September 13, 2017 - Dem Has Huge Lead In New Jersey Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Guadagno's Ties To Christie Are Big Negative Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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In the race for New Jersey governor, Democrat Phil Murphy leads Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 58 - 33 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Murphy leads Guadagno among every party, gender, education, age and racial group listed, except Republicans, who back Guadagno 78 - 16 percent; white voters with no college degree, who are divided with 46 percent for Guadagno and 42 percent for Murphy, and white men who are split with 46 percent for Murphy and 45 percent for Guadagno, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

This survey of likely voters can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

New Jersey likely voters have a 37 - 18 percent favorable opinion of Murphy, with 43 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. Guadagno gets a negative 25 - 33 percent favorability, with 40 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Taxes is the most important issue in deciding their vote for governor, 30 percent of likely voters say, as 15 percent list the economy; 13 percent cite education and 11 percent say health care.

"As far as candidate qualifications go, New Jersey is holding a stealth election. Democrat Phil Murphy swamps Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, but about 40 percent of voters don't know much about either of them," said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Each of them dominates among their own party's voters, but Murphy gets more Democrats and there are more of them to get in very blue New Jersey.

"Predictably, taxes are the number one voter concern.

"Working for Goldman Sachs hurts Murphy a little. Serving as lieutenant governor to Gov. Chris Christie hurts Guadagno a lot more.

"Are New Jersey voters buying a pig in a poke? It will be an interesting governorship."

For 47 percent of New Jersey likely voters, Guadagno's role as lieutenant governor to Gov. Christopher Christie has a negative impact on their opinion of her. Another 11 percent say it has a positive impact and 40 percent say it doesn't matter.

Murphy's 23 years at Goldman Sachs creates a negative impact on the opinion of 30 percent of likely voters. For 6 percent, it has a positive impact and 60 percent say it doesn't matter.

From September 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.


1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Phil Murphy the Democrat and Kim Guadagno the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Phil Murphy the Democrat or Kim Guadagno the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               58%    16%    95%    50%    51%    64%    57%    42%
Guadagno             33     78      4     36     39     28     36     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      5      4      -      2      1
DK/NA                 7      6      1     10      6      9      5     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Murphy               71%    62%    58%    51%    46%    57%    51%    74%
Guadagno             25     32     33     38     45     34     40     17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      1      1      3      -      2      2
DK/NA                 -      4      8     10      5      9      7      6
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Phil Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            37%    16%    59%    30%    36%    37%    39%    27%
Unfavorable          18     34      4     23     25     13     22     26
Hvn't hrd enough     43     48     36     44     38     47     38     47
REFUSED               2      2      1      4      1      3      1      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Favorable            35%    43%    38%    32%    32%    37%    35%    41%
Unfavorable          14     15     22     17     30     17     23      7
Hvn't hrd enough     51     37     39     49     37     46     41     46
REFUSED               -      5      1      3      -      1      1      6
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Kim Guadagno favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            25%    51%    11%    25%    31%    21%    32%    33%
Unfavorable          33     10     52     30     33     32     37     29
Hvn't hrd enough     40     37     36     41     33     45     30     36
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      3      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Favorable            21%    21%    28%    28%    38%    27%    32%    10%
Unfavorable          27     39     35     28     34     34     34     31
Hvn't hrd enough     52     38     35     40     26     39     32     56
REFUSED               -      2      2      4      2      1      2      3
 
 
12. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, the budget, health care, the environment, race relations, or ethics in government?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Taxes                30%    38%    20%    34%    30%    29%    25%    38%
Economy              15     23     14     12     20     11     19     16
Education            13      8     20     12      9     17     16      4
Budget                7     11      4      8      7      6      6     12
Health care          11      7     18      8      7     15      9      8
Environment           5      -      4      7      6      4      6      6
Race relations        3      1      2      3      3      2      1      1
Ethics in government 10      9     11     10     10     10     13      9
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      1      2      3      4      2      2      2
DK/NA                 3      2      5      3      3      4      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Taxes                12%    27%    29%    37%    30%    31%    31%    25%
Economy              12     16     17     12     21     14     18      9
Education            21     21     11      7      7     15     11     19
Budget                8      9      6      7     10      7      9      3
Health care          11      7     15     10      6     12      9     18
Environment          10      4      4      8      7      5      6      4
Race relations        1      2      4      2      1      -      1      7
Ethics in government 20     12      8      9     13     10     12      8
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   -      2      2      2      3      2      2      2
DK/NA                 4      -      3      7      1      3      2      5
 
 
13. As you may know, Phil Murphy worked for Goldman Sachs for 23 years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Positive              6%     7%     5%     7%     7%     5%     8%     2%
Negative             30     22     26     37     33     28     35     30
No impact            60     69     65     52     56     64     55     63
DK/NA                 4      2      3      4      5      3      2      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Positive              3%     7%     7%     5%     6%     6%     6%     7%
Negative             34     34     29     25     36     30     33     24
No impact            62     56     62     62     56     61     58     64
DK/NA                 -      4      1      8      3      3      3      5
 
 
14. As you may know, Kim Guadagno has been Chris Christie's lieutenant governor for about eight years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Positive             11%    30%     2%     9%    14%     8%    14%    16%
Negative             47     13     70     47     46     48     51     35
No impact            40     57     27     42     38     42     34     47
DK/NA                 2      -      1      2      2      2      -      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Positive             14%     7%     9%    14%    18%    12%    15%     2%
Negative             53     57     48     36     44     46     45     53
No impact            33     36     41     47     38     40     39     43
DK/NA                 -      -      1      3      -      2      1      2