October 29, 2020 - Florida And Iowa Races Are Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Biden Maintains His Lead In Pennsylvania, Has Narrow Lead In Ohio Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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FLORIDA: Biden 45%, Trump 42%

IOWA: Trump 47%, Biden 46%

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%

OHIO: Biden 48%, Trump 43%

IOWA SENATE: Ernst 48%, Greenfield 46%

Less than a week before Election Day 2020, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in close races in Florida and Iowa, while Biden is slightly ahead in Ohio and maintains a lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls in those four states.

FLORIDA

In Florida, Biden gets 45 percent support among likely voters and Trump receives 42 percent, matching the margin in early September when Biden was up 3 percentage points. In between those surveys, a poll earlier this month showed Biden with 51 percent and Trump at 40 percent, in what appears to be a polling bump following the first presidential debate and the president's COVID-19 diagnosis.

Likely voters in Florida are split in their opinions of both candidates. For Biden, 46 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 44 percent have an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, 44 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

"Short on cash and locked in a tight race, the Trump campaign tries to find a foothold in Florida, a state that would likely close the door on his reelection if Biden prevails," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.

IOWA

In Iowa, Trump gets 47 percent support among likely voters and Biden gets 46 percent. That compares to an October 7th survey when Biden held a slight lead of 50 - 45 percent, in what appears to have been a polling bump for Biden following the first presidential debate and President Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis.

Likely voters in Iowa have similar opinions about both candidates. For Biden, 45 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, 46 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Forty-four percent of likely voters plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 55 percent say they have or will cast their vote by mail or absentee ballot. Earlier this month, 55 percent said they were planning on voting in person on Election Day and 42 percent already had voted or planned on voting by mail or absentee ballot.

IOWA: SENATE RACE

In the U.S. Senate race where Republican incumbent Joni Ernst is seeking re-election, Ernst receives 48 percent support and her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield receives 46 percent. On October 7th, Greenfield held 50 percent support and Ernst had 45 percent.

For Greenfield, 42 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of her and 39 percent have an unfavorable one. For Ernst, 44 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of her and 43 percent have an unfavorable one.

"In 2016, the Hawkeye State gave the president a nine-point win, and in 2014, elected Republican Joni Ernst as the first female Senator from the state by eight points. But now, less than a week until Election Day 2020, both the presidential and Senate races are too tight to call," added Malloy.

PENNSYLVANIA

In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 51 - 44 percent, largely unchanged from his 51 - 43 percent lead on October 21st.

Likely voters give Biden a positive favorability rating and Trump a negative one. For Biden, 51 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, 43 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

"As the pressure builds and both campaigns circle their wagons around Pennsylvania, Joe Biden holds onto his lead as Donald Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 win there. What's working to Biden's advantage is his ability to stay above 50 percent support, and that voters like him better than they do Trump," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

Fifty-eight percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 41 percent say they have voted or will vote by mail or absentee ballot. That is in line with what voters in Pennsylvania said on October 21st, as 60 percent said they would vote in person and 40 percent said they had voted or will vote by mail or absentee ballot.

OHIO

In Ohio, 48 percent of likely voters support Biden and 43 percent support Trump. On October 14th, Biden received 48 percent and Trump had 47 percent.

Likely voters in Ohio are split on Biden and give Trump a negative favorability rating. For Biden, 47 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, 43 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

"A race that's been virtually tied now looks to be tilting toward Joe Biden. The question is whether he can hold onto that slight lead in a state where President Trump won comfortably in 2016," added Snow.

Thirty-nine percent of likely voters in Ohio say they will vote in person on Election Day, 32 percent say they have voted or will vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 26 percent say they have or will cast their ballot at an early voting location. In mid-October, 47 percent of likely voters said they would vote in person on Election Day, 30 percent said they had voted or planned on voting by mail or absentee ballot, and 21 percent had or planned to cast their ballot at an early voting location.

From October 23rd - 27th:
  • 1,324 likely voters in Florida were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points;
  • 1,225 likely voters in Iowa were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
  • 1,186 likely voters in Ohio were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points;
  • 1,324 likely voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
Biden                45%    46%    48%    51%
Trump                42     47     43     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1
DK/NA                11      6      8      4
 
 
2_FL_OHonly. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
In person            17%     -     39%     -
Mail/Absentee ballot 38      -     32      -
Early voting loc     43      -     26      -
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      -      2      -
 
 
2_IA_PAonly. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
In person             -     44%     -     58%
Mail/Absentee ballot  -     55      -     41
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 -      1      -      -
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
Favorable            46%    45%    47%    51%
Unfavorable          44     49     46     43
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3      3      3
REFUSED               5      3      4      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
Favorable            44%    46%    43%    43%
Unfavorable          47     49     50     52
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2      3
REFUSED               5      3      5      2
 
 
5_IAonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Theresa Greenfield the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Theresa Greenfield the Democrat or Joni Ernst the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
Greenfield            -     46%     -      -
Ernst                 -     48      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 -      4      -      -
 
 
6_IAonly. Is your opinion of Theresa Greenfield favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
Favorable             -     42%     -      -
Unfavorable           -     39      -      -
Hvn't hrd enough      -     16      -      -
REFUSED               -      3      -      -
 
 
7_IAonly. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     IA     OH     PA
 
Favorable             -     44%     -      -
Unfavorable           -     43      -      -
Hvn't hrd enough      -     10      -      -
REFUSED               -      3      -      -
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail
Iowa: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail