September 26, 2018 - Gillum Up 9 Points In Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Have Little Hope For Better Race Relations PDF format Trend Information Sample and Methodology detail Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, crosses the key 50 percent threshold and leads former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis 54 - 45 percent among likely voters in the Florida governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This compares to a too-close-to-call outcome in a September 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, showing Mayor Gillum with 50 percent and DeSantis with 47 percent. Women and independent voters are the main drivers of Gillum's lead: Women back the Democrat 59 - 39 percent, as men are divided, with 51 percent for DeSantis and 48 percent for Gillum. Independent voters back Gillum 56 - 40 percent. Republicans back DeSantis 90 - 9 percent. Gillum leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats. Black and Hispanic voters also contribute to the Democrat's lead, as black voters back Gillum 98 - 2 percent and Hispanic voters support him 59 - 41 percent. White voters back DeSantis 53 - 45 percent. Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up. Gillum gets a 55 - 31 percent favorability rating, while DeSantis gets a slightly negative 42 - 47 percent favorability rating. "Former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis appears to be outspending Mayor Andrew Gillum, his Democratic opponent, in television advertising by a sizable amount, usually a sign of a winning campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Yet, all these TV ads don't seem to be helping DeSantis' campaign." "Those TV ads, run in an effort to introduce DeSantis to Florida voters, are airing at the same time his favorability numbers are sinking and Mayor Gillum's are rising," Brown added. "When asked whether they view each of the candidates favorably or unfavorably, Gillum's rating is 24 percentage points positive, and DeSantis' score is 5 points negative. At this point, Gillum's biggest asset is just that voters like him better. "DeSantis is spending a lot for TV commercials, but they don't seem to be effective." For 20 percent of Florida likely voters, the economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, as 14 percent name immigration; 14 percent list education; 14 percent cite health care, with 13 percent for the environment and 12 percent for gun policy. Gillum is too liberal, 39 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 54 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative. DeSantis is too conservative, 39 percent of voters say, as 52 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative. Race Relations in Florida Only 25 percent of Florida voters say race relations in the state will get better if Gillum is elected, as 27 percent say race relations will get worse and 43 percent say they will stay the same. If DeSantis is elected governor, race relations will get better, 13 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say race relations will get worse and 45 percent say they will stay the same. From September 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 888 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Gillum 54% 9% 96% 56% 48% 59% 50% 40% DeSantis 45 90 2 40 51 39 48 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Gillum 40% 49% 45% 98% 59% DeSantis 59 48 53 2 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 2 2 2 - 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q10.... Health Gun Econ care Imgrtn Policy Eductn Envrnmnt Gillum 24% 76% 19% 65% 84% 83% DeSantis 73 21 80 35 16 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 3 2 1 - - 3 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Gillum DeSantis Mind made up 94% 95% 93% Might change 6 4 7 DK/NA 1 1 - 2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 55% 15% 94% 55% 47% 61% 51% 41% Unfavorable 31 62 2 28 37 26 38 40 Hvn't hrd enough 13 20 4 15 15 11 10 18 REFUSED 2 3 - 2 1 2 1 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 38% 54% 46% 91% 63% Unfavorable 45 33 39 3 20 Hvn't hrd enough 16 12 14 3 15 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 42% 84% 4% 37% 48% 37% 43% 56% Unfavorable 47 10 83 49 42 52 49 34 Hvn't hrd enough 9 5 12 10 9 8 6 9 REFUSED 2 1 1 4 1 2 2 1 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 54% 45% 49% 7% 39% Unfavorable 36 46 42 75 52 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 7 18 6 REFUSED 1 2 2 - 2 10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, gun policy, education, race relations, or the environment? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 20% 32% 7% 21% 24% 17% 22% 19% Taxes 5 8 1 6 6 4 5 8 Health care 14 8 21 13 10 17 13 13 Immigration 14 25 8 9 12 16 12 18 Gun policy 12 7 17 12 11 14 10 12 Education 14 7 19 16 16 11 16 8 Race relations 3 3 5 1 3 4 1 2 Environment 13 5 19 14 14 13 16 14 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 3 3 2 5 3 3 2 5 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Economy 25% 17% 21% 12% 25% Taxes 7 6 6 1 1 Health care 10 15 13 19 15 Immigration 14 16 15 7 17 Gun policy 9 13 11 18 13 Education 13 12 12 22 15 Race relations 2 2 2 13 3 Environment 16 15 15 5 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 3 4 4 4 2 12. If Andrew Gillum is elected governor, do you think race relations in Florida will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Better 25% 6% 48% 19% 20% 29% 22% 20% Worse 27 49 8 24 31 24 31 30 The same 43 39 42 51 44 43 43 46 DK/NA 4 5 2 5 5 3 4 5 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Better 16% 25% 21% 45% 27% Worse 35 26 30 11 33 The same 42 46 44 41 37 DK/NA 6 3 4 3 4 13. If Ron DeSantis is elected governor, do you think race relations in Florida will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Better 13% 27% 2% 6% 14% 11% 11% 16% Worse 38 9 63 42 34 42 36 28 The same 45 60 30 48 48 43 50 51 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 6 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Better 16% 11% 13% 3% 18% Worse 30 35 32 69 40 The same 50 51 50 25 39 DK/NA 5 4 4 3 3 14. Do you think that Andrew Gillum is too conservative, too liberal, or neither of those? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Too conservative 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% 1% Too liberal 39 68 9 42 46 33 48 44 Neither 54 24 85 54 49 59 48 47 DK/NA 6 8 6 4 5 7 3 9 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Too conservative 1% 1% 1% - - Too liberal 52 41 46 9 31 Neither 42 52 47 81 64 DK/NA 6 6 6 9 4 15. Do you think that Ron DeSantis is too conservative, too liberal, or neither of those? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Too conservative 39% 14% 64% 40% 37% 40% 44% 30% Too liberal 3 2 3 4 3 2 1 3 Neither 52 80 26 49 53 51 52 59 DK/NA 7 5 7 8 6 7 3 8 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Too conservative 34% 40% 37% 44% 43% Too liberal 3 2 2 6 1 Neither 57 54 55 37 51 DK/NA 6 5 5 13 5
