November 5, 2018 - Nelson Has 7-Point Lead In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gillum Also Up By 7 Points In Governor's Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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In the Florida U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson is holding off a challenge from Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican, and holds a 51 - 44 percent likely voter lead just one day before the election, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 52 - 46 percent likely voter lead for Sen. Nelson in an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Double-digit leads among independent voters and women, plus even bigger leads among black and Hispanic voters give Sen. Nelson his cushion:
  • Nelson leads 54 - 41 percent among independent voters and 91 - 4 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Scott 94 - 4 percent;
  • Women back the Democrat 53- 41 percent. Men are divided with 48 percent for Nelson and 47 percent for Scott;
  • White voters back Scott 55 - 41 percent. Nelson leads 87 - 6 percent among black voters and 59 - 31 percent among Hispanic voters.
While 5 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided, only 1 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow.

"Democrats Sen. Bill Nelson and Mayor Andrew Gillum have identical seven-point leads entering the final hours before Election Day in the races to be the next governor and U.S. senator from Florida," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Sen. Nelson has a 13-point edge among independent voters. Candidates with double- digit leads among independents rarely lose.

"There is little difference in the two races. Both leaders ran up double-digit leads among women; whites went heavily for the GOP candidates while non-whites went even more so for the Democrats."

In the Florida governor's race, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leads former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis 50 - 43 percent among likely voters. This compares to a 52 - 46 percent Gillum lead in an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University Poll.

The voters breakdown in the governor's race closely matches the U.S. Senate race:
  • Gillum leads 54 - 40 percent among women, as men are split 46 - 46 percent;
  • White voters go to DeSantis 54 - 41 percent as Gillum leads 90 - 3 percent among black voters and 57 - 29 percent among Hispanic voters;
  • Gillum leads 52 - 39 percent among independent voters and 93 - 4 percent among Democrats, as Republicans back DeSantis 93 - 4 percent.
While 6 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided in this race, only 1 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow.

"Mayor Andrew Gillum and his challenger, former Congressman Ron DeSantis, are running exactly the same, 93 - 4 percent among self-identified members of each of their respective parties. But Gillum's 13-point margin among independents is the difference in the outcome," Brown said.

From October 29 - November 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,142 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Gillum               50%     4%    93%    52%    46%    54%    47%    36%
DeSantis             43     93      4     39     46     40     50     58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                 6      3      3      8      7      6      3      5
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Gillum               33%    46%    41%    90%    57%
DeSantis             63     49     54      3     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -
DK/NA                 3      5      4      7     13
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Gillum               37%    54%    28%    40%
DeSantis             59     43     67     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      2      1
DK/NA                 3      4      3      6
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Gillum                5%     3%    92%    94%    46%    59%
DeSantis             92     93      3      4     45     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                 2      4      4      3      7      8
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Gillum               46%    51%    45%    43%    60%
DeSantis             45     43     52     51     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      1
DK/NA                 9      5      3      4      9
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Gillum        DeSantis
 
Mind made up         99%    98%           99%
Might change          1      1             1
DK/NA                 -      -             -
 
 
2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Bill Nelson the Democrat or more toward Rick Scott the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Nelson               51%     4%    91%    54%    48%    53%    47%    37%
Scott                44     94      4     41     47     41     50     59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 5      1      5      5      5      6      3      3
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Nelson               35%    45%    41%    87%    59%
Scott                63     50     55      6     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4      3      7     10
 
                     WHITE...................
                     COLLEGE DEG   NO COLLEGE
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Nelson               39%    52%    31%    40%
Scott                58     44     68     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1
DK/NA                 2      4      1      5
 
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom
 
Nelson                8%     2%    94%    89%    46%    62%
Scott                92     96      2      5     49     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      3      6      5      6
 
                     AREA.............................
                     North/ Bay    Cen-   South  South
                     Panhdl Area   tral   West   East
 
Nelson               48%    53%    45%    42%    59%
Scott                46     44     52     53     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      3      3      3      9
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot    Nelson        Scott
 
Mind made up         99%    99%           99%
Might change          1      1             1
DK/NA                 -      -             -