September 3, 2020 - Swing State Poll: Biden Leads Trump In Pennsylvania Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Presidential Race Is Too Close To Call In Florida Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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In Florida and Pennsylvania, two key states President Trump narrowly won in 2016, one race is tight and the other gives former Vice President Joe Biden a clear lead, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the two states. In Florida, 48 percent of likely voters support Biden and 45 percent support Trump. In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 52 - 44 percent.

These are the first surveys of likely voters in the 2020 presidential election race in Florida and Pennsylvania by the Quinnipiac University Poll, and cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

COMMON THREAD: MINDS MADE UP

Both states share something in common: nearly all likely voters say their minds are made up.

In Florida, 93 percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying they might change their minds. In Pennsylvania, 94 percent say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying their minds might change.

FLORIDA: HOW VOTERS PLAN TO CAST BALLOTS

Forty-two percent of Florida likely voters say they think they will vote in person on Election Day, 32 percent think they will vote early by mail or an absentee ballot, and 23 percent think they will vote at an early voting location.

FLORIDA: MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Given a list of choices, a plurality of Florida likely voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the presidential race. Twenty-seven percent name the economy, 19 percent say law and order, 15 percent name the coronavirus, and 13 percent say racial inequality.

Broken down by political party affiliation, the top issues vary. Forty-two percent of Republicans name the economy and 35 percent name law and order as their top issues. Twenty-nine percent of Democrats name the coronavirus as their top issue, while 24 percent say racial inequality. Among independents, the economy ranks as the top issue with 26 percent, followed by law and order at 16 percent.

FLORIDA: BIDEN VS. TRUMP ON THE ISSUES

Florida likely voters were asked which candidate would do a better job handling key issues:
  • On handling the economy: Trump 55 percent, Biden 42 percent;
  • On handling a crisis: Biden 49 percent, Trump 47 percent;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus: Biden 50 percent, Trump 45 percent;
  • On handling health care: Biden 51 percent, Trump 43 percent;
  • On handling racial inequality: Biden 53 percent, Trump 41 percent.
"Ain't no sunshine if it's gone... The president's re-election team faces the reality that the Trump era could end at sun splashed Mar-a-Lago in November if Joe Biden captures Florida," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

FLORIDA: FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Likely voters have slightly negative views of both presidential candidates. For Biden, 41 percent have a favorable opinion and 46 percent have an unfavorable one.

For Trump, 44 percent have a favorable opinion and 49 percent have an unfavorable one.

FLORIDA: JOB APPROVALS
  • Trump Job Approval: 46 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove.
  • Trump Handling of the Economy: 54 percent approve, 42 percent disapprove.
  • Governor Ron DeSantis Job Approval: 45 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove.
FLORIDA: HANDLING CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE
  • Trump Handling of Coronavirus: 46 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove.
  • DeSantis Handling of Coronavirus: 45 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove.
PENNSYLVANIA: HOW VOTERS PLAN TO CAST BALLOTS

In Pennsylvania, 67 percent of likely voters think they will vote in person on Election Day, with 30 percent saying they think they will vote early by mail or absentee ballot.

PENNSYLVANIA: MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Given a list of choices, a plurality of Pennsylvania likely voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the presidential race. Twenty-nine percent name the economy, 16 percent say the coronavirus, 15 percent name law and order, and 13 percent say racial inequality.

Republicans rank the economy (50 percent) and law and order (28 percent) as their top issues. Democrats name the coronavirus (29 percent) and racial inequality (25 percent), and independents name the economy (30 percent), law and order (15 percent), and the coronavirus (14 percent) as their top issues.

"The economy is key in Pennsylvania and a majority of likely voters approve of the way President Trump is handling it, but it's overshadowed by Trump's handling of the coronavirus and his overall job approval. Both are registering double digit deficits. On top of that, likely voters have more confidence in Joe Biden to handle the coronavirus, racial inequality, health care, and a crisis," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

PENNSYLVANIA: BIDEN VS. TRUMP ON THE ISSUES

Pennsylvania likely voters were asked which candidate would do a better job handling key issues:
  • On handling the economy: Trump 52 percent, Biden 45 percent;
  • On handling a crisis: Biden 52 percent, Trump 44 percent;
  • On handling health care: Biden 54 percent, Trump 42 percent;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus: Biden 54 percent, Trump 41 percent;
  • On handling racial inequality: Biden 57 percent, Trump 38 percent.
PENNSYLVANIA: FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Likely voters in Pennsylvania have a mixed view about Joe Biden and a negative view of President Trump.

