September 24, 2020 - 2020 Race: Trump Has Slight Edge In Texas, A Tight Race In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Texas Senate Race: Cornyn Leads Hegar Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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TEXAS: TRUMP 50%, BIDEN 45%

OHIO: BIDEN 48%, TRUMP 47%

In Texas and Ohio, two states where President Trump won easily in 2016, the president holds a slight lead in Texas and it's too close to call in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in both states. These are the first surveys from the Quinnipiac University Poll in both Texas and Ohio to use likely voters and results cannot be compared to prior surveys of registered voters.

"With six weeks to go until Election Day and most minds made up, Ohio could hinge on a sliver of likely voters who signal they may have a change of heart and the four percent who say they are unsure right now who they'll back. At this point, it's a toss-up," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

"It is close but leaning toward Trump in Texas. There are still a slim number of likely voters who are undecided or on the fence about their choice, which could leave just enough wiggle room for either candidate to take Texas' many electoral votes," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

MIND MADE UP

In Ohio, 97 percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 3 percent saying they might change their minds. In Texas, 94 percent say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying their minds might change.

VOTING IN 2020

In Ohio, 46 percent of likely voters plan on voting in person on Election Day. Thirty-five percent plan on voting by mail/absentee ballot, and 16 percent plan on voting at an early voting location.

In Texas, 47 percent of likely voters plan on voting at an early voting location, 38 percent plan on voting in person, and 13 percent plan on voting by mail/absentee ballots.

TEXAS: BIDEN VS. TRUMP

Likely voters in Texas give President Trump a mixed favorability rating, with 49 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 47 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

Former Vice President Biden has a negative favorability rating among likely voters in Texas, 41 - 52 percent.

Trump has clear leads in three of five categories among likely voters when asked who would do a better job handling issues:
  • On handling the economy: Trump 58 percent, Biden 39 percent;
  • On handling the military: Trump 52 percent, Biden 45 percent;
  • On keeping your family safe: Trump 52 percent, Biden 44 percent;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus: Trump 49 percent, Biden 47 percent;
  • On handling racial inequality: Biden 50 percent, Trump 45 percent.
TEXAS: TRUMP APPROVALS

Likely voters are divided on the way Trump is handling his job as president, 50 - 48 percent, and are similarly split on his handling of the response to the coronavirus, 49 - 49 percent.

TEXAS: SENATE RACE

In the race for the U.S. Senate where incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fourth term, Cornyn leads Democratic challenger MJ Hegar 50 - 42 percent. Eighty-four percent of voters say their minds are made up, while 15 percent say they may change their minds.

Thirty-nine percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cornyn, 30 percent say unfavorable, and 30 percent say they haven't heard enough about him. Twenty-nine percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Hegar, 19 percent say unfavorable, and 50 percent say they haven't heard enough about her.

OHIO: BIDEN VS. TRUMP

Ohio likely voters give Biden a mixed favorability rating, with 45 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 49 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

Trump has a negative favorability rating among likely voters in Ohio, 45 - 51 percent.

Biden leads on the coronavirus response and racial inequality, while President Trump has the advantage on the economy. Likely voters are mixed when it comes to handling the military and keeping your family safe:
  • On handling the economy: Trump 52 percent, Biden 45 percent;
  • On handling the military: Trump 50 percent, Biden 47 percent;
  • On keeping your family safe: Trump 48 percent, Biden 48 percent;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus: Biden 50 percent, Trump 45 percent;
  • On handling racial inequality: Biden 53 percent, Trump 41 percent.
OHIO: TRUMP APPROVALS

Likely voters slightly disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president, 51 - 46 percent, and also disapprove of his handling of the response to the coronavirus, 52 - 45 percent.

From September 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,085 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points;
  • 1,078 likely voters in Texas with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.


1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Biden                48%    45%
Trump                47     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -
DK/NA                 4      4
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                     OH     TX
 
Mind made up         97%    94%
Might change          3      5
DK/NA                 -      1
 
 
2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
In person            46%    38%
Mail/Absentee ballot 35     13
Early voting loc     16     47
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -
DK/NA                 3      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Favorable            45%    41%
Unfavorable          49     52
Hvn't hrd enough      3      4
REFUSED               3      2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Favorable            45%    49%
Unfavorable          51     47
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1
REFUSED               2      2
 
 
5_TXonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were MJ Hegar the Democrat and John Cornyn the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward MJ Hegar the Democrat or John Cornyn the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Hegar                 -     42%
Cornyn                -     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -
DK/NA                 -      7
 
 
5a_TXonly. (If candidate chosen q5) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q5
                     OH     TX
 
Mind made up          -     84%
Might change          -     15
DK/NA                 -      1
 
 
6_TXonly. Is your opinion of MJ Hegar favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Favorable             -     29%
Unfavorable           -     19
Hvn't hrd enough      -     50
REFUSED               -      2
 
 
7_TXonly. Is your opinion of John Cornyn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Favorable             -     39%
Unfavorable           -     30
Hvn't hrd enough      -     30
REFUSED               -      1
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Approve              46%    50%
Disapprove           51     48
DK/NA                 3      2
 
 
9. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for president: the economy, immigration, health care, climate change, the coronavirus pandemic, racial inequality, law and order, or the Supreme Court?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Economy              27%    25%
Immigration           2      4
Health care           9      7
Climate change        6      4
Coronavirus          14     16
Racial inequality    11     11
Law and order        17     18
Supreme Court         8      8
DK/NA                 6      6
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Approve              45%    49%
Disapprove           52     49
DK/NA                 3      2
 
 
11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Trump                52%    58%
Biden                45     39
DK/NA                 3      3
 
 
12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling racial inequality: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Trump                41%    45%
Biden                53     50
DK/NA                 6      5
 
 
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the response to the coronavirus: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Trump                45%    49%
Biden                50     47
DK/NA                 5      4
 
 
14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the military: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     OH     TX
 
Trump                50%    52%
Biden                47     45
DK/NA                 4      3
 
 
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - keeping you and your family safe: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?