September 26, 2018 - Gillum Up 9 Points In Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Have Little Hope For Better Race Relations Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, crosses the key 50 percent threshold and leads former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis 54 - 45 percent among likely voters in the Florida governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a too-close-to-call outcome in a September 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, showing Mayor Gillum with 50 percent and DeSantis with 47 percent.

Women and independent voters are the main drivers of Gillum's lead:
  • Women back the Democrat 59 - 39 percent, as men are divided, with 51 percent for DeSantis and 48 percent for Gillum.
  • Independent voters back Gillum 56 - 40 percent. Republicans back DeSantis 90 - 9 percent. Gillum leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats.
Black and Hispanic voters also contribute to the Democrat's lead, as black voters back Gillum 98 - 2 percent and Hispanic voters support him 59 - 41 percent. White voters back DeSantis 53 - 45 percent.

Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.

Gillum gets a 55 - 31 percent favorability rating, while DeSantis gets a slightly negative 42 - 47 percent favorability rating.

"Former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis appears to be outspending Mayor Andrew Gillum, his Democratic opponent, in television advertising by a sizable amount, usually a sign of a winning campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Yet, all these TV ads don't seem to be helping DeSantis' campaign."

"Those TV ads, run in an effort to introduce DeSantis to Florida voters, are airing at the same time his favorability numbers are sinking and Mayor Gillum's are rising," Brown added.

"When asked whether they view each of the candidates favorably or unfavorably, Gillum's rating is 24 percentage points positive, and DeSantis' score is 5 points negative. At this point, Gillum's biggest asset is just that voters like him better.

"DeSantis is spending a lot for TV commercials, but they don't seem to be effective."

For 20 percent of Florida likely voters, the economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, as 14 percent name immigration; 14 percent list education; 14 percent cite health care, with 13 percent for the environment and 12 percent for gun policy.

Gillum is too liberal, 39 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 54 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.

DeSantis is too conservative, 39 percent of voters say, as 52 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.

Race Relations in Florida

Only 25 percent of Florida voters say race relations in the state will get better if Gillum is elected, as 27 percent say race relations will get worse and 43 percent say they will stay the same.

If DeSantis is elected governor, race relations will get better, 13 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say race relations will get worse and 45 percent say they will stay the same.

From September 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 888 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Gillum               54%     9%    96%    56%    48%    59%    50%    40%
DeSantis             45     90      2     40     51     39     48     59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      1      2      3      2      2      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Gillum               40%    49%    45%    98%    59%
DeSantis             59     48     53      2     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      2      2      -      1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q10....
                            Health        Gun
                     Econ   care   Imgrtn Policy Eductn Envrnmnt
 
Gillum               24%    76%    19%    65%    84%    83%
DeSantis             73     21     80     35     16     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      2      1      -      -      3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Gillum        DeSantis
 
Mind made up         94%    95%           93%
Might change          6      4             7
DK/NA                 1      1             -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            55%    15%    94%    55%    47%    61%    51%    41%
Unfavorable          31     62      2     28     37     26     38     40
Hvn't hrd enough     13     20      4     15     15     11     10     18
REFUSED               2      3      -      2      1      2      1      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            38%    54%    46%    91%    63%
Unfavorable          45     33     39      3     20
Hvn't hrd enough     16     12     14      3     15
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            42%    84%     4%    37%    48%    37%    43%    56%
Unfavorable          47     10     83     49     42     52     49     34
Hvn't hrd enough      9      5     12     10      9      8      6      9
REFUSED               2      1      1      4      1      2      2      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            54%    45%    49%     7%    39%
Unfavorable          36     46     42     75     52
Hvn't hrd enough      9      6      7     18      6
REFUSED               1      2      2      -      2
 
 
10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, gun policy, education, race relations, or the environment?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              20%    32%     7%    21%    24%    17%    22%    19%
Taxes                 5      8      1      6      6      4      5      8
Health care          14      8     21     13     10     17     13     13
Immigration          14     25      8      9     12     16     12     18
Gun policy           12      7     17     12     11     14     10     12
Education            14      7     19     16     16     11     16      8
Race relations        3      3      5      1      3      4      1      2
Environment          13      5     19     14     14     13     16     14
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      2      1      1      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 3      3      2      5      3      3      2      5
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              25%    17%    21%    12%    25%
Taxes                 7      6      6      1      1
Health care          10     15     13     19     15
Immigration          14     16     15      7     17
Gun policy            9     13     11     18     13
Education            13     12     12     22     15
Race relations        2      2      2     13      3
Environment          16     15     15      5     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                 3      4      4      4      2
 
 
12. If Andrew Gillum is elected governor, do you think race relations in Florida will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Better               25%     6%    48%    19%    20%    29%    22%    20%
Worse                27     49      8     24     31     24     31     30
The same             43     39     42     51     44     43     43     46
DK/NA                 4      5      2      5      5      3      4      5
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Better               16%    25%    21%    45%    27%
Worse                35     26     30     11     33
The same             42     46     44     41     37
DK/NA                 6      3      4      3      4
 
 
13. If Ron DeSantis is elected governor, do you think race relations in Florida will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Better               13%    27%     2%     6%    14%    11%    11%    16%
Worse                38      9     63     42     34     42     36     28
The same             45     60     30     48     48     43     50     51
DK/NA                 4      4      4      3      4      4      3      6
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Better               16%    11%    13%     3%    18%
Worse                30     35     32     69     40
The same             50     51     50     25     39
DK/NA                 5      4      4      3      3
 
 
14. Do you think that Andrew Gillum is too conservative, too liberal, or neither of those?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Too conservative      1%     1%     -      -      -      1%     1%     1%
Too liberal          39     68      9     42     46     33     48     44
Neither              54     24     85     54     49     59     48     47
DK/NA                 6      8      6      4      5      7      3      9
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Too conservative      1%     1%     1%     -      -
Too liberal          52     41     46      9     31
Neither              42     52     47     81     64
DK/NA                 6      6      6      9      4
 
 
15. Do you think that Ron DeSantis is too conservative, too liberal, or neither of those?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Too conservative     39%    14%    64%    40%    37%    40%    44%    30%
Too liberal           3      2      3      4      3      2      1      3
Neither              52     80     26     49     53     51     52     59
DK/NA                 7      5      7      8      6      7      3      8
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Too conservative     34%    40%    37%    44%    43%
Too liberal           3      2      2      6      1
Neither              57     54     55     37     51
DK/NA                 6      5      5     13      5