October 18, 2018 - Cuomo Dominates New York Gov Race With 23-Point Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gillibrand Has Big Lead Over Little-Known Challenger Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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A 6-1 lead in New York City overcomes a shortfall upstate as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic incumbent, tops Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, the Republican challenger, 58 - 35 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

While 5 percent of New York State likely voters are undecided, 13 percent of voters who do name a candidate say they might change their mind by November 6, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Gov. Cuomo benefits from a 62 - 30 percent lead among women and 54 - 40 percent support from men.

The Democrat leads 77 - 13 percent among New York City likely voters. Cuomo gets 52 percent of suburban voters to Molinaro's 45 percent. Upstate likely voters go to the Republican 52 - 41 percent.

Cuomo leads 88 - 6 percent among Democrats and 54 - 38 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Molinaro 81 - 13 percent.

White voters go 48 percent for Cuomo and 46 percent for Molinaro. Non-white voters back Cuomo 77 - 15 percent.

Likely voters give Cuomo a 51 - 40 percent favorability rating. Molinaro gets a 28 - 22 percent favorability, with 48 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

"Besides running in a deeply blue state against Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a two-term incumbent with a big advantage in campaign funds, the lack of name recognition for Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro is a huge hurdle to overcome in less than three weeks until Election Day," said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"In a campaign where Gov. Cuomo continues to hammer President Donald Trump and his policies, Molinaro also has the challenge of running in a state where Trump has a 37 percent job approval rating," Snow added.

Health care is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor, 17 percent of New York State likely voters say, as 16 percent list taxes and 15 percent say the economy, with 13 percent each for education and immigration.

U.S. Senate Race

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican challenger Chele Farley 58 - 33 percent, leading among both men and women.

While 8 percent of likely voters are undecided, 15 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day.

Sen. Gillibrand gets a 48 - 29 percent favorability rating. For Farley, 66 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"As U.S. Senate elections are being closely watched in battleground states, some New Yorkers may be surprised to know there is a Senate race here, as Chele Farley, the Republican challenger to Democrat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is largely unknown," Snow said.

President Trump's Job Approval

New York State likely voters disapprove 60 - 37 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Disapproval is 73 - 22 percent in New York City and 54 - 46 percent in the suburbs. Upstate voters are divided as 49 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove.

From October 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 852 New York likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Marc Molinaro the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Cuomo the Democrat or more toward Marc Molinaro the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cuomo                58%    13%    88%    54%    54%    62%    54%    40%
Molinaro             35     81      6     38     40     30     41     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      1      2      2      3
DK/NA                 5      5      5      4      4      6      3      4
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo                45%    51%    48%    77%    41%    77%    52%
Molinaro             50     41     46     15     52     13     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      -      2      2      -
DK/NA                 2      5      4      8      4      8      3
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                45%    63%    46%    34%
Molinaro             50     32     51     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      5
DK/NA                 3      4      1      7
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                15%    10%    83%    91%    57%    52%
Molinaro             82     81      9      5     40     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      -      1      6
DK/NA                 1      9      8      4      2      6
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q7............
                                   Health        Gun
                     Econ   Taxes  Care   Imgrtn Policy Eductn Envirmnt
 
Cuomo                45%    31%    85%    44%    62%    73%    81%
Molinaro             49     64     11     52     30     22     16
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      8      2      1
DK/NA                 5      5      4      5      -      2      2
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Cuomo         Molinaro
 
Mind made up         84%    79%           92%
Might change         13     17             7
DK/NA                 3      4             1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            51%    18%    77%    43%    47%    55%    47%    35%
Unfavorable          40     79     15     44     45     36     49     56
Hvn't hrd enough      6      -      7      8      6      5      3      3
REFUSED               3      3      1      5      2      4      2      6
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            37%    46%    42%    69%    35%    68%    48%
Unfavorable          57     46     52     19     58     20     47
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      3     11      3     10      2
REFUSED               2      5      4      1      5      1      3
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    54%    35%    36%
Unfavorable          56     42     59     53
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      4      2
REFUSED               2      2      2      9
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            16%    19%    72%    80%    48%    38%
Unfavorable          83     74     16     14     43     45
Hvn't hrd enough      -      1     11      4      6     10
REFUSED               1      6      1      1      3      7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Marc Molinaro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            28%    58%     6%    34%    32%    24%    30%    36%
Unfavorable          22      5     36     16     24     21     20     14
Hvn't hrd enough     48     34     55     48     43     52     48     46
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      1      3      2      4
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            37%    28%    32%    21%    36%    17%    34%
Unfavorable          20     15     18     31     16     29     19
Hvn't hrd enough     41     53     48     48     46     51     44
REFUSED               1      4      3      1      2      2      3
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            36%    25%    39%    32%
Unfavorable          22     18     17     11
Hvn't hrd enough     41     55     42     51
REFUSED               1      3      1      6
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            61%    55%     9%     5%    33%    35%
Unfavorable           6      4     39     35     20     10
Hvn't hrd enough     32     37     51     58     45     51
REFUSED               1      4      1      2      1      4
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Chele Farley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat or more toward Chele Farley the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Gillibrand           58%    18%    86%    53%    51%    65%    59%    40%
Farley               33     78      5     39     40     27     36     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      3      9      8      9      7      5      6
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Gillibrand           43%    59%    51%    71%    49%    71%    52%
Farley               51     37     44     15     46     16     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      5      5     13      5     13      4
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Gillibrand           49%    68%    34%    45%
Farley               46     27     57     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      5      8      4
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Gillibrand           18%    19%    80%    90%    51%    56%
Farley               80     76      7      3     42     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4     14      6      7      9
 
