February 26, 2015 - Clinton Is In Sweet Corn In Iowa Dem Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Warren, Biden In Tight Race As Second Choices Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With 61 percent of likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming early lead, leaving other contenders shivering in the cold, or perhaps avoiding the cold altogether, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has 19 percent, with 7 percent for Vice President Joseph Biden, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. No other candidate tops 5 percent and 6 percent are undecided.

If Secretary Clinton decides not to run, Sen. Warren is the choice of 36 percent of likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 32 percent for Vice President Biden. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont gets 8 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

Biden leads in one negative category, as 12 percent of likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants say they "would definitely not support him," with 6 percent saying no-way to Clinton.

"The Democratic race in the Iowa Caucuses a year before the voting can be summarized pretty succinctly: Hillary Clinton is the huge favorite. If she chooses not to run, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Joseph Biden are likely to begin at the top of a pack with other candidates scrambling to get into the race," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Peter A. Brown.

"Iowa Democratic caucus-goers are more moderate than their GOP counterparts: 45 percent of Democrats describe themselves as 'moderate' or 'conservative,' while 25 percent of Republicans say they are 'moderate' or 'liberal.'"

Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants give Clinton a 90 - 7 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other Democratic contenders are:
  • 77 - 15 percent for Biden;
  • 60 - 5 percent for Warren;
  • 84 percent don't know enough about former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley to form an opinion of him;
  • 56 percent don't know enough about Sanders;
  • 79 percent don't know enough about former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia.
By a 63 - 25 percent margin, Democratic Caucus participants say experience as a Senator or member of Congress better prepares a candidate to be president than experience as a governor or administrator.

Because her husband served as president, only 5 percent of Democratic Caucus-goers are less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, while 29 percent are more likely and 65 percent say it will make no difference.

The fact that Clinton would be the first woman president makes no difference in their choice, 73 percent of Democrats say.

"Democrats strongly favor the idea of a candidate with Senate or congressional experience while Republicans prefer one with administrative experience such as a governor," Brown said.

From February 16 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 619 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

4. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, Warren, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                 7%     9%     7%     7%     7%     7%
Clinton              61     49     68     63     51     69
O'Malley              -      -      -      -      -      -
Sanders               5     10      2      5      9      2
Warren               19     28     18     13     23     15
Webb                  2      3      2      2      4      1
DK/NA                 6      1      3     10      7      5
 
 
5. (If candidate chosen q4) Who is your second choice: Biden, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, Warren, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4...................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                30%    25%    35%    29%    27%    32%
Clinton              18     21     17     15     21     15
O'Malley              3      3      3      3      3      2
Sanders               9     11      9      7     12      6
Warren               23     32     16     24     26     21
Webb                  3      2      2      4      5      1
DK/NA                15      6     17     18      6     22
 
 
5a. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, Warren, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4 OR Q5 COMBINED....
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                35%    33%    41%    33%    32%    38%
Clinton              78     70     85     77     71     84
O'Malley              3      3      3      3      3      2
Sanders              14     22     11     11     20      8
Warren               40     59     33     35     47     35
Webb                  5      4      4      6      8      2
DK/NA                20      7     19     25     13     26
 
 
5b. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q4 ASKING CLINTON VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     MATCHUP Q4 WITHOUT CLINTON............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                32%    28%    39%    30%    28%    35%
O'Malley              2      1      3      3      2      2
Sanders               8     12      5      7     11      5
Warren               36     