October 23, 2018 - Gillum Leads In Tight Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Boosted By Independents, Women, Non-White Voters Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With big leads among women, black, Hispanic and independent voters, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for Florida governor, has 52 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, the Republican contender, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead for Mayor Gillum in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Today, there are wide racial, gender and partisan gaps:
  • White voters back DeSantis 54 - 44 percent. The Democrat leads 99 - 1 percent among black voters and 59 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters;
  • Women back Gillum 59 - 38 percent, as men back DeSantis 54 - 44 percent;
  • Gillum leads 96 - 4 percent among Democrats and 57 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans back DeSantis 89 - 8 percent.
Only 2 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided and 4 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next 14 days.

"Looking inside the numbers of the governor's race between Mayor Andrew Gillum and former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, we see shining examples of the problems Republicans face this year, not just in Florida, but around the country," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"The GOP has faced strong opposition from women and other anti-Trump voters. These defections have hurt GOP candidates around the country and made it difficult to attract the numbers of independent voters that are often major players in successful campaigns.

"Here in Florida that has translated into an 18-point Gillum lead among independent voters."

"Even more problematic for the GOP and telling about Mayor Gillum's candidacy, is that a liberal Democrat is on the plus side of a 50 - 47 percent split among white women," Brown added.

Gillum has a 50 - 38 percent favorability rating among Florida likely voters, compared to 55 - 31 percent September 26.

DeSantis gets a split 43 - 43 percent favorability rating, compared to a slightly negative 42 - 47 percent favorability rating September 26.

From October 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Gillum               52%     8%    96%    57%    44%    59%    46%    41%
DeSantis             46     89      4     39     54     38     50     58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 2      1      -      4      2      3      3      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Gillum               37%    50%    44%    99%    59%
DeSantis             62     47     54      1     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                 2      3      2      -      3
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Gillum               37%    54%    36%    45%
DeSantis             61     42     63     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Gillum                7%     9%    94%    98%    51%    62%
DeSantis             91     87      6      2     45     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 -      2      -      -      4      4
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Gillum               39%    55%    51%    44%    61%
DeSantis             57     43     46     54     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      3      2      2
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Gillum        DeSantis
 
Mind made up         95%    95%           95%
Might change          4      4             4
DK/NA                 -      -             1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            50%    11%    90%    56%    42%    58%    47%    40%
Unfavorable          38     75      3     33     47     31     42     48
Hvn't hrd enough     10     13      5      9     10     10      8     11
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      1      2      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            36%    50%    44%    93%    58%
Unfavorable          53     38     45      1     28
Hvn't hrd enough      9     10      9      6     12
REFUSED               2      2      2      -      1
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            37%    55%    35%    45%
Unfavorable          52     35     53     43
Hvn't hrd enough      8      8     10     12
REFUSED               2      2      2      1
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            10%    12%    84%    94%    50%    61%
Unfavorable          78     71      5      2     41     26
Hvn't hrd enough     11     15      9      3      7     11
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      2      2
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Favorable            39%    53%    49%    42%    60%
Unfavorable          44     36     42     47     29
Hvn't hrd enough     15      9      8     11      8
REFUSED               2      2      1      -      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            43%    83%     5%    37%    50%    37%    47%    53%
Unfavorable          43      9     77     46     36     48     43     36
Hvn't hrd enough     13      7     17     15     11     14      8      8
REFUSED               2      2      -      2      3      1      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            57%    44%    50%     3%    37%
Unfavorable          32     47     40     63     45
Hvn't hrd enough      8      9      8     32     18
REFUSED               3      1      2      2      -
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            57%    38%    57%    50%
Unfavorable          33     51     31     42
Hvn't hrd enough      7      9      9      8
REFUSED               2      2      3      -
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            85%    79%     5%     5%    42%    32%
Unfavorable           8      9     76     78     40     52
Hvn't hrd enough      4     10     17     17     15     14
REFUSED               2      1      1      -      3      1
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Favorable            52%    42%    42%    54%    35%
Unfavorable          31     44     46     41     46
Hvn't hrd enough     15     12     11      3     17
REFUSED               2      2      1      1      2