 
4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    Gillibrand    Farley
 
Mind made up         84%    80%           89%
Might change         15     19            10
DK/NA                 1      1             1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            48%    14%    69%    47%    42%    54%    54%    31%
Unfavorable          29     68      6     30     37     21     34     46
Hvn't hrd enough     22     16     24     23     20     24     11     23
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            37%    51%    44%    55%    45%    53%    45%
Unfavorable          46     31     39     11     40     15     37
Hvn't hrd enough     16     17     16     33     14     31     18
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            46%    61%    26%    36%
Unfavorable          42     26     52     40
Hvn't hrd enough     11     12     22     24
REFUSED               1      2      1      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            15%    13%    66%    72%    41%    53%
Unfavorable          73     63      9      4     36     22
Hvn't hrd enough     11     22     25     24     22     24
REFUSED               1      2      -      1      1      1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Chele Farley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            19%    40%     6%    20%    24%    15%    16%    29%
Unfavorable          13      3     18     14     16     11     13      7
Hvn't hrd enough     66     56     75     63     59     73     70     61
REFUSED               1      1      1      3      2      1      1      3
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            25%    18%    21%    14%    25%    11%    24%
Unfavorable          12      9     10     19     12     14     15
Hvn't hrd enough     61     72     67     67     63     73     60
REFUSED               3      1      2      1      1      2      1
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            20%    12%    31%    27%
Unfavorable          14     12      9      5
Hvn't hrd enough     66     75     55     68
REFUSED               1      1      5      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            40%    39%    10%     3%    22%    17%
Unfavorable           4      3     25     15     16     13
Hvn't hrd enough     54     58     65     81     58     69
REFUSED               2      -      -      1      3      2
 
 
7. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, gun policy, education, race relations, or the environment?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              15%    24%     8%    16%    18%    12%    18%    15%
Taxes                16     23      7     20     19     12     17     24
Health care          17      9     24     14     13     22     17     17
Immigration          13     19     14     10     12     14     10      8
Gun policy            9      9     10      8      8      9      9     12
Education            13      8     16     14     14     12     10     13
Race relations        5      1      8      3      5      4      2      1
Environment           7      3      7     10      5      8     11      4
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      1      2      3      3      1      3      2
DK/NA                 4      4      3      3      3      5      4      3
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Economy              20%    14%    17%    11%    15%    13%    16%
Taxes                22     18     20      7     20     10     19
Health care          13     21     17     19     17     18     16
Immigration          10      9      9     22     11     15     13
Gun policy           10     10     10      7      9      8     10
Education            12     11     11     16      9     16     13
Race relations        2      2      2     10      2      8      3
Environment           7      9      8      5      9      6      6
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      2      2      -      3      1      1
DK/NA                 3      4      3      4      4      5      3
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Economy              23%    14%    15%    14%
Taxes                22     13     23     24
Health care          13     20     12     23
Immigration          10     10     10      7
Gun policy            6     11     15      9
Education             8     12     16     10
Race relations        3      1      -      3
Environment          10     12      4      5
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      3      3      1
DK/NA                 3      4      2      4
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Economy              22%    25%     9%     8%    21%    10%
Taxes                23     23     11      4     23     17
Health care           2     17     17     29     15     12
Immigration          24     13      9     17      9     10
Gun policy           16      2      7     12      5     10
Education             9      6     27     10      8     20
Race relations        -      2     13      5      1      4
Environment           2      5      3      9     11      9
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      -      3      1      3      3
DK/NA                 1      7      2      4      3      4
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              37%    87%    10%    37%    44%    31%    36%    65%
Disapprove           60      9     88     59     54     65     59     34
DK/NA                 3      4      2      4      2      4      5      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    AREA.............
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Approve              56%    41%    48%    18%    49%    22%    46%
Disapprove           41     56     49     79     48     73     54
DK/NA                 3      3      3      3      3      5      1
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Approve              44%    29%    72%    58%
Disapprove           52     66     26     41
DK/NA                 4      5      2      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Approve              88%    85%    15%     7%    39%    34%
Disapprove            9      8     85     90     56     63
DK/NA                 2      6      -      3      4      3