November 2, 2020 - Florida And Ohio: Biden Has The Edge Over Trump, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Nationally, Biden Maintains A Strong Lead Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 42%

OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 43%

NATIONAL: Biden 50%, Trump 39%

On the eve of Election Day 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has narrow leads over President Donald Trump in Florida and Ohio, according to the final Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls conducted before the election.

In a national poll, Biden holds an 11-point lead over Trump among likely voters, largely unchanged from the 10-point leads he has held since September, nationally.

"Will it be a tidy game, set, match on Tuesday night? Or should we brace for an agonizing and ugly overtime, further enflaming a divided and troubled country? The Biden numbers lean toward the first scenario, but 2016 lurks in the memory of Democrats," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

FLORIDA

In Florida, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 42 percent support Trump.

Likely voters have a favorable view of Biden, 48 - 43 percent, while they have an unfavorable view of Trump, 50 - 42 percent.

"Florida, Florida, Florida. There is some confidence that the votes will be counted in time to declare a winner Tuesday night. As the hottest summer in years lingers, both sides sweat out a final tally that, if it goes Biden's way, could make the rest of the vote count all but irrelevant," added Malloy.

OHIO

In Ohio, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 43 percent support Trump.

Among likely voters, 47 percent view Biden favorably and 46 percent view him unfavorably. Forty-two percent of likely voters view Trump favorably and 51 percent view him unfavorably.

"In a state that's picked the winner of every presidential race since 1964, Ohio is a close race on the eve of Election Day 2020. Donald Trump easily won the state in 2016, but is losing some ground in the final stretch to Joe Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

NATIONAL

Biden leads Trump 50 - 39 percent in today's national poll of likely voters.

Across the country, only 27 percent of likely voters say they will cast their ballot in person on Election Day, while 37 percent say they will or already have cast their vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 35 percent say they will vote or have already voted at an early voting location.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 42 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Likely voters have a negative opinion of Trump, as 54 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion and 39 percent say they have a favorable one.

From October 28th - November 1st:
  • 1,657 likely voters in Florida were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points;
  • 1,440 likely voters in Ohio were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points;
  • 1,516 likely voters nationwide were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.







Florida

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS......................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                47%     7%    91%    50%    39%    55%    50%    35%
Trump                42     90      3     34     50     35     43     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 9      3      6     15     10      9      6      8
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Biden                51%    46%    45%    49%    31%    48%    41%    85%    47%
Trump                38     41     48     42     59     44     51      4     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1      1      2      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                 8     12      6      8      8      7      7     12      8
 
                     VOTING METHOD Q2...
                     In     Mail/  Early
                     Person Absnt  VtLoc
 
Biden                21%    61%    46%
Trump                69     26     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1
DK/NA                 9     12      7
 
 
2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS......................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
In person            16%    22%     8%    19%    19%    14%    12%    20%
Mail/Absentee ballot 36     25     47     36     32     39     45     35
Early voting loc     47     52     44     45     48     47     43     44
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      -      1      -      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
In person            22%    22%    16%     9%    20%    15%    17%    12%    15%
Mail/Absentee ballot 31     24     28     55     34     43     39     38     28
Early voting loc     48     53     56     35     45     42     43     50     57
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      1      1      -      -
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS......................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            48%     9%    92%    49%    39%    55%    51%    36%
Unfavorable          43     86      3     37     50     36     43     57
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3      3      4      6      3      2      3
REFUSED               5      2      2     10      5      6      5      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            48%    47%    47%    51%    32%    49%    42%    86%    47%
Unfavorable          38     41     47     44     60     45     52      5     39
Hvn't hrd enough      8      5      2      3      3      2      3      4      6
REFUSED               7      7      4      3      4      4      4      4      7
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS......................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            42%    89%     4%    34%    50%    36%    43%    56%
Unfavorable          50      8     92     53     43     56     52     38
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1      2      2      2      1      1      1
REFUSED               6      1      2     12      5      7      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            34%    40%    48%    45%    60%    44%    51%     6%    40%
Unfavorable          57     49     46     50     35     50     43     87     49
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      1      2      2      1      1      2      3
REFUSED               5     10      4      3      4      5      4      4      7
 


Ohio
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     OHIO LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                47%     9%    94%    43%    36%    57%    57%    39%
Trump                43     87      3     41     54     33     36     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      2      2      1      1
DK/NA                 8      3      1     12      7      8      6      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Biden                52%    44%    46%    48%    34%    55%    45%    75%
Trump                37     46     48     44     59     38     48      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      1      1      2      -      1      5
DK/NA                 7      8      5      7      6      7      6     11
 
                     VOTING METHOD Q2...
                     In     Mail/  Early
                     Person Absnt  VtLoc
 
Biden                28%    64%    52%
Trump                62     26     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
DK/NA                 7      7      9
 
 
2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
                     OHIO LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
In person            36%    47%    20%    40%    43%    31%    31%    39%
Mail/Absentee ballot 33     26     49     30     27     39     39     32
Early voting loc     30     26     31     29     30     29     30     29
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
In person            40%    48%    35%    26%    42%    31%    36%    31%
Mail/Absentee ballot 30     25     31     45     29     40     34     29
Early voting loc     29     27     34     28     29     29     29     39
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      -      -      -      -      -      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     OHIO LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            47%    11%    92%    44%    36%    56%    58%    38%
Unfavorable          46     86      6     45     57     36     38     57
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      2      7      3      4      2      3
REFUSED               3      2      -      4      3      3      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            43%    47%    47%    49%    35%    53%    44%    71%
Unfavorable          48     46     47     47     60     42     51     16
Hvn't hrd enough      6      3      3      2      3      3      3     10
REFUSED               3      4      2      2      2      3      2      4
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     OHIO LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            42%    85%     4%    36%    52%    32%    35%    53%
Unfavorable          51     12     94     53     41     60     61     42
Hvn't hrd enough      3      1      1      6      3      3      2      3
REFUSED               4      1      2      4      4      4      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            32%    43%    48%    47%    58%    38%    47%     9%
Unfavorable          60     50     48     49     38     57     48     82
Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      2      2      2      3      2      4
REFUSED               3      5      3      2      2      2      2      5
 


National
1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                50%     8%    94%    49%    43%    57%    61%    39%
Trump                39     88      4     37     48     32     33     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      2      1      1      1
DK/NA                 9      4      1     10      7      9      6      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Biden                55%    47%    51%    54%    41%    52%    47%    81%    50%
Trump                32     46     42     39     52     42     47      6     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      1      1      1      2      -      1      1      6
DK/NA                 9      6      6      5      6      6      6     12      8
 
                     VOTING METHOD Q2...
                     In     Mail/  Early
                     Person Absnt  VtLoc
 
Biden                32%    66%    49%
Trump                59     26     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      3
DK/NA                 8      6     10
 
 
2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
                     NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
In person            27%    35%    18%    25%    31%    23%    26%    31%
Mail/Absentee ballot 37     31     50     33     34     40     44     38
Early voting loc     35     33     31     42     34     35     30     29
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
In person            28%    36%    24%    20%    33%    26%    30%    19%    23%
Mail/Absentee ballot 42     25     36     46     35     45     40     27     34
Early voting loc     29     38     38     32     32     28     30     53     44
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            49%    10%    92%    46%    41%    56%    61%    39%
Unfavorable          42     87      5     44     51     35     34     55
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      2      5      3      4      2      2
REFUSED               5      2      1      4      5      5      3      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            47%    45%    53%    56%    39%    52%    46%    76%    50%
Unfavorable          41     48     43     41     55     42     48     12     41
Hvn't hrd enough      7      5      1      2      2      2      2     10      4
REFUSED               5      3      3      2      4      4      4      2      6
 
 
3a. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable q3) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
                     NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Strongly favorable   30%     4%    62%    24%    22%    37%    38%    24%
Smwht favorable      19      6     29     21     19     18     22     14
Smwht unfavorable     7      9      1     13      9      5      8      8
Strongly unfavorable 35     77      4     32     41     29     26     46
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      2      5      3      4      2      2
REFUSED               6      3      2      5      5      6      3      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Strongly favorable   11%    26%    37%    46%    20%    37%    29%    44%    32%
Smwht favorable      36     17     16     10     19     15     17     32     18
Smwht unfavorable    17      7      5      2     10      6      8      4      8
Strongly unfavorable 25     41     38     37     44     35     39      7     33
Hvn't hrd enough      7      5      1      2      2      2      2     10      4
REFUSED               5      3      3      5      4      5      5      3      6
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            39%    87%     4%    36%    46%    32%    32%    53%
Unfavorable          54     12     93     55     46     61     64     43
Hvn't hrd enough      3      -      1      4      4      1      2      1
REFUSED               5      1      2      5      4      5      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            31%    44%    41%    40%    50%    41%    45%     8%    34%
Unfavorable          61     49     54     57     44     56     50     87     53
Hvn't hrd enough      2      4      2      2      2      -      1      4      5
REFUSED               6      2      3      1      4      2      3      2      8
 
 
4a. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable q4) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
                     NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Strongly favorable   30%    74%     2%    24%    35%    25%    23%    44%
Smwht favorable       9     13      2     11     11      7      9      8
Smwht unfavorable     5      4      2      8      4      5      3      3
Strongly unfavorable 48      7     90     46     41     55     61     40
Hvn't hrd enough      3      -      1      4      4      1      2      1
REFUSED               6      1      3      6      5      6      3      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Strongly favorable   18%    31%    34%    37%    40%    34%    37%     5%    25%
Smwht favorable      13     12      7      3      9      7      8      3      9
Smwht unfavorable     8      5      3      3      4      2      3     11      8
Strongly unfavorable 52     44     50     51     40     53     47     74     44
Hvn't hrd enough      2      4      2      2      2      -      1      4      5
REFUSED               6      3      4      4      4      3      4      4     10
 
 
Additional info by area:
Florida: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail
National: National Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail