November 6, 2017 - Democrat Has 9-Point Likely Voter Lead In Virginia, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Big Gender And Racial Gaps Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With yawning gender and racial gaps, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 51 - 42 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Cliff Hyra has 3 percent.

Today's result compares to a 53 - 36 percent likely voter lead for Northam in an October 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 71 - 20 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. White voters back the Republican 50 - 44 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 61- 33 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men back Gillespie 52 - 40 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra. Independent voters are divided with 46 percent for Northam, 42 percent for Gillespie and 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 96 - 3 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 92 - 5 percent, with less than 2 percent for Hyra.

"Republican Ed Gillespie is closing Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam's lead, but Gillespie still has a ways to go and only 24 hours to get there," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "A good sign for Gillespie is that in the last two weeks he has cut Lt Gov. Northam's 14-point lead among independents, the key bloc of voters, to a statistical tie. But any hopes that the Republicans have for victory will require their candidate to accomplish the Herculean task of making up a deep, 28-point deficit among women.

From October 29 - November 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,056 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat, Ed Gillespie the Republican, and Cliff Hyra the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ralph Northam the Democrat, Ed Gillespie the Republican or Cliff Hyra the Libertarian?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              51%     5%    96%    46%    40%    61%    56%    31%
Gillespie            42     92      3     42     52     33     41     62
Hyra                  3      2      -      6      5      1      1      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      1      1      6      3      4      2      3
 
                     WHITE.....           Non-
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              34%    55%    44%    71%
Gillespie            60     41     50     20
Hyra                  5      -      3      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      4      3      5