October 29, 2018 - Cruz Ahead By Inches In Tight Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Abbott Ahead 14 Points In Governor's Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz clings to a narrow 51 - 46 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic challenger in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 54 - 45 percent Cruz likely voter lead in an October 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Today, O'Rourke leads 56 - 40 percent among independent voters and 96 - 2 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Cruz 96 - 3 percent.

Men back the Republican 56 - 39 percent, as women go Democratic 52 - 45 percent. White voters back Cruz 67 - 30 percent. O'Rourke leads 86 - 12 percent among black voters and 60 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters.

Only 3 percent of Texas likely voters remain undecided and only 2 percent of likely voters who name a U.S. Senate candidate say they might change their mind in the next eight days.

"With a week to go, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz remains in front, with a slim lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke. O'Rourke is within striking distance, but time is running out in a race that Democrats have hoped would deliver an upset victory that would be key to a Senate takeover," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Sen. Cruz is ahead due to his winning the 'gender gap.' He wins men 56 - 39 percent, while Representative O'Rourke can manage only a 52 - 45 percent edge among women."

Governor's Race

In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 54 - 40 percent among likely voters.

Gov. Abbott leads 97 - 1 percent among Republicans, while Valdez leads 88 - 7 percent among Democrats. Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Valdez and 44 percent for Abbott.

The governor leads 69 - 27 percent among white voters as Valdez leads 75 - 17 percent among black voters and 52 - 42 percent among Hispanic voters.

Only 6 percent of Texas likely voters remain undecided and only 3 percent of likely voters who name a candidate for governor say they might change their mind in the next eight days.

"In the governor's race, the good news for Lupe Valdez is that she has narrowed Gov. Greg Abbott's lead. The bad news is that she is still 14 points behind. It would take an historic comeback for her to win," Brown said.

From October 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lupe Valdez the Democrat or more toward Greg Abbott the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Valdez               40%     1%    88%    47%    35%    45%    32%    21%
Abbott               54     97      7     44     59     48     65     74
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 6      2      5      8      5      7      3      5
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Valdez               24%    29%    27%    75%    52%
Abbott               71     67     69     17     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      -
DK/NA                 4      3      4      7      5
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Valdez               28%    36%    19%    22%
Abbott               69     60     74     74
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 2      3      6      4
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Valdez                2%     1%    88%    88%    47%    48%
Abbott               97     97      7      7     47     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      1
DK/NA                 1      2      5      5      5     13
 
                     AREA....................................
                            Dallas        South
                     East   FtWrth Houstn Centrl West   South
 
Valdez               27%    44%    46%    45%    19%    46%
Abbott               67     50     48     46     73     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      -      -
DK/NA                 5      6      6      6      8      6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Valdez        Abbott
 
Mind made up         96%    96%           97%
Might change          3      4             3
DK/NA                 -      -             1
 
 
2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Beto O'Rourke the Democrat or more toward Ted Cruz the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
O'Rourke             46%     3%    96%    56%    39%    52%    36%    24%
Cruz                 51     96      2     40     56     45     62     73
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -      1      1
DK/NA                 3      1      2      3      3      3      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
O'Rourke             27%    33%    30%    86%    60%
Cruz                 70     65     67     12     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 1      2      2      2      4
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
O'Rourke             31%    40%    23%    24%
Cruz                 67     57     73     73
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      3      -
DK/NA                 2      2      1      3
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
O'Rourke              4%     2%    95%    97%    53%    61%
Cruz                 96     97      2      3     44     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      2      1
DK/NA                 1      1      3      1      2      5
 
                     AREA....................................
                            Dallas        South
                     East   FtWrth Houstn Centrl West   South
 
O'Rourke             26%    50%    53%    56%    23%    53%
Cruz                 68     47     45     40     72     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      1      2      1
DK/NA                 4      3      2      3      4      4
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot    O'Rourke      Cruz
 
Mind made up         98%    98%           98%
Might change          2      2             2
DK/NA                 -      -             -