leads 46 - 33 percent among independent voters and 87 - 7 percent among Democrats, while Gov. Scott takes Republicans 86 - 7 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. There are wide gender and racial gaps, as men back Scott 49 - 38 percent, while women back Nelson 53 - 35 percent. White voters go Republican 49 - 40 percent. Nelson leads 74 - 15 percent among black voters and 46 - 37 percent among Hispanic voters. Scott, who has a seven-year history of negative approval ratings, gets a positive 49 - 40 percent score, by far his highest score ever. Independent voters are divided 44 - 43 percent, as Republicans approve 80 - 11 percent and Democrats disapprove 69 - 23 percent. Men approve 56 - 36 percent, with women divided 43 - 44 percent. Approval is 55 - 37 percent among white voters and 46 - 38 percent among Hispanic voters. Black voters disapprove 60 - 28 percent. Florida voters approve 48 - 34 percent of the way Nelson is doing his job, consistent with his scores over the last 15 years. Independent voters approve 48 - 31 percent. "Florida's Senate race features probably the two best-known politicians in the Sunshine State. A race between two-term Gov. Rick Scott and four-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson makes this unusual in that most voters probably already have made up their minds," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The race is close, but Nelson's double-digit-lead with independents puts him in slightly better shape eight months from Election Day. This election is likely to be decided by turnout." There are huge gender and racial divisions as Florida voters give President Donald Trump a negative 42 - 54 percent approval rating. Men approve 51 - 45 percent, as women disapprove 61 - 35 percent. White voters approve 52 - 44 percent. Disapproval is 87 - 13 percent among black voters and 63 - 30 percent among Hispanic voters. Republicans approve 81 - 15 percent. Disapproval is 90 - 6 percent among Democrats and 57 - 39 percent among independent voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's approval rating is even worse, a negative 38 - 53 percent. Republicans and white men are the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial groups to approve. Sen. Rubio's approval rating among Republicans is a lackluster 65 - 24 percent. Disapproval is 49 - 44 percent among white voters, 63 - 28 percent among black voters and 66 - 27 percent among Hispanic voters. Governor's Race In a question which does not name candidates, Florida voters say 45 - 37 percent that they would vote for a Democratic candidate for governor this year. Independent voters go Democratic 39 - 28 percent. Candidates for governor are virtually unknown to Florida voters: 84 percent don't know enough about former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham to form an opinion of her; 81 percent don't know enough about former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine; 89 percent don't know enough about Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum; 93 percent don't know enough about business executive Chris King; 75 percent don't know enough about State Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam; 83 percent don't know enough about U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis; 86 percent don't know enough about Florida House Speaker Richard Corcoran. "In the governor's race, none of the candidates is well-known. Florida voters can expect massive - and probably nasty - TV advertising as the candidates for governor try to introduce themselves, and their opponents, to the electorate," Brown added. From February 23 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,156 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Nelson 46% 7% 87% 46% 38% 53% 45% 35% Scott 42 86 7 33 49 35 47 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 6 4 14 9 9 5 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Nelson 45% 42% 49% 48% 31% 48% 40% 74% 46% Scott 35 42 43 42 59 41 49 15 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 15 12 5 7 6 8 7 8 12 2. As you may know, Governor Scott cannot run for governor again due to term limits. Now, thinking about the 2018 election for governor in Florida: If the 2018 election for governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or for the Republican candidate? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Democratic candidate 45% 5% 95% 39% 37% 53% 42% 33% Republican candidate 37 83 1 28 44 30 44 50 NEITHER(VOL) 3 1 1 7 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 14 11 3 27 15 14 12 15 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Democratic candidate 47% 45% 50% 45% 27% 46% 38% 84% 48% Republican candidate 28 39 36 38 57 38 47 7 26 NEITHER(VOL) 7 1 2 3 3 2 2 - 7 DK/NA 18 14 11 14 13 14 14 10 18 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 49% 80% 23% 44% 56% 43% 51% 59% Disapprove 40 11 69 43 36 44 41 32 DK/NA 10 10 8 14 9 12 8 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 43% 45% 51% 52% 65% 46% 55% 28% 46% Disapprove 39 44 42 39 30 42 37 60 38 DK/NA 18 11 7 9 6 12 9 12 16 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 34% 55% 17% 31% 42% 28% 35% 42% Disapprove 50 24 70 54 45 54 51 37 DK/NA 16 20 12 15 14 18 14 21 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 34% 39% 36% 28% 48% 30% 38% 29% 28% Disapprove 46 49 51 53 38 50 44 63 57 DK/NA 20 13 13 19 14 20 17 8 15 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 