Forty-six percent have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Forty-one percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 55 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

PENNSYLVANIA: JOB APPROVALS
  • Trump Job Approval: 43 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove.
  • Trump Handling of the Economy: 52 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.
  • Governor Tom Wolf Job Approval: 55 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove.
PENNSYLVANIA: HANDLING CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE
  • Trump Handling of Coronavirus: 43 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove.
  • Wolf Handling of Coronavirus: 55 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove.
From August 28th - September 1st, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,235 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
  • 1,107 likely voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.


1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
A lot                71%    68%
Some                 18     21
Only a little         7      8
None at all           3      3
DK/NA                 -      -
 
 
2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Biden                48%    52%
Trump                45     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1
DK/NA                 5      3
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2
                     FL     PA
 
Mind made up         93%    94%
Might change          5      5
DK/NA                 1      -
 
 
2b. (If vote Biden q2) What is the main reason behind your vote for Joe Biden over Donald Trump in November: mainly because you like Joe Biden, mainly because Joe Biden is the party's nominee, or mainly because you oppose Donald Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     VOTE BIDEN Q2
                     FL     PA
 
Like Biden           22%    25%
Is party nominee     10      8
Oppose Trump         64     65
DK/NA                 4      1
 
 
2c. (If vote Trump q2) What is the main reason behind your vote for Donald Trump over Joe Biden in November: mainly because you like Donald Trump, mainly because Donald Trump is the party's nominee, or mainly because you oppose Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     VOTE TRUMP Q2
                     FL     PA
 
Like Trump           53%    53%
Is party nominee      7      6
Oppose Biden         28     34
DK/NA                13      7
 
 
3_FLonly. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
In person            42%     -
Mail/Absentee ballot 32      -
Early voting loc     23      -
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -
DK/NA                 3      -
 
 
3_PAonly. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
In person             -     67%
Mail/Absentee ballot  -     30
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -
DK/NA                 -      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Favorable            41%    46%
Unfavorable          46     45
Hvn't hrd enough      8      7
REFUSED               5      2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Favorable            44%    41%
Unfavorable          49     55
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2
REFUSED               4      1
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (FL) Ron DeSantis / (PA) Tom Wolf - is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....
                     FL            PA
                     DeSantis      Wolf
 
Approve              45%           55%
Disapprove           45            38
DK/NA                10             6
 
 
7-8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (FL) Rick Scott, Marco Rubio / (PA) Bob Casey Jr., Pat Toomey - is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............
                     FL..........  PA...........
                     Scott  Rubio  Casey  Toomey
 
Approve              42%    47%    48%    36%
Disapprove           40     38     28     42
DK/NA                18     15     25     22
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Approve              46%    43%
Disapprove           50     54
DK/NA                 4      3
 
 
10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for president: the economy, immigration, health care, climate change, the coronavirus pandemic, racial inequality, law and order, or the Supreme Court?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Economy              27%    29%
Immigration           3      3
Health care           9      8
Climate change        5      5
Coronavirus          15     16
Racial inequality    13     13
Law and order        19     15
Supreme Court         5      6
DK/NA                 6      5
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Approve              54%    52%
Disapprove           42     46
DK/NA                 4      2
 
 
12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Trump                55%    52%
Biden                42     45
DK/NA                 3      3
 
 
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling health care: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Trump                43%    42%
Biden                51     54
DK/NA                 6      4
 
 
14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling a crisis: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Trump                47%    44%
Biden                49     52
DK/NA                 4      4
 
 
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling racial inequality: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Trump                41%    38%
Biden                53     57
DK/NA                 6      6
 
 
16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the response to the coronavirus: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Trump                45%    41%
Biden                50     54
DK/NA                 6      5
 
 
17. Would you describe the state of - Florida's/Pennsylvania's - economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Excellent             9%     3%
Good                 43     45
Not so good          32     40
Poor                 14     11
DK/NA                 2      2
 
 
18. Would you describe your financial situation these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Excellent            16%    15%
Good                 56     63
Not so good          19     15
Poor                  7      5
DK/NA                 2      1
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     FL     PA
 
Approve              46%    43%
Disapprove           51     55
DK/NA                 3      2
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (FL) Ron DeSantis / (PA) Tom Wolf - is handling the response to the coronavirus?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....
                     FL            PA
                     DeSantis      Wolf
 
Approve              45%           55%
Disapprove           49            41
DK/NA                 6             4
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail