October 7, 2020 - Biden Widens Lead Over Trump In Florida & Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Slight Leads For Democrats In Iowa Presidential & Senate Races Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%

IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%

IOWA SENATE: Greenfield 50%, Ernst 45%

In the wake of last week's presidential debate and President Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, former Vice President Joe Biden is widening his lead over President Trump among likely voters in both Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll in both of these states released today.

In the first Quinnipiac University Poll of Iowa likely voters, Biden has a slight lead over Trump in the race for president.

This poll was conducted between October 1st and 5th in all three states.

"In varying degrees, three critical states in three very different parts of the country come to the same ominous conclusion. The president's hopes for re-election are growing dimmer by the day," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

In Florida, likely voters support Biden over Trump 51 - 40 percent. That compares to a September 3rd Florida poll showing Biden with 48 percent support and Trump with 45 percent support. Among party affiliation, the biggest change is among independents, who now support Biden by a twenty-point margin compared to a ten- point margin a month ago.

In Pennsylvania, likely voters support Biden over Trump 54 - 41 percent. That compares to a September 3rd poll when Biden received 52 percent support to Trump's 44 percent.

In Iowa, likely voters support Biden over Trump 50 - 45 percent. Democrats back Biden 98 - 2 percent, independents are divided with 48 percent supporting Biden and 43 percent for Trump, while Republicans back Trump 91 - 6 percent.

THE DEBATE

Likely voters in all three states were asked whether the first presidential debate made them think more favorably of the candidates, less favorably, or whether it didn't have an impact. Results were similar in all of the states.

More than forty percent in each of the states (FL: 44 percent, PA: 46 percent, IA: 45 percent) say the debate made them think less favorably of Trump. A similar number (FL: 43 percent, PA: 44 percent, IA: 43 percent) say it had no impact, and less than ten percent (FL: 9 percent, PA: 7 percent, IA: 9 percent) say it made them think more favorably of him.

A plurality of voters across the states (FL: 48 percent, PA: 50 percent, IA: 49 percent) say the debate had no impact on their view of Biden. A little more than a quarter of likely voters (FL: 29 percent, PA: 27 percent, IA: 26 percent) say the debate made them think more favorably of him, and roughly twenty percent (FL: 19 percent, PA: 19 percent, IA: 22 percent) say it made them think of Biden less favorably.

"Who came out less battered and bruised after the debate debacle? The numbers suggest if it wasn't a knockout, it was certainly a TKO for Biden," added Malloy.

TRUMP HANDLING CORONAVIRUS & JOB

In Florida, likely voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the coronavirus response, 56 - 40 percent. In September, likely voters only slightly disapproved, with 51 percent disapproving and 46 percent approving.

In Pennsylvania, likely voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the coronavirus response, 58 - 40 percent. In September, they disapproved 55 - 43 percent.

In Iowa, likely voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the coronavirus response, 51 - 45 percent.

When it comes to handling his overall job as president, Florida likely voters disapprove 52 - 42 percent. In September, likely voters were divided on the way he was handling his job, with 50 percent disapproving and 46 percent approving.

Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 - 41 percent of the way he is handling his job. In September, they disapproved 54 - 43 percent.

His job approval rating in Iowa is also below water, with 52 percent disapproving and 46 percent approving.

FLORIDA: PERSONAL TRAITS

In Florida, Biden receives a positive favorability rating, as 48 percent have a favorable opinion and 41 percent have an unfavorable opinion. President Trump has a negative favorability rating, as 38 percent have a favorable opinion and 54 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Likely voters give Biden better scores than Trump on four personal traits, as they say:
  • 70 - 25 percent that Biden has a sense of decency, and 56 - 40 percent that Trump does not;
  • 59 - 35 percent that Biden cares about average Americans, and 54 - 43 percent that Trump does not;
  • 50 - 40 percent that Biden is honest, and 58 - 37 percent that Trump is not honest;
  • 49 - 44 percent that Trump is racist, and 67 - 21 percent that Biden is not racist.
FLORIDA: BIDEN VS. TRUMP ON THE ISSUES

Biden leads Trump on who would do a better job handling three out of four issues in Florida, as likely voters say:
  • 57 - 38 percent that Biden would do a better job handling health care;
  • 55 - 39 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus;
  • 51 - 42 percent that Biden would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations;
  • 50 - 44 percent that Trump would do a better job handling the economy.
PENNSYLVANIA: PERSONAL TRAITS

Pennsylvania likely voters give Biden a positive favorability rating as 51 percent have a favorable opinion and 42 percent view him unfavorably. Trump receives a negative favorability rating, as 41 percent have a favorable opinion and 55 percent view him unfavorably.

Biden also gets better scores than Trump on four personal traits, as likely voters say:
  • 72 - 23 percent that Biden has a sense of decency, and 60 - 36 percent that Trump does not;
  • 63 - 32 percent that Biden cares about average Americans, and 55 - 42 percent that Trump does not;
  • 54 - 38 percent that Biden is honest, and 61 - 35 percent that Trump is not honest;
  • 50 - 45 percent that Trump is racist, and 69 - 23 percent that Biden is not racist.
PENNSYLVANIA: BIDEN VS. TRUMP ON THE ISSUES

Biden leads Trump on who would do a better job handling three of four issues and is competitive on one, with likely voters saying:
  • 57 - 38 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus;
  • 56 - 39 percent that Biden would do a better job handling health care;
  • 53 - 42 percent that Biden would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations;
  • A divided 50 - 46 percent that Trump would do a better job handling the economy.
"President Trump comes under further pressure in Pennsylvania where voters give him low marks on decency, empathy and honesty. On issues, the pandemic is overshadowing all others right now and voters express more confidence in former Vice President Joe Biden to handle the coronavirus response," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

IOWA: PERSONAL TRAITS

In Iowa, Biden receives a mixed favorability rating, as 46 percent have a favorable opinion and 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion. President Trump has a negative favorability rating, as 44 percent have a favorable opinion and 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Iowa likely voters give Biden better scores than Trump on four personal traits, as they say:
  • 67 - 28 percent that Biden has a sense of decency, and 57 - 39 percent that Trump does not;
  • 56 - 38 percent that Biden cares about average Americans, and a divided 51 - 47 percent that Trump does not;
  • 48 - 43 percent that Biden is honest, and 58 - 39 percent that Trump is not honest;
  • A split 48 - 45 percent that Trump is racist, and 64 - 25 percent that Biden is not racist.
IOWA: BIDEN VS. TRUMP ON THE ISSUES

Biden beats Trump on who would do a better job handling two of four issues in Iowa, with Trump leading on one and the candidates are essentially tied on one, as likely voters say:
  • 51 - 44 percent that Trump would do a better job handling the economy;
  • A split 48 - 46 percent that Biden would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations;
  • 52 - 43 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus;
  • 51 - 43 percent that Biden would do a better job handling health care.
IOWA: SENATE RACE

In the Iowa Senate race in which Republican Senator Joni Ernst is seeking a second term, the Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield holds a slight lead over her incumbent opponent, 50 - 45 percent. Four percent remain undecided. Democrats back Greenfield 95 - 3 percent, independents support Greenfield 50 percent and Ernst 43 percent, and Republicans back Ernst 91 - 5 percent.

Likely voters have a favorable view of Greenfield, 41 - 32 percent, with 25 percent saying they haven't heard enough. They have a slightly negative view of Ernst, with 40 percent saying favorable, 45 percent saying unfavorable, and 14 percent saying they haven't heard enough.

"Joni Ernst, Iowa's first female U.S. Senator, tries to avoid being Iowa's first female U.S. Senator to serve just one term. And the importance of the contest radiates far beyond the heartland to D.C., where control of the Senate looms," said Malloy.

SUPREME COURT, ACA, & ABORTION

In Iowa, 50 percent of likely voters say that the winner of the presidential election should fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court in the wake of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, while 44 percent say President Trump should fill it before the election. They are more closely split on whether the U.S. Senate should confirm Amy Coney Barrett, President Trump's Supreme Court nominee, to the Supreme Court, as 44 percent of likely voters say she should be confirmed and 43 percent say she should not.

In Florida, likely voters say 54 - 41 percent that the election winner should fill the vacancy, and are divided on whether Coney Barrett should be confirmed, with 46 percent saying she should not be confirmed and 42 percent saying she should.

In Pennsylvania, likely voters say 54 - 44 percent that the election winner should fill the vacancy, and are divided on whether Coney Barrett should be confirmed, with 45 percent saying she should not be confirmed and 42 percent saying she should.

As the Supreme Court considers a case on the fate of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, a majority of likely voters in all three states want to see it remain in place.

Likely voters in Florida say 56 - 36 percent that the Affordable Care Act should remain in place. Likely voters in Iowa say 53 - 40 percent that the Affordable Care Act should remain in place. Likely voters in Pennsylvania say 57 - 36 percent that the Affordable Care Act should remain in place.

More than six in ten voters in Florida, Iowa, and Pennsylvania agree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion.

In Florida, likely voters agree 68 - 23 percent with the Roe v. Wade decision. In Iowa, likely voters agree 61 - 30 percent with the Roe v. Wade decision. In Pennsylvania, likely voters agree 64 - 28 percent with the Roe v. Wade decision.

