November 11, 2019 - Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 54 Percent Definitely Wouldn't Vote For Bloomberg In Primary Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With less than 100 days to go, former Vice President Joe Biden has an edge in New Hampshire's Democratic primary for president, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll released today. Biden receives support from 20 percent of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, with Senator Elizabeth Warren getting 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg getting 15 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders at 14 percent.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard gets 6 percent, businessman Andrew Yang gets 4 percent, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Tom Steyer are each at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent, and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Independent voters, known as "undeclared voters" in New Hampshire, who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary are divided in their top choice. Biden receives 16 percent support among these voters, while Sanders and Buttigieg get 14 percent each, and Warren and Gabbard receive 10 percent each. Among registered Democrats who are likely to vote in the primary, Biden has 25 percent, Warren has 24 percent, Buttigieg receives 16 percent, and Sanders gets 14 percent.

"New Hampshire has mountains. Iowa has plains. They couldn't be more different except for the results of the last two Quinnipiac University polls, which both show 4 candidates in the top tier. Although Biden has a slight lead in the Granite State, it's far from rock solid, and both states are clearly still up for grabs," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

In a separate question, only 2 percent of likely Democratic primary voters say they would definitely vote for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg if he got into the race, while 37 percent say they would consider voting for him, and 54 percent say they definitely would not vote for him.

"If he truly is in, there is a lot of work to do. But with vast resources to draw from, Michael Bloomberg's nascent campaign could morph from 'under construction' to 'full steam ahead' in a New York minute," added Malloy.

There is a lot of potential for movement in the Democratic primary as 61 percent of those who express a preference say they might change their mind before the primary, while 38 percent say their mind is made up. Sanders voters are the most certain in their choice as 57 percent of Sanders voters say their mind is made up, compared to 43 percent of Biden voters, 29 percent of Warren voters, and 24 percent of Buttigieg voters.

Most likely voters are either "extremely excited" (22 percent) or "very excited" (34 percent) about the candidate they are supporting, while 33 percent are "mildly excited" and 10 percent say they are "not that excited." Sanders voters are the most excited, as 44 percent of his voters say they are extremely excited to support his candidacy, compared to 21 percent of Warren voters, 19 percent of Biden voters, and 12 percent of Buttigieg voters.

Nearly one-third (32 percent) of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters say the most important candidate quality in deciding who to vote for is "someone who can win the general election," followed by "honesty" at 24 percent, "someone who cares about people like you" at 18 percent, "good leadership skills" at 14 percent, and only 7 percent saying "experience in public office."

Perceived electability is helping Biden, as he leads the primary with 31 percent of the vote among those who say that electability is the most important candidate quality to them. Warren gets 20 percent of these "electability" voters, while Buttigieg receives 19 percent, and Sanders gets 6 percent.

Sanders does better among those who care most about honesty, as he gets 18 percent of the vote, while Biden and Buttigieg each get 14 percent, and Warren gets 13 percent. Sanders is also the top choice for people looking for a candidate who cares about them with 25 percent support, with Warren at 13 percent, Biden getting 12 percent, and Buttigieg and Yang each at 9 percent. Buttigieg is at the top for those who most want a candidate with good leadership skills, winning 24 percent of the vote, with Warren at 19 percent, Gabbard at 14 percent, Biden at 10 percent, and Sanders at 8 percent.

Health care is the most important issue to 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with climate change at 25 percent and the economy at 12 percent.

From November 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,134 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. The question on Michael Bloomberg was added on November 8 and was asked of 636 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@quinnipiac.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......................................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTY REG                   COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
A lot                66%    70%    73%    62%    73%    61%    64%    68%    68%    64%
Some                 22     25     16     24     21     23     23     21     23     23
Only a little         8      5      7     10      5     11     10      7      6     11
None at all           3      -      5      4      2      5      3      4      2      2
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    INCOME.............  DENSITY............
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+  City   Suburb Rural
 
