October 22, 2018 - Nelson Holds Lead In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hurricane Does Not Lift Scott Or Trump Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Despite his exposure in the wake of Hurricane Michael, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger in the U.S. Senate race, gains virtually no ground on Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, getting 46 percent of likely voters to Sen. Nelson's 52 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 53 - 46 percent likely voter lead for Sen. Nelson in a September 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Today, women, black, Hispanic and independent voters are the main drivers of Nelson's lead:
  • Women back the Democrat 59 - 39 percent, as men back Scott 54 - 44 percent;
  • White voters back Scott 53 - 44 percent. Nelson leads 94 - 3 percent among black voters and 59 - 39 percent among Hispanic voters;
  • Nelson leads 93 - 6 percent among Democrats and 60 - 38 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Scott 89 - 9 percent.
Only 2 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided and 4 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next 15 days.

"The Florida race is one of a handful of contests around the country that will decide control of the U.S. Senate. Sen. Bill Nelson and Gov. Rick Scott have spent so many millions of dollars on television ads it is almost impossible to avoid seeing them," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"At this point, Sen. Nelson's six-point overall lead is built on his large margin among independent voters, 60 - 38 percent. If that margin holds up, the senator will be difficult to beat. Moreover, Sen. Nelson's 20-point advantage among women is twice Gov. Scott's 10-point edge among men."

"Nelson is just better liked. Florida likely voters view him favorably by 10 percentage points, and see Gov. Scott unfavorably by five points," Brown added.

Florida likely voters give Nelson a 51 - 41 percent favorability rating.

Scott gets a negative 45 - 50 percent favorability rating, virtually unchanged from his negative 46 - 51 percent rating September 25.

Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a negative 46 - 51 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 44 - 54 percent job approval rating September 25.

From October 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Bill Nelson the Democrat or more toward Rick Scott the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Nelson               52%     9%    93%    60%    44%    59%    47%    42%
Scott                46     89      6     38     54     39     50     57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 2      1      1      1      2      2      2      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Nelson               36%    51%    44%    94%    59%
Scott                62     46     53      3     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 1      2      2      3      2
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Nelson               38%    54%    35%    49%
Scott                60     42     63     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 1      3      1      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Nelson                8%    10%    91%    94%    52%    68%
Scott                89     89      8      4     46     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 1      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Nelson               38%    53%    53%    43%    61%
Scott                59     45     46     54     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                 3      2      -      2      4
 
 
4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    Nelson        Scott
 
Mind made up         96%    96%           96%
Might change          4      3             4
DK/NA                 -      -             1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            51%    13%    88%    58%    43%    58%    49%    40%
Unfavorable          41     78      6     34     49     34     43     54
Hvn't hrd enough      6      7      5      6      6      7      6      4
REFUSED               2      2      -      2      2      2      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            38%    51%    45%    89%    57%
Unfavorable          55     42     48      3     33
Hvn't hrd enough      6      5      5      8     10
REFUSED               2      3      2      -      -
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            40%    56%    36%    45%
Unfavorable          51     36     58     49
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      4      4
REFUSED               1      2      2      3
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            10%    16%    86%    90%    52%    64%
Unfavorable          81     74     10      4     40     29
Hvn't hrd enough      6      8      4      6      7      5
REFUSED               2      3      -      -      1      2
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Favorable            40%    50%    53%    40%    62%
Unfavorable          51     42     39     52     31
Hvn't hrd enough      5      8      6      7      6
REFUSED               3      1      2      2      2
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            45%    85%     7%    37%    52%    38%    49%    53%
Unfavorable          50     11     87     60     43     57     47     44
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3      5      2      3      4      3      2
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      2      1      2      -
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            58%    45%    51%     6%    38%
Unfavorable          38     52     46     79     55
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      2     13      6
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            58%    41%    58%    48%
Unfavorable          36     55     40     49
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      2      1
REFUSED               3      1      -      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            84%    85%    12%     5%    42%    32%
Unfavorable          12     11     83     89     53     67
Hvn't hrd enough      2      4      4      6      3      2
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      2      -
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Favorable            54%    43%    44%    54%    36%
Unfavorable          40     52     52     42     57
Hvn't hrd enough      4      3      4      4      5
REFUSED               2      1      -      1      2
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              46%    90%     6%    39%    56%    38%    50%    58%
Disapprove           51      8     92     58     42     58     47     40
DK/NA                 3      2      2      3      2      4      3      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              63%    47%    54%     3%    38%
Disapprove           36     51     44     93     57
DK/NA                 2      3      2      4      5
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Approve              59%    43%    66%    51%
Disapprove           38     54     33     47
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Approve              93%    87%    11%     3%    46%    33%
Disapprove            6      9     88     94     50     66
DK/NA                 1      4      -      3      4      1
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Approve              59%    45%    46%    53%    37%
Disapprove           38     53     52     42     59
DK/NA                 3      1      3      5      4