48% 24% 73% 48% 40% 54% 51% 41% Disapprove 34 54 16 31 44 25 36 38 DK/NA 18 22 10 22 15 21 12 21 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 47% 39% 51% 52% 38% 53% 46% 61% 45% Disapprove 18 42 37 34 48 28 37 30 25 DK/NA 35 19 12 14 14 19 17 9 29 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 38% 65% 15% 34% 43% 34% 43% 45% Disapprove 53 24 79 58 50 57 50 48 DK/NA 9 10 6 8 8 10 8 8 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 32% 40% 39% 36% 52% 37% 44% 28% 27% Disapprove 55 53 53 55 41 55 49 63 66 DK/NA 12 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 7 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 42% 81% 6% 39% 51% 35% 47% 57% Disapprove 54 15 90 57 45 61 50 39 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 31% 43% 44% 44% 64% 42% 52% 13% 30% Disapprove 65 51 54 53 33 54 44 87 63 DK/NA 4 6 2 4 3 4 3 - 7 8. If a candidate for United States Senator supports President Trump, does that make you more likely to vote for them, less likely to vote for them, or doesn't it have an impact either way? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More likely 23% 48% 4% 16% 27% 19% 27% 29% Less likely 42 8 76 43 33 50 43 32 No impact 34 42 20 41 38 31 29 38 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More likely 14% 18% 24% 28% 33% 23% 28% 8% 14% Less likely 49 39 42 44 29 45 38 56 49 No impact 37 42 33 26 37 31 33 35 36 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9. If a candidate for governor supports President Trump, does that make you more likely to vote for them, less likely to vote for them, or doesn't it have an impact either way? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More likely 22% 48% 4% 14% 25% 20% 25% 29% Less likely 42 7 77 42 34 50 43 31 No impact 34 43 18 42 40 29 31 38 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More likely 13% 16% 25% 27% 30% 25% 27% 6% 15% Less likely 47 38 42 45 28 44 37 62 46 No impact 39 44 31 25 40 30 35 29 37 DK/NA 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 10. Is your opinion of Gwen Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 10% 5% 20% 7% 8% 12% 14% 6% Unfavorable 5 7 3 5 8 3 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 84 86 76 88 83 84 81 89 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 - 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 6% 9% 12% 14% 8% 12% 10% 15% 9% Unfavorable 9 5 4 4 6 2 4 2 10 Hvn't hrd enough 84 85 83 81 85 86 85 83 79 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 2 11. Is your opinion of Philip Levine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 12% 7% 20% 9% 9% 14% 15% 11% Unfavorable 7 10 2 9 9 5 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 81 83 78 81 82 80 79 82 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 3% 8% 18% 14% 10% 15% 13% 14% 8% Unfavorable 9 9 5 6 7 5 6 4 10 Hvn't hrd enough 88 83 76 79 82 79 80 81 82 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 - 1 1 - 12. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 7% 2% 12% 6% 6% 7% 8% 5% Unfavorable 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 89 94 84 90 89 90 89 93 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 12% 6% 7% 6% 6% 8% 7% 11% 4% Unfavorable 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 91 89 91 91 90 91 83 90 REFUSED - - - - 1 - - - - 13. Is your opinion of Chris King favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% Unfavorable 3 2 5 3 4 3 2 2 Hvn't hrd enough 93 94 92 93 93 94 96 95 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 7% Unfavorable 4 4 5 2 3 2 2 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 90 93 92 96 95 96 96 91 88 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 - - - 1 14. Is your opinion of Adam Putnam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 15% 23% 7% 13% 19% 11% 19% 16% Unfavorable 10 3 14 13 11 9 10 7 Hvn't hrd enough 75 73 77 73 70 79 69 75 REFUSED 1 1 2 - - 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 12% 15% 15% 17% 24% 12% 18% 6% 9% Unfavorable 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 77 74 73 73 66 77 72 81 77 REFUSED - 1 2 1 - 2 1 - - 15. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 11% 22% 4% 9% 14% 9% 13% 15% Unfavorable 6 3 7 6 6 5 8 4 Hvn't hrd enough 83 75 89 84 80 86 79 81 REFUSED - - - - - - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 5% 9% 10% 16% 17% 12% 14% 6% 5% Unfavorable 5 3 6 8 7 5 6 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 91 88 83 75 76 83 80 89 92 REFUSED - - - - - - - - - 16. Is your opinion of Richard Corcoran favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 4% 6% 2% 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% Unfavorable 9 7 11 10 10 8 14 6 Hvn't hrd enough 86 85 87 85 84 89 82 90 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 - - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 3% 4% 3% 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% Unfavorable 8 7 10 10 10 9 10 5 8 Hvn't hrd enough 88 89 86 84 84 87 86 91 88 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very satisfied 11% 21% 3% 8% 13% 9% 14% 12% Smwht satisfied 44 62 28 41 49 38 40 54 Smwht dissatisfied 26 12 36 30 22 29 26 19 Very dissatisfied 18 4 32 18 14 22 19 14 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 5% 10% 11% 15% 16% 11% 13% 7% 7% Smwht satisfied 42 48 42 41 53 42 47 39 36 Smwht dissatisfied 28 26 27 24 18 26 22 31 33 Very dissatisfied 22 16 20 18 11 20 16 23 22 DK/NA 3 - - 2 1 1 1 1 2