A lot                47%    56%    73%    82%    62%    70%    67%    67%    66%    66%
Some                 23     33     22     14     22     20     25     21     23     22
Only a little        19      8      4      3      9      7      7      7      9      8
None at all          10      4      1      -      6      2      1      5      2      3
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
2. If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro, Gabbard, Delaney, Buttigieg, Yang, Williamson, Messam, Bennet, Bullock, Sestak, or Steyer?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......................................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTY REG                   COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                20%     9%    21%    24%    25%    16%    19%    21%    20%    21%
Sanders              14     22     21      8     14     14     19     11     11     17
Harris                1      2      1      1      2      1      1      1      2      -
Warren               16     35     21     10     24     10     11     20     20     13
Booker                1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2      -
Klobuchar             3      2      2      4      2      4      2      4      4      3
Castro                1      3      1      -      1      -      -      1      -      1
Gabbard               6      2      2      9      1     10      9      4      5      6
Delaney               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg            15     11     21     15     16     14     13     17     21     11
Yang                  4      5      1      4      3      5      8      1      3      5
Williamson            -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Messam                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Bennet                1      -      -      1      -      1      -      1      1      1
Bullock               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Sestak                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Steyer                3      3      3      3      3      3      4      3      2      5
DK/NA                14      5      6     18      7     20     13     15     10     17
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    INCOME.............  DENSITY............
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+  City   Suburb Rural
 
Biden                12%    16%    19%    31%    25%    19%    17%    21%    20%    20%
Sanders              29     19      9      8     19     13     14     16     14     14
Harris                1      2      1      1      1      2      1      1      1      1
Warren               19     13     19     15     13     18     18     16     16     16
Booker                -      3      1      2      1      2      1      3      -      1
Klobuchar             -      1      4      7      1      4      4      2      4      3
Castro                1      2      -      -      -      1      -      -      1      1
Gabbard               4      8      8      3      3      8      7      4      6      7
Delaney               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg             9     19     17     16     11     14     22     14     14     17
Yang                 12      3      2      1      5      5      4      2      7      3
Williamson            -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Messam                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Bennet                -      -      1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -
Bullock               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Sestak                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Steyer                2      1      4      5      4      4      1      4      4      3
DK/NA                11     13     15     10     17      9     10     16     12     14
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q3          MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q4
                     Win    Good                                Health Climate
                     2020   leader Honest Cares         Econ    care   change
 
Biden                31%    10%    14%    12%           17%     22%    18%
Sanders               6      8     18     25             4      21     18
Harris                2      1      -      -             -       1      2
Warren               20     19     13     13            13      16     22
Booker                1      2      1      -             1       1      1
Klobuchar             5      3      4      1             3       4      4
Castro                -      -      -      2             -       2      -
Gabbard               2     14      8      6            14       3      2
Delaney               -      -      -      -             -       -      -
Buttigieg            19     24     14      9            11      13     19
Yang                  1      1      6      9            13       1      3
Williamson            -      -      -      -             -       -      -
Messam                -      -      -      -             -       -      -
Bennet                1      1      -      1             -       1      -
Bullock               -      -      -      -             -       -      -
Sestak                -      -      -      -             -       -      -
Steyer                3      3      4      3             3       3      5
DK/NA                 8     14     17     18            20      11      5
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) How excited are you to support [candidate chosen]; are you extremely excited, very excited, mildly excited, or not that excited?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.......................................
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2.............................
                     Tot    Biden         Sanders       Warren        Buttigieg
 
Extremely excited    22%    19%           44%           21%           12%
Very excited         34     30            23            44            45
Mildly excited       33     35            22            32            38
Not that excited     10     14             8             4             4
DK/NA                 2      2             2             -             -
 
 
2b. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.......................................
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2.............................
                     Tot    Biden         Sanders       Warren        Buttigieg
 
Made up              38%    43%           57%           29%           24%
Might change         61     56            41            70            73
DK/NA                 2      1             2             1             3
 
 
2c. (If candidate chosen q2) Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2.............................
                     Tot    Biden         Sanders       Warren        Buttigieg
 
Biden                10%     -             9%           12%           28%
Sanders              12     16             -            27             6
Harris                3      5             2             7             3
Warren               17     20            45             -            25
Booker                2      3             3             3             4
Klobuchar             4      9             -             2             9
Castro                -      -             -             2             -
Gabbard               2      1             5             1             1
Delaney               -      1             -             -             -
Buttigieg            13     20             7            28             -
Yang                  4      1             8             3             3
Williamson            -      -             -             -             1
Messam                -      -             -             -             -
Bennet                -      1             -             -             -
Bullock               -      -             1             -             -
Sestak                -      -             -             -             -
Steyer                3      3             4             3             6
No first choice      14      -             -             -             -
DK/NA                15     20            16            13            12
 
