September 4, 2018 - Florida Governor's Race Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Big Gender And Racial Gaps Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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The Florida governor's race is too close to call, with 50 percent of likely voters for Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, and 47 percent for U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, the Republican, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

There are wide gender and racial gaps, as men back DeSantis 52 - 45 percent, while women back Gillum 55 - 42 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. White voters go Republican by a narrow 52 - 45 percent, as black voters go Democratic 93 - 2 percent. Hispanic voters go 56 percent for DeSantis and 43 percent for Gillum.

Republicans back DeSantis 92 - 6 percent, as Democrats back Gillum 93 - 3 percent. Independent voters go to Gillum 55 - 42 percent.

Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.

Gillum gets a 46 - 33 percent favorability rating, while DeSantis gets a split 45 - 43 percent favorability rating.

Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a slightly negative 47 - 51 percent job approval rating.

"Mayor Andrew Gillum came out of his upset victory in the Florida Democratic primary with a head of steam," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"That momentum shows itself as Gillum hits 50 percent in a neck-and-neck match-up with Republican U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for the four-year lease on the governor's mansion."

"Neither man was well-known before their primaries, but since then the race has become a center of political attention in the state."

"Now, 97 of voters say they will vote for one of the two men, a highly unusual situation this far from the actual voting. Just as unusual, more than 90 percent of Gillum and DeSantis voters say they will not change their minds and are dead set in supporting the candidate they now favor," Brown added.

There is little "Trump effect" in the Florida governor's race as 22 percent of voters say their decision in the race will be more to express support for the president and 24 percent say their vote for governor will be more to express opposition. But 51 percent say Trump is not an important factor in the governor's race.

The economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, 23 percent of Florida likely voters say, with 14 percent each for immigration and health care, 13 percent for gun policy, 12 percent for the environment and 10 percent for education.

Florida likely voters are divided on whether they like DeSantis' positions on issues, as 47 percent say yes and 45 percent say no.

Voters like DeSantis as a person 40 - 33 percent.

By a narrow 46 - 42 percent, voters like Gillum's positions on issues and like him as a person 49 - 13 percent.

From August 30 - September 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 785 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Gillum               50%     6%    93%    55%    45%    55%    49%    40%
DeSantis             47     92      3     42     52     42     50     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      2      4      2      3      3      1      4
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Gillum               37%    52%    45%    93%    43%
DeSantis             61     45     52      2     56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      3      2      5      1
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Gillum        DeSantis
 
Mind made up         94%    94%           93%
Might change          6      6             5
DK/NA                 1      1             1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            46%    10%    84%    47%    42%    50%    44%    36%
Unfavorable          33     62      4     31     38     28     37     37
Hvn't hrd enough     19     27     11     19     18     20     18     25
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      1      1      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            32%    46%    40%    84%    51%
Unfavorable          47     29     37      4     36
Hvn't hrd enough     19     24     22     10     13
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            45%    87%     6%    39%    50%    40%    47%    51%
Unfavorable          43      6     81     45     38     47     46     38
Hvn't hrd enough     11      7     12     14     11     11      6     10
REFUSED               1      1      2      2      1      2      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            56%    43%    49%     5%    58%
Unfavorable          36     47     42     66     31
Hvn't hrd enough      8      8      8     26     11
REFUSED               1      1      1      3      -
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              47%    89%     7%    42%    52%    43%    49%    55%
Disapprove           51      9     93     54     46     55     49     44
DK/NA                 2      2      -      4      2      2      2      -
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              60%    47%    53%    15%    54%
Disapprove           39     52     46     85     39
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      6
 
 
11. Will your vote in this year's election for governor be more to express support for President Trump, more to express opposition to President Trump, or will President Trump not be an important factor in your vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              22%    49%     4%    13%    23%    22%    22%    27%
Opposition           24      3     48     25     22     26     28     20
Not important factor 51     47     44     58     53     49     48     52
DK/NA                 3      1      4      3      2      4      3      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Support              29%    22%    25%     2%    36%
Opposition           19     28     24     26     23
Not important factor 51     48     49     64     40
DK/NA                 2      3      2      8      1
 
 
13. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, health care, education, race relations, the environment, gun policy, or immigration?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              23%    34%    10%    23%    27%    18%    24%    21%
Taxes                 6      9      3      5      5      6      5      7
Health care          14      8     22     13     12     16     11     15
Education            10      5     13     10      8     11      9      4
Race relations        3      1      5      4      2      4      3      2
Environment          12      4     19     12     11     13     18     13
Gun policy           13      7     14     19     17     10     11     15
Immigration          14     25      7     11     13     16     15     17
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      3      -      1      1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 4      4      6      3      3      5      3      4
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              32%    16%    23%    14%    21%
Taxes                 6      6      6      2     12
Health care           8     16     13     20     16
Education             6      7      7     26     11
Race relations        1      3      2      8      3
Environment          13     17     16      3      5
Gun policy           15     11     13     17     14
Immigration          15     17     16      5     16
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      1      2      1      1
DK/NA                 3      4      4      4      1
 
 
14. In general, do you like Ron DeSantis's positions on issues, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Like positions   47%    87%     7%    42%    50%    43%    49%    51%
No                   45      6     85     48     41     49     45     38
DK/NA                 8      7      7     10      9      8      6     11
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Like positions   56%    46%    51%    15%    55%
No                   35     47     41     71     42
DK/NA                 9      7      8     14      3
 
 
15. In general, do you like Andrew Gillum's positions on issues, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Like positions   46%     4%    86%    51%    42%    50%    43%    39%
No                   42     81      5     39     47     37     46     46
DK/NA                12     15      8     11     11     12     10     14
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Like positions   33%    47%    41%    90%    38%
No                   54     39     46      8     51
DK/NA                13     13     13      2     12
 
 
16. In general, do you like Ron DeSantis as a person, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Like as person   40%    73%    12%    35%    44%    37%    41%    43%
No                   33      4     67     33     29     38     35     31
DK/NA                26     23     21     32     28     25     24     25
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Like as person   47%    38%    42%    19%    53%
No                   25     41     34     50     26
DK/NA                28     21     25     31     21
 
 
17. In general, do you like Andrew Gillum as a person, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Like as person   49%    27%    76%    47%    46%    53%    46%    44%
No                   13     25      4     10     15     12     14     11
DK/NA                37     48     21     43     39     36     40     45
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Like as person   38%    51%    45%    85%    49%
No                   16     11     13      2     22
DK/NA                46     38     42     13     30