October 17, 2018 - Menendez Up 7 Points In New Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Incumbent Has Big Negative Favorability Rating Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Despite a big negative favorability rating, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, the Democratic incumbent, leads former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, the Republican challenger, 51 - 44 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Only 5 percent of likely voters remain undecided, but 10 percent of voters who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.

Today's results compare to a 53 - 42 percent lead by Sen. Menendez in an October 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Women and non-white voters remain the key to Menendez' support:
  • Women back the Democrat 56 - 38 percent. Men are divided with 51 percent for Hugin and 46 percent for Menendez;
  • The incumbent leads 63 - 28 percent among non-white voters. White voters go 52 percent for Hugin and 46 percent for Menendez;
  • Republicans back Hugin 96 - 2 percent, as Democrats go to Menendez 92 - 6 percent. Independent voters tip to Hugin 51 - 44 percent.
New Jersey likely voters give Menendez a big negative 36 - 52 percent favorability rating. Hugin gets a positive 39 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 28 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

"Support from women remains key to Sen. Robert Menendez' standing in this race as his favorability rating is stuck deep underwater," said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"The question for Bob Hugin is: can he win over those voters who say they are undecided or are backing Menendez and indicate they may change their mind? It will come down to how he defines himself in these last few weeks before Election Day as nearly 30 percent of voters say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him."

From October 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 873 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Bob Hugin the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Robert Menendez the Democrat or more toward Bob Hugin the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Menendez             51%     2%    92%    44%    46%    56%    52%    37%
Hugin                44     96      6     51     51     38     46     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      2      2      5      3      6      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Menendez             37%    54%    46%    63%
Hugin                62     43     52     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      2      2      8
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Menendez             41%    61%    30%    43%
Hugin                58     36     68     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      2      2      3
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Menendez              2%     2%    90%    93%    39%    49%
Hugin                98     94      9      4     57     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 -      3      -      3      3      8
 
                     AREA.............................
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Menendez             72%    50%    47%    57%    33%
Hugin                24     46     53     34     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      4      1      9      6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Menendez      Hugin
 
Mind made up         88%    87%           88%
Might change         10     10            10
DK/NA                 2      2             2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            36%     6%    66%    24%    31%    39%    30%    29%
Unfavorable          52     89     24     61     60     44     61     64
Hvn't hrd enough      7      5      7     10      4     10      5      6
REFUSED               5      -      4      5      4      6      3      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            24%    35%    30%    49%
Unfavorable          72     54     62     30
Hvn't hrd enough      3      8      5     11
REFUSED               2      3      3     10
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            22%    38%    26%    31%
Unfavorable          73     51     71     58
Hvn't hrd enough      3      7      2      9
REFUSED               2      4      1      2
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             5%     6%    62%    69%    23%    26%
Unfavorable          92     87     29     20     70     51
Hvn't hrd enough      3      7      5      8      5     15
REFUSED               1      -      5      3      3      8
 
                     AREA.............................
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            50%    33%    35%    36%    30%
Unfavorable          36     56     63     41     59
Hvn't hrd enough      7      7      2     16      2
REFUSED               7      4      1      7      9
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Bob Hugin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            39%    83%    10%    40%    42%    37%    42%    51%
Unfavorable          30      4     56     22     28     33     34     24
Hvn't hrd enough     28     14     32     35     30     26     22     25
REFUSED               3      -      2      3      -      5      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            50%    42%    46%    24%
Unfavorable          25     34     30     32
Hvn't hrd enough     24     22     23     39
REFUSED               -      2      1      4
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%    36%    51%    51%
Unfavorable          28     39     21     26
Hvn't hrd enough     21     23     28     21
REFUSED               1      2      -      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            83%    83%    12%     9%    41%    40%
Unfavorable           5      2     53     59     21     23
Hvn't hrd enough     12     15     36     29     37     32
REFUSED               -      -      -      3      1      5
 
                     AREA.............................
                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore
 
Favorable            23%    40%    47%    29%    53%
Unfavorable          38     28     35     33     22
Hvn't hrd enough     36     28     18     34     23
REFUSED               3      3      -      4      2