 
3. Which of these is the most important candidate quality to you in deciding who to vote for in the Democratic primary for president: someone who can win the general election in 2020, good leadership skills, honesty, someone who cares about people like you, or experience in public office?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......................................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTY REG                   COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Win 2020 election    32%    39%    39%    28%    43%    23%    29%    35%    43%    24%
Good leadership      14      9     11     17     11     17     12     15     16     11
Honesty              24     19     19     27     18     28     27     21     19     26
Cares about people   18     21     17     18     18     18     22     16     13     24
Public office exp     7      7     10      6      6      8      5      8      5     10
DK/NA                 5      5      4      3      5      5      5      5      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    INCOME.............  DENSITY............
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+  City   Suburb Rural
 
Win 2020 election    17%    28%    41%    43%    30%    34%    38%    30%    35%    32%
Good leadership      15     15     13     13      7     14     20     15     15     13
Honesty              28     16     23     25     25     25     23     22     19     26
Cares about people   30     31     12      7     23     18     11     17     23     17
Public office exp     8      5      6      7     12      5      4     10      4      7
DK/NA                 2      5      4      5      3      5      4      6      4      5
 
 
4. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the Democratic primary for president: the economy, immigration, health care, taxes, climate change, education, foreign policy, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......................................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTY REG                   COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              12%     3%     6%    17%     5%    17%    16%     9%    13%    11%
Immigration           5      3      2      7      4      6      5      5      3      5
Health care          28     35     30     26     34     24     24     32     29     30
Taxes                 4      2      2      6      3      6      6      3      3      5
Climate change       25     38     33     19     33     19     23     27     28     25
Education             7      5      9      6      5      8      9      5      6      7
Foreign policy        7      6      9      7      6      9      8      7      9      6
Gun policy            5      4      5      5      5      5      4      5      4      5
DK/NA                 7      4      4      7      6      7      5      8      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    INCOME.............  DENSITY............
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+  City   Suburb Rural
 
Economy              12%    11%    14%     9%     7%    13%    15%    10%    17%    11%
Immigration           4      4      7      4      3      3      5      6      5      5
Health care          26     35     30     26     38     25     23     31     23     30
Taxes                 6      5      4      2      4      3      7      4      8      3
Climate change       25     21     22     33     25     28     25     23     21     27
Education            12      9      4      4      6     10      5     11      6      5
Foreign policy        8      5      7      9      6      8      8      7      8      7
Gun policy            3      5      6      5      5      5      5      4      6      5
DK/NA                 4      5      6      7      5      4      6      5      7      7
 
 
5. Have you voted in any previous primary, or will this be your first primary?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......................................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTY REG                   COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Voted previous       93%    92%    95%    92%    95%    92%    87%    97%    98%    88%
First primary         6      8      5      7      5      7     12      3      1     11
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      -      1      1      -      -      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    INCOME.............  DENSITY............
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+  City   Suburb Rural
 
Voted previous       75%    98%    96%    98%    87%    97%    96%    89%    95%    94%
First primary        23      2      4      2     13      3      4     11      3      6
DK/NA                 2      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      2      -
 
 
6. As you may know, it has been recently reported that Michael Bloomberg is preparing for a possible candidacy in the Democratic presidential primary. Would you definitely vote for him in the Democratic primary, consider voting for him in the Democratic primary, or would you definitely not vote for him in the Democratic primary? (Question asked 11/8/2019 - 11/10/2019)
                     LIKELY VOTERS......................................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTY REG                   COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Definitely vote       2%     -      2%     4%     2%     3%     2%     3%     3%     -
Consider voting      37     33     48     37     37     37     34     39     39     36
Definitely not vote  54     65     49     51     58     50     59     50     53     57
DK/NA                 7      3      2      8      3     10      5      8      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............  DENSITY............
                     18-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+  City   Suburb Rural
 
Definitely vote       2%     2%     3%     3%     1%     4%     5%     2%     2%
Consider voting      39     37     40     31     40     41     36     43     35
Definitely not vote  52     56     51     57     55     50     53     47     56
DK/NA                 7      5      6      9      4      5      6      8      7
 
                     CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2.............................
                     Biden         Sanders       Warren        Buttigieg
 
Definitely vote       9%            -             1%            2%
Consider voting      38            35            41            44
Definitely not vote  50            62            58            51
DK/NA                 3             3             -             2