October 24, 2019 - Warren Opens Up Lead In Dem Primary As Biden Slips, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Dems Say Sanders Is Most Honest Candidate PDF format Trend Information Sample and Methodology detail Senator Elizabeth Warren has opened up a lead in the Democratic primary race after being locked in a tight race with former Vice President Joe Biden for several weeks, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea- ack) University national poll released today. Warren receives 28 percent of the vote among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden gets 21 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders gets 15 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 10 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 5 percent and Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 3 percent. No other candidate tops one percent. In an October 14 poll, prior to the fourth debate, Warren and Biden were locked in a close race in which Warren received 30 percent, Biden got 27 percent, Sanders had 11 percent, Buttigieg got 8 percent, Harris received 4 percent and Klobuchar had 2 percent of the vote. "Former Vice President Joe Biden slips, Senator Elizabeth Warren steadies, Senator Bernie Sanders gets his groove back, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg breaks back into double digits," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow. Biden is still viewed as the candidate who has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, but he is not as strong on this question as he once was. In today's poll, Biden gets 42 percent, but this is down from 48 percent in the October 14 poll and his high of 56 percent in an April 30 poll. Warren comes in second on this electability question with 20 percent, followed by Sanders at 14 percent. Sanders is viewed as the most honest Democratic candidate for president by 28 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, followed by Biden and Warren who receive 15 percent apiece, and Buttigieg with 11 percent. Sanders and Warren are at the top on the question of which candidate "cares most about people like you," as Sanders gets 28 percent, Warren receives 24 percent, and Biden gets 14 percent. Warren continues to win on the question of which candidate has the best policy ideas, but Bernie Sanders has narrowed the gap. In today's poll, 30 percent say Warren has the best policy ideas, followed by Sanders at 20 percent and Biden at 15 percent. In the October 14 poll, Warren had 40 percent, Biden had 16 percent, and Sanders was at 12 percent. Biden and Warren continue to be close on the question of who would be the best leader, with Biden at 28 percent, Warren at 24 percent, and Sanders getting 13 percent. In the October 14 poll, 32 percent of voters said Biden would be the best leader, 28 percent said Warren, and 9 percent said Sanders would be the best leader. "Senator Bernie Sanders regained his footing after returning to the campaign trail following a heart attack. He outshines all Democrats as being seen as the most honest candidate," Snow added. Democrats and Democratic leaners paid attention to last week's debate, as 29 percent say that they watched or listened to all or most of the debate and another 43 percent say that they paid close attention to news stories about it. Among the 72 percent who either watched the debate or paid close attention to news stories about it, 26 percent say Warren did the best job, followed by Buttigieg with 17 percent, Biden with 12 percent, Sanders at 11 percent, and Klobuchar at 8 percent. When asked who did the worst job in the recent debate, 15 percent say Biden and 11 percent say Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. "Despite coming under attack at the debate, Senator Elizabeth Warren was viewed as doing the best job, followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeig, which may have helped his standing in the primary. "Last week's debate didn't help Vice President Joe Biden, who saw his numbers slip to where they were in early July following the first Democratic debate. Then, like now, he ranked among candidates doing the worst job in the debate. Later in July, his numbers rebounded. The question remains whether this is a blip or a trend," Snow added. From October 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,587 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 713 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, including the design effect. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Email poll@quinnipiac.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No A lot 51% 54% 59% 44% 51% 51% 59% 50% Some 27 27 27 27 27 28 26 28 Only a little 14 12 10 19 14 14 11 14 None at all 7 7 3 9 8 6 4 8 DK/NA - - - - - - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp A lot 30% 45% 59% 67% 53% 55% 54% 50% 39% Some 36 31 26 21 26 28 27 29 27 Only a little 23 17 9 8 14 11 12 13 26 None at all 12 6 6 4 6 6 6 8 8 DK/NA - - - - - - - - - DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No A lot 56% 56% 52% 59% 59% 54% 61% 54% 65% 55% Some 27 34 29 24 26 28 25 30 25 24 Only a little 13 8 14 12 10 15 10 15 8 12 None at all 4 2 4 5 6 3 4 1 1 9 DK/NA - - - - - - - - - - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ A lot 59% 46% 28% 53% 66% 74% 48% 57% 65% Some 27 26 43 27 25 18 30 27 24 Only a little 10 22 19 17 6 7 15 15 7 None at all 3 6 10 2 4 2 7 1 3 DK/NA - - - - - - - - - TREND: How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? OnlyA None A lot Some Little AtAll DK/NA Oct 24, 2019 51 27 14 7 - Oct 14, 2019 54 25 11 9 - Oct 08, 2019 53 24 15 8 - Sep 25, 2019 48 25 17 8 1 Aug 28, 2019 47 30 16 6 1 Jul 29, 2019 48 28 15 9 1 Jun 11, 2019 42 30 18 10 - May 21, 2019 44 30 17 8 - Apr 30, 2019 49 28 13 8 1 2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 21% 7% 12% 28% 25% 20% 18% 43% 15% 23% Sanders 15 24 16 11 19 12 13 12 8 20 O'Rourke 1 1 3 1 1 2 - - - - Harris 5 4 4 7 4 6 4 2 5 4 Warren 28 48 31 20 22 31 33 20 37 26 Booker 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 - 2 - Klobuchar 3 1 - 5 3 3 4 - 4 4 Castro 1 2 - - - 1 - 1 - 1 Gabbard 1 - - 1 1 - 1 1 1 - Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 10 6 11 12 11 10 13 4 14 11 Yang 1 - 4 1 2 1 2 - 2 1 Williamson - - - - - - - 2 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 - 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 - - 1 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 9 7 11 8 9 9 7 12 7 7 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 24% 15% 6% 21% 19% 35% 22% 17% 20% Sanders 13 20 31 15 15 3 20 15 9 O'Rourke 1 3 2 - 2 2 1 2 - Harris 4 10 6 9 3 4 3 8 6 Warren 30 20 30 29 29 23 25 30 33 Booker 1 1 - 1 1 2 - 2 1 Klobuchar 3 3 - 5 4 2 2 4 4 Castro 1 - - 1 1 - - 1 1 Gabbard - 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - Delaney - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 11 9 12 5 12 13 7 9 17 Yang 1 2 4 1 1 - 1 2 1 Williamson - - - 1 - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - 1 - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 1 - 1 3 1 3 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 2 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 8 12 8 9 7 10 12 8 6 DEBATE Q8............ ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1 Paid Little/ Watch Attn No Attn A lot Some None Biden 24% 22% 18% 22% 22% 19% Sanders 12 16 17 9 20 23 O'Rourke 2 2 1 1 - 4 Harris 6 4 7 5 6 5 Warren 30 31 21 33 27 13 Booker - 2 1 1 1 - Klobuchar 4 3 2 4 1 2 Castro 1 - - - 1 - Gabbard - - 1 - - 1 Delaney - - - - - - Buttigieg 12 10 7 13 6 8 Yang 1 1 2 1 1 5 Williamson 1 - - - - - Messam - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - Steyer 1 1 2 1 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 6 7 16 7 9 16 TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote? (Trend information is available upon request back through Mar 2019) DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................... Oct 24 Oct 14 Oct 08 Sep 25 Aug 28 Aug 06 Jul 29 Jul 02 Jun 11 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Biden 21 27 26 25 32 32 34 22 30 Sanders 15 11 16 16 15 14 11 13 19 O'Rourke 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 Harris 5 4 3 3 7 7 12 20 7 Warren 28 30 29 27 19 21 15 14 15 Booker 1 2 2 - 1 2 1 3 1 Klobuchar 