From October 1st - 5th:
  • 1,256 likely voters in Florida were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
  • 1,205 likely voters in Iowa were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
  • 1,211 likely voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Biden                51%    50%    54%
Trump                40     45     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1
DK/NA                 7      3      3
 
 
2_FLonly. Thinking about the 2020 two thousand twenty election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
In person            40%     -      -
Mail/Absentee ballot 35      -      -
Early voting loc     23      -      -
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      -      -
 
 
2_IA_PAonly. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
In person             -     55%    62%
Mail/Absentee ballot  -     42     36
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -
DK/NA                 -      3      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Favorable            48%    46%    51%
Unfavorable          41     47     42
Hvn't hrd enough      6      5      4
REFUSED               5      2      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Favorable            38%    44%    41%
Unfavorable          54     52     55
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2
REFUSED               4      2      3
 
 
5_IAonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Theresa Greenfield the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Theresa Greenfield the Democrat or Joni Ernst the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Greenfield            -     50%     -
Ernst                 -     45      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -
DK/NA                 -      4      -
 
 
6_IAonly. Is your opinion of Theresa Greenfield favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Favorable             -     41%     -
Unfavorable           -     32      -
Hvn't hrd enough      -     25      -
REFUSED               -      2      -
 
 
7_IAonly. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Favorable             -     40%     -
Unfavorable           -     45      -
Hvn't hrd enough      -     14      -
REFUSED               -      2      -
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Approve              42%    46%    41%
Disapprove           52     52     56
DK/NA                 5      2      3
 
 
9. Would you say that - Joe Biden is honest, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  50%    48%    54%
No                   40     43     38
DK/NA                10      9      9
 
 
10. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  37%    39%    35%
No                   58     58     61
DK/NA                 5      4      4
 
 
11. Would you say that - Joe Biden cares about average Americans, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  59%    56%    63%
No                   35     38     32
DK/NA                 6      6      5
 
 
12. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about average Americans, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  43%    47%    42%
No                   54     51     55
DK/NA                 3      2      2
 
 
13. Would you say that - Joe Biden has a sense of decency, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  70%    67%    72%
No                   25     28     23
DK/NA                 5      5      5
 
 
14. Would you say that - Donald Trump has a sense of decency, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  40%    39%    36%
No                   56     57     60
DK/NA                 4      4      4
 
 
15. Would you say that - Joe Biden is racist, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  21%    25%    23%
No                   67     64     69
DK/NA                12     11      8
 
 
 
16. Would you say that - Donald Trump is racist, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes                  49%    48%    50%
No                   44     45     45
DK/NA                 7      7      5
 
 
17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Trump                50%    51%    50%
Biden                44     44     46
DK/NA                 5      5      4
 
 
18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling health care: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Trump                38%    43%    39%
Biden                57     51     56
DK/NA                 5      5      5
 
 
19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the response to the coronavirus: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Trump                39%    43%    38%
Biden                55     52     57
DK/NA                 6      6      5
 
 
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Supreme Court nominations: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Trump                42%    46%    42%
Biden                51     48     53
DK/NA                 7      6      5
 
 
21. Which comes closer to your point of view regarding the Supreme Court vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by the winner of the presidential election, or the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by President Trump before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Election winner      54%    50%    54%
President Trump      41     44     44
DK/NA                 5      6      3
 
 
22. As you may know, President Trump has nominated Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes/Should confirm   42%    44%    42%
No                   46     43     45
DK/NA                11     13     13
 
 
23. In general, would you like to see the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, remain in place, or would you like to see Obamacare ended?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Remain in place      56%    53%    57%
Ended                36     40     36
DK/NA                 8      7      6
 
 
24. In general, do you agree or disagree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Agree                68%    61%    64%
Disagree             23     30     28
DK/NA                 9      9      8
 
 
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Approve              40%    45%    40%
Disapprove           56     51     58
DK/NA                 3      3      2
 
 
26_PAonly. Thinking about the upcoming election, have you heard or read about the issue of naked ballots in Pennsylvania, or haven't you?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
Yes/Heard or read     -      -     56%
No                    -      -     40
DK/NA                 -      -      4
 
 
27. Did the first presidential debate make you think more favorably of - Joe Biden, less favorably, or didn't it have an impact on your view of Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
More favorably       29%    26%    27%
Less favorably       19     22     19
No impact            48     49     50
DK/NA                 4      4      3
 
 
28. Did the first presidential debate make you think more favorably of - Donald Trump, less favorably, or didn't it have an impact on your view of Donald Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     IA     PA
 
More favorably        9%     9%     7%
Less favorably       44     45     46
No impact            43     43     44
DK/NA                 4      3      2
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail
Iowa: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Trend Tables Sample and Methodology detail