September 25, 2018 - Nelson Takes Lead In Critical Florida U.S. Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Are Key To Democrat's Lead Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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In the Florida U.S. Senate race, which could be critical to control of the Senate this year, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson moves into a 53 - 46 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 49 percent dead heat in a September 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Today, women back Sen. Nelson 58 - 41 percent as men are divided, with 51 percent for Gov. Scott and 47 percent for the incumbent.

White voters back Scott 53 - 45 percent. Supporting Nelson are black voters 90 - 10 percent and Hispanic voters 61 - 39 percent.

Republicans back Scott 89 - 10 percent. Nelson leads 94 - 5 percent among Democrats and 56 - 40 percent among independent voters.

Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.

Nelson gets a 53 - 41 percent favorability rating, while Scott gets a negative 46 - 51 percent favorability rating.

Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a negative 44 - 54 percent job approval rating.

"Sen. Bill Nelson has edged ahead of Gov. Rick Scott in the race for one of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, breaking a 49 - 49 percent tie between the two men in the previous Quinnipiac University poll of this race earlier this month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Sen. Nelson is ahead 53 - 46 percent by doing a tad better than Gov. Scott with their respective bases and holding a 16-point lead among the key independent voting bloc," Brown added. "Nelson also leads among women and is breaking even among men - the traditional path to a Democratic victory.

"A Nelson win would be a big boost for Democratic hopes of wresting control of the U.S. Senate from the GOP."

Among Florida likely voters, 56 percent say they would like Congress to be "more of a check on President Trump," while 30 percent think, "Congress is doing enough to be a check on President Trump."

Health care is the most important issue to their vote for U.S. Senator, 26 percent of Florida likely voters say, as 19 percent cite the economy, followed by 18 percent for immigration, 15 percent for the Supreme Court and 12 percent who list gun policy.

Wide gender and racial gaps leave Florida likely voters divided on whether the U.S. Senate should confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court, as 47 percent say yes and 48 percent say no.

Women say no to confirmation 54 - 41 percent, while men say yes 55 - 40 percent.

White voters say yes to confirmation 56 - 40 percent. Saying no are black voters 82 - 10 percent and Hispanic voters 55 - 42 percent.

Republicans say yes 92 - 7 percent as Democrats say no 87 - 6 percent. Independent voters are divided as 44 percent say yes and 49 percent say no.

From September 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 888 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Bill Nelson the Democrat or more toward Rick Scott the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Nelson               53%    10%    94%    56%    47%    58%    51%    39%
Scott                46     89      5     40     51     41     47     59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      2      1      2      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Nelson               40%    50%    45%    90%    61%
Scott                58     49     53     10     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      1      1      -      1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q11
                            Health        Gun    Suprm
                     Econ   care   Imgrtn Policy Court
 
Nelson               35%    83%    23%    80%    50%
Scott                62     16     75     20     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      1      2      -      1
 
 
4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    Nelson        Scott
 
Mind made up         94%    95%           93%
Might change          6      5             6
DK/NA                 -      -             -         
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            53%    14%    91%    55%    48%    58%    51%    38%
Unfavorable          41     79      6     38     45     38     45     54
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      2      6      6      3      3      7
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            39%    49%    44%    92%    63%
Unfavorable          53     46     49      7     31
Hvn't hrd enough      7      3      5      1      5
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            46%    88%     8%    38%    49%    43%    44%    60%
Unfavorable          51     11     88     55     47     54     53     38
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1      2      4      3      1      2      2
REFUSED               1      -      1      3      1      2      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            54%    49%    52%    18%    39%
Unfavorable          43     48     45     76     58
Hvn't hrd enough      3      1      2      5      1
REFUSED               -      2      1      1      2
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              44%    88%     3%    40%    51%    38%    47%    60%
Disapprove           54     11     94     57     47     59     52     39
DK/NA                 2      1      3      2      2      2      1      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              60%    47%    53%     4%    38%
Disapprove           39     51     45     92     60
DK/NA                 2      1      2      4      2
 
 
8. As you may know, President Trump has nominated Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Confirm          47%    92%     6%    44%    55%    41%    49%    63%
No                   48      7     87     49     40     54     45     34
DK/NA                 5      2      7      8      5      5      6      3
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Confirm          62%    50%    56%    10%    42%
No                   34     45     40     82     55
DK/NA                 4      5      5      7      3
 
 
9. In general, would you like to see Congress be more of a check on President Trump, or do you think Congress is doing enough to be a check on President Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More of a check      56%    19%    91%    59%    48%    62%    56%    39%
Doing enough         30     58      4     27     37     25     31     44
LESS OF A CHECK(VOL)  4      8      1      5      7      2      5      7
DK/NA                 9     15      4      8      8     10      8     10
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More of a check      41%    54%    48%    91%    63%
Doing enough         41     34     37      4     20
LESS OF A CHECK(VOL)  9      4      6      -      1
DK/NA                 9      9      9      4     15
 
 
11. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for United States Senator this year: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, gun policy, or the Supreme Court?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              19%    25%    11%    21%    24%    14%    17%    19%
Taxes                 5      8      2      6      6      4      4      7
Health care          26      8     40     32     25     28     27     20
Immigration          18     32      7     16     16     20     20     20
Gun policy           12      7     19      8     11     13     10     12
Supreme Court        15     14     17     12     13     16     16     17
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      2      1      2      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 3      4      2      3      3      4      3      4
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              21%    15%    18%    20%    21%
Taxes                 5      6      5      2      8
Health care          22     25     23     41     30
Immigration          21     20     20      6     20
Gun policy            9     13     11     17     12
Supreme Court        16     17     17     12      6
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      2      2      1      -
DK/NA                 4      4      4      1      3