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 Castro 1 1 1 2 - 1 - 1 - Gabbard 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 - Delaney - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 10 8 4 7 5 5 6 4 8 Yang 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 1 1 Williamson - - - - 1 - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - 1 - - - - - 1 Bennet - 1 1 1 1 - - - - Bullock - - - - 1 - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - na Steyer 1 2 - - - - - na na de Blasio na na na na 1 - - - - Gillibrand na na na na - - - - - Gravel na na na na na - - - - Hickenlooper na na na na na - - - - Inslee na na na na na - - - - Moulton na na na na na - - - - Swalwell na na na na na na na - - SMONE ELSE 1 - 1 - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 DK/NA 9 8 8 13 9 10 12 12 13 3. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - would be the best leader? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 28% 11% 22% 36% 30% 28% 24% 51% 20% 29% Sanders 13 26 13 9 18 11 11 11 8 16 O'Rourke 1 1 - 1 1 - - - 1 - Harris 4 1 4 6 3 5 4 5 6 1 Warren 24 44 27 17 22 26 29 13 35 21 Booker 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 - 2 1 Klobuchar 3 2 1 5 3 4 5 - 4 7 Castro - 1 - 1 1 - - 2 - - Gabbard - - 1 1 - - 1 - 1 - Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 8 4 7 9 7 8 11 4 13 8 Yang 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 Williamson - - - - - - - 2 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - 1 1 - - 1 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - - 2 DK/NA 13 8 19 13 12 14 11 12 8 15 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 29% 26% 18% 24% 25% 42% 30% 26% 25% Sanders 12 18 25 13 15 4 18 15 8 O'Rourke - 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 Harris 5 3 2 12 4 1 4 6 5 Warren 27 17 25 27 29 17 16 30 33 Booker 2 1 - 2 1 2 1 2 1 Klobuchar 3 4 - 4 4 5 2 5 4 Castro - 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 Gabbard - 1 1 1 - - - 1 - Delaney - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 8 6 6 3 8 13 5 6 14 Yang - 2 2 - 1 - - 1 1 Williamson - - - 1 - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - 1 Bullock - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - Steyer - 1 - - 1 1 1 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 2 - 1 - - DK/NA 11 19 20 12 8 13 21 9 7 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Biden 31% 31% 22% Sanders 13 14 13 O'Rourke 1 - 1 Harris 2 4 7 Warren 28 26 17 Booker 1 2 1 Klobuchar 5 3 1 Castro 1 - - Gabbard - - 2 Delaney - - - Buttigieg 10 8 4 Yang - 1 1 Williamson 1 - - Messam - - - Ryan - - - Bennet - - - Bullock - - - Sestak - - - Steyer 1 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 2 DK/NA 6 8 29 TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think would be the best leader? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.................. Oct 24 Oct 14 Aug 06 Jul 29 Jul 02 Apr 30 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Biden 28 32 33 36 26 44 Sanders 13 9 13 12 15 11 O'Rourke 1 1 1 1 1 3 Harris 4 4 7 9 16 6 Warren 24 28 22 17 15 11 Booker 1 1 2 1 3 2 Klobuchar 3 2 1 1 1 1 Castro - 1 1 - 1 1 Gabbard - - 1 - 1 - Delaney - - - - - - Buttigieg 8 7 5 5 4 7 Yang 1 1 1 1 - - Williamson - - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - na Bullock - - - - - na Sestak - - - - - na Steyer - 1 - - na na de Blasio na na - - - na Gillibrand na na - - - 1 Gravel na na - - - na Hickenlooper na na - - - - Inslee na na - - - - Moulton na na - - - - Swalwell na na na na - - SMONE ELSE 1 1 - - - - DK/NA 13 11 12 15 15 12 4. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best policy ideas? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 15% 4% 13% 19% 17% 14% 13% 26% 12% 15% Sanders 20 36 20 13 22 18 16 13 13 21 O'Rourke 1 2 3 - 1 1 - - - - Harris 4 2 5 4 2 5 3 5 3 2 Warren 30 41 28 28 29 30 32 31 36 27 Booker 1 - 2 - 1 1 1 - 2 - Klobuchar 3 1 1 6 2 4 5 - 5 5 Castro - 1 - - - - - - - 1 Gabbard - - - - - - - 1 1 - Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 9 8 9 10 10 9 13 1 14 13 Yang 2 1 5 1 3 2 3 - 4 1 Williamson - - - - - - - 2 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - 1 - - - 1 - - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 - - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 13 5 11 16 12 14 12 22 10 14 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 15% 15% 4% 18% 12% 26% 13% 12% 16% Sanders 18 24 41 19 16 6 26 23 11 O'Rourke 1 2 3 1 1 - 1 2 1 Harris 2 8 6 6 1 2 6 2 4 Warren 34 18 26 28 35 31 27 29 36 Booker - 2 - 1 1 - - 1 2 Klobuchar 3 4 - 4 5 4 1 4 5 Castro - - - 1 1 - - 1 - Gabbard - 1 1 - - - - 1 - Delaney - - - 1 - - 1 - - Buttigieg 10 6 5 6 12 15 7 10 13 Yang 2 3 5 2 2 - 1 3 3 Williamson - - - 1 - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - - - 1 - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - - 2 1 1 - - DK/NA 13 16 9 11 13 14 15 12 8 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Biden 16% 14% 16% Sanders 15 19 26 O'Rourke - 2 1 Harris 2 4 5 Warren 37 36 12 Booker - 1 1 Klobuchar 4 3 2 Castro - - - Gabbard - - 1 Delaney - - - Buttigieg 14 8 6 Yang 2 2 2 Williamson 1 - - Messam - - - Ryan - - - Bennet - - - Bullock - - - Sestak - - - Steyer - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 DK/NA 7 8 28 TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think has the best policy ideas? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.................. Oct 24 Oct 14 Aug 06 Jul 29 Jul 02 Apr 30 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Biden 15 16 17 21 11 23 Sanders 20 12 16 16 18 16 O'Rourke 1 2 1 1 - 2 Harris 4 1 5 6 8 7 Warren 30 40 32 26 31 19 Booker 1 1 1 1 2 1 Klobuchar 3 2 1 1 1 1 Castro - - - 1 1 - Gabbard - - 1 1 1 - Delaney - - - - - - Buttigieg 9 6 5 5 3 9 Yang 2 2 1 2 - 1 Williamson - - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - na Bullock - - - - - na Sestak - - - - - na Steyer - 1 - - na na de Blasio na na - - - na Gillibrand na na - - - 1 Gravel na na - - - na Hickenlooper na na - - - - Inslee na na 1 - - 1 Moulton na na - - - - Swalwell na na na na - - SMONE ELSE 1 - - - - - DK/NA 13 16 17 20 22 19 5. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 42% 20% 43% 49% 46% 39% 40% 58% 42% 38% Sanders 14 25 15 10 17 13 14 7 9 22 O'Rourke - - - - - - - - - - Harris 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 5 3 2 Warren 20 36 19 16 17 22 25 9 27 22 Booker 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 - Klobuchar 1 1 - 2 1 1 2 - 1 3 Castro - - - - - - - - - - Gabbard - - - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 2 1 4 2 2 2 2 - 3 1 Yang - - 1 - - - - - - - Williamson - - - - - - - 2 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 - 2 - 1 - - 2 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 15 10 13 16 12 17 12 17 12 13 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 43% 38% 24% 42% 46% 55% 39% 41% 44% Sanders 12 20 38 14 8 2 20 12 11 O'Rourke - - - - - - - - - Harris 3 2 5 2 3 2 1 5 4 Warren 23 14 18 24 23 17 16 25 23 Booker - 3 2 - 2 - 1 - 2 Klobuchar 1 2 - - 2 3 2 1 1 Castro - - - - - - - - - Gabbard - - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 1 3 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 Yang - - - 1 - - - - - Williamson - - - 1 - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 - - - 2 - 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 14 17 9 15 12 19 16 13 9 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Biden 39% 47% 36% Sanders 12 12 20 O'Rourke - - - Harris 3 4 1 Warren 25 21 14 Booker 1 - 3 Klobuchar 4 - - Castro - - - Gabbard - - - Delaney - - - Buttigieg 2 1 2 Yang 1 - - Williamson 1 - - Messam - - - Ryan - - - Bennet - - - Bullock - - - Sestak - - - Steyer - - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 11 13 21 TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.................. Oct 24 Oct 14 Aug 06 Jul 29 Jul 02 Apr 30 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Biden 42 48 49 51 42 56 Sanders 14 7 12 10 13 12 O'Rourke - 1 2 - - 3 Harris 3 1 6 8 14 2 Warren 20 21 9 8 9 3 Booker 1 1 1 1 1 3 Klobuchar 1 - - - - - Castro - - - - - - Gabbard - - - - 1 - Delaney - - - 1 - - Buttigieg 2 2 1 1 1 4 Yang - - 1 - - - Williamson - - - - - - Messam - - - - - - Ryan - - 1 - - - Bennet - - - - - na Bullock - - - - - na Sestak - - - - - na Steyer 1 1 - - na na de Blasio na na - - - na Gillibrand na na - - - 1 Gravel na na - - - na Hickenlooper na na - - - - Inslee na na - - - - Moulton na na - - - - Swalwell na na na na - - SMONE ELSE 1 - 1 - - 1 DK/NA 15 16 17 20 17 15 6. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - cares the most about people like you? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 14% 4% 11% 19% 16% 13% 14% 24% 11% 19% Sanders 28 45 27 22 33 25 26 20 21 33 O'Rourke 1 1 2 1 3 1 - 1 - - Harris 5 1 5 8 4 6 4 9 4 4 Warren 24 31 25 22 17 28 28 16 32 22 Booker 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 4 1 - Klobuchar 3 - 2 4 2 3 4 - 4 3 Castro 1 4 - - 1 1 - 1 - - Gabbard - - - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 7 7 10 7 9 6 10 - 13 5 Yang 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 Williamson - - - - - - - 2 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 - 3 - 1 1 1 3 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - 1 DK/NA 12 6 11 13 11 13 11 19 11 10 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 16% 9% 4% 11% 12% 31% 15% 13% 12% Sanders 26 34 54 29 23 11 35 32 19 O'Rourke 1 3 4 - 1 2 1 3 - Harris 5 7 6 10 5 2 6 7 5 Warren 26 19 13 26 32 24 20 22 34 Booker 1 - - 2 - 2 1 1 2 Klobuchar 2 4 - 2 5 4 1 3 4 Castro 1 2 2 1 1 - 1 - 2 Gabbard - - - - - - - - - Delaney - - - 1 - - 1 - - Buttigieg 7 8 8 5 10 7 8 6 9 Yang 1 2 1 1 2 - - 1 1 Williamson - - - 1 - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 - - - 2 1 1 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 12 13 8 12 8 15 11 10 11 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Biden 17% 14% 13% Sanders 19 29 35 O'Rourke 2 2 1 Harris 4 5 8 Warren 31 27 11 Booker 1 2 - Klobuchar 4 2 1 Castro 2 1 - Gabbard - - - Delaney - - - Buttigieg 8 7 7 Yang 1 1 2 Williamson 1 - - Messam - - - Ryan - - - Bennet - - - Bullock - - - Sestak - - - Steyer 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 9 9 20 7. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think - is the most honest? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 15% 5% 9% 19% 16% 15% 13% 30% 10% 17% Sanders 28 52 29 18 34 24 25 22 25 25 O'Rourke 2 1 4 2 2 2 1 - - 3 Harris 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 1 1 Warren 15 23 13 13 11 17 19 11 22 14 Booker 2 - 5 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 Klobuchar 4 2 3 5 3 5 6 2 6 6 Castro 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 - Gabbard 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 11 7 14 11 9 12 14 2 15 13 Yang 2 - 3 3 2 2 3 - 5 1 Williamson - - - 1 - 1 - 2 1 - Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - - - DK/NA 17 7 17 20 16 17 14 20 10 19 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 16% 13% 10% 13% 8% 27% 15% 11% 14% Sanders 26 32 51 26 28 11 30 29 26 O'Rourke 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 2 3 Harris 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 4 2 Warren 16 13 8 20 18 15 12 18 19 Booker 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 Klobuchar 4 4 - 5 5 5 2 5 6 Castro 1 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 - Gabbard - 1 - 2 1 - 1 - 1 Delaney - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 12 8 5 8 15 14 8 11 15 Yang 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 Williamson 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - Bennet - - - - - - - - - Bullock - - - - - - - - - Sestak - - - - - - - - - Steyer 1 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 16 18 17 11 14 22 24 13 8 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Biden 18% 15% 12% Sanders 27 27 29 O'Rourke 2 2 3 Harris 1 2 4 Warren 15 21 6 Booker 1 3 2 Klobuchar 7 4 - Castro - - 3 Gabbard 1 - 1 Delaney - - - Buttigieg 12 11 7 Yang 3 1 2 Williamson 1 - - Messam - - - Ryan - - - Bennet - - - Bullock - - - Sestak - - - Steyer 1 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 9 13 31 8. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) As you may know, there was a debate among the Democratic presidential candidates on Tuesday, October 15th. Which of the following statements best describes you: I watched or listened to all or most of the debate; I did not watch or listen to the debate, but I paid close attention to news stories about it afterwards; I did not watch or listen to the debate or pay close attention to news stories about it? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Watched/listened 29% 35% 26% 28% 32% 28% 30% 30% 31% 29% Paid attn to news 43 44 44 43 41 45 48 42 48 46 No watch/listen/attn 27 21 30 28 27 27 22 28 20 24 DK/NA - - - - - - - - 1 - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Watched/listened 31% 26% 17% 25% 30% 41% 23% 31% 35% Paid attn to news 46 38 42 46 46 42 44 43 45 No watch/listen/attn 23 36 40 29 23 16 34 26 19 DK/NA - - - - 1 - - - - TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) As you may know, there was a debate among the Democratic presidential candidates on Tuesday, October 15th. Which of the following statements best describes you: I watched or listened to all or most of the debate; I did not watch or listen to the debate, but I paid close attention to news stories about it afterwards; I did not watch or listen to the debate or pay close attention to news stories about it? (Note: Dates are based on most recent debate) DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.. Watch/ Paid No listen attn attn DK/NA Oct 24, 2019 29 43 27 - Aug 06, 2019 35 46 18 1 Jul 02, 2019 40 40 18 1 8a. (If watched/listened to debate or paid close attention q8) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think did the best job in the recent debate: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, or Tom Steyer? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE OR PAID CLOSE ATTENTION Q8.............. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 12% 3% 10% 13% 7% 15% 11% 13% 7% 16% Sanders 11 22 9 7 15 8 9 12 8 10 O'Rourke 1 - 3 - 1 1 - - - - Harris 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 4 Warren 26 35 29 22 30 23 26 28 28 22 Booker 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 Klobuchar 8 4 7 10 6 10 9 6 8 10 Castro - - 1 - - - - 1 - - Gabbard - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 17 14 19 19 18 17 20 11 23 16 Yang 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 - 1 - Steyer - - 1 - 1 - - - - - DK/NA 18 15 15 21 15 20 19 25 18 20 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 11% 15% 3% 16% 9% 13% 17% 7% 6% Sanders 9 18 25 14 7 4 13 9 12 O'Rourke - 4 4 1 - - - 3 1 Harris 3 6 7 4 2 2 4 3 4 Warren 28 20 32 23 26 23 26 31 24 Booker 2 2 1 - 2 3 1 3 1 Klobuchar 9 6 - 8 11 11 5 11 9 Castro - - - - - - - - - Gabbard - - 1 - - - - - - Buttigieg 18 15 10 17 21 21 8 19 26 Yang 1 1 4 2 - - 2 - 2 Steyer - 1 - 1 - - - - 1 DK/NA 20 13 14 14 21 21 23 14 14 DEBATE Q8.. Paid Watch Attn Biden 13% 11% Sanders 12 10 O'Rourke 1 1 Harris 8 1 Warren 22 28 Booker 3 1 Klobuchar 13 6 Castro - - Gabbard - - Buttigieg 20 15 Yang 1 1 Steyer 1 - DK/NA 8 25 TREND: (If watched/listened to debate or paid close attention) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think did the best job in the recent debate: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, or Tom Steyer? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS...................... WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE OR PAID CLOSE ATTENTION Oct 24 Aug 06 Jul 02 2019 2019 2019 Biden 12 15 6 Sanders 11 8 5 O'Rourke 1 2 1 Harris 3 8 47 Warren 26 28 17 Booker 2 7 1 Klobuchar 8 1 1 Castro - 1 3 Gabbard - 3 1 Buttigieg 17 4 3 Yang 1 2 - Steyer - na na Bennet na 1 - de Blasio na - - Delaney na - - Gillibrand na - - Hickenlooper na - - Inslee na - - Bullock na - na Ryan na - - Swalwell na na - Williamson na 2 1 DK/NA 18 17 14 8b. (If watched/listened to debate or paid close attention q8) And which of those candidates do you think did the worst job in the recent debate? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE OR PAID CLOSE ATTENTION Q8.............. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 15% 21% 13% 13% 17% 13% 17% 6% 19% 14% Sanders 2 - 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 4 O'Rourke 4 6 2 4 4 4 5 - 4 6 Harris 6 7 9 4 6 6 4 2 4 5 Warren 4 2 4 5 4 4 4 3 5 3 Booker 2 - 3 3 2 2 2 6 2 1 Klobuchar 2 2 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Castro 3 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 4 - Gabbard 11 20 10 8 12 10 13 7 15 12 Buttigieg 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 Yang 6 11 4 5 3 8 5 7 6 4 Steyer 2 - 3 3 3 2 2 5 2 3 DK/NA 41 25 43 44 40 42 39 54 35 45 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 12% 22% 19% 19% 13% 12% 16% 9% 19% Sanders 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 O'Rourke 4 3 5 1 6 4 4 5 3 Harris 5 8 11 2 8 3 3 11 5 Warren 5 2 - 8 2 6 4 1 5 Booker 2 2 7 1 2 - - 2 4 Klobuchar 2 3 6 4 1 1 4 1 1 Castro 3 3 2 4 2 5 1 7 3 Gabbard 13 5 14 13 11 9 8 13 14 Buttigieg 2 1 3 3 - 1 2 1 1 Yang 5 8 - 10 5 7 5 4 8 Steyer 1 6 - 1 3 4 1 6 2 DK/NA 44 33 32 32 45 46 50 40 30 DEBATE Q8.. Paid Watch Attn Biden 15% 15% Sanders 2 2 O'Rourke 7 2 Harris 7 5 Warren 5 3 Booker 1 3 Klobuchar 3 2 Castro 4 3 Gabbard 18 6 Buttigieg 2 1 Yang 10 3 Steyer 5 1 DK/NA 22 55 TREND: (If watched/listened to debate or paid close attention) And which of those candidates do you think did the worst job in the recent debate? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS...................... WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE OR PAID CLOSE ATTENTION Oct 24 Aug 06 Jul 02 2019 2019 2019 Biden 15 9 15 Sanders 2 3 3 O'Rourke 4 3 7 Harris 6 7 2 Warren 4 - 1 Booker 2 3 3 Klobuchar 2 1 1 Castro 3 - 1 Gabbard 11 1 - Buttigieg 1 - 1 Yang 6 2 7 Steyer 2 na na Bennet na 1 1 de Blasio na 6 2 Delaney na 6 1 Gillibrand na 1 1 Hickenlooper na 4 1 Inslee na 1 1 Bullock na 1 na Ryan na 2 1 Swalwell na na 1 Williamson na 9 16 DK/NA 41 38 36 9. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Do you think - Joe Biden is too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Too liberal 3% - 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 4% Not liberal enough 31 70 31 18 31 31 35 13 38 32 About right 61 28 59 74 59 62 59 76 57 62 DK/NA 6 2 6 6 7 5 3 10 3 2 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Too liberal 2% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% Not liberal enough 33 26 44 38 29 19 27 34 37 About right 60 62 47 57 60 75 63 61 57 DK/NA 5 7 5 2 9 4 7 4 2 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Too liberal 2% 3% 2% Not liberal enough 37 32 24 About right 60 61 60 DK/NA 1 3 14 10. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Do you think - Elizabeth Warren is too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Too liberal 26% 10% 17% 38% 28% 26% 33% 13% 37% 28% Not liberal enough 10 21 12 5 6 12 6 8 5 7 About right 54 67 64 45 52 54 56 50 54 58 DK/NA 10 2 6 12 13 9 5 29 4 7 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Too liberal 26% 27% 16% 24% 30% 36% 17% 31% 33% Not liberal enough 9 13 23 10 5 4 15 12 4 About right 54 52 56 55 54 52 56 52 58 DK/NA 11 9 5 12 11 8 13 5 4 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Too liberal 34% 27% 16% Not liberal enough 5 10 15 About right 56 56 47 DK/NA 5 7 22 11. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Do you think - Bernie Sanders is too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Too liberal 43% 16% 45% 54% 44% 42% 52% 32% 57% 44% Not liberal enough 4 2 6 5 3 6 4 6 2 7 About right 45 80 45 33 46 45 41 42 39 44 DK/NA 7 2 4 7 7 7 3 20 3 4 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Too liberal 40% 51% 33% 39% 49% 51% 28% 51% 55% Not liberal enough 4 5 5 4 3 5 6 1 4 About right 47 41 56 50 42 39 57 45 37 DK/NA 8 4 5 6 6 5 8 3 3 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Too liberal 52% 42% 34% Not liberal enough 2 7 3 About right 41 47 48 DK/NA 5 4 15 12. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) Do you think - Pete Buttigieg is too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Too liberal 6% 1% 5% 8% 7% 5% 5% 8% 4% 6% Not liberal enough 13 37 9 7 15 13 11 12 11 11 About right 58 53 71 57 57 59 68 39 71 63 DK/NA 22 9 15 28 21 24 16 41 13 20 PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Too liberal 5% 8% 7% 7% 4% 5% 8% 5% 5% Not liberal enough 13 15 26 13 11 6 16 19 8 About right 59 57 48 55 65 68 48 58 74 DK/NA 23 20 19 25 20 21 29 18 13 DEBATE Q8............ Paid Watch Attn No Attn Too liberal 5% 7% 5% Not liberal enough 15 15 9 About right 67 62 42 DK/NA 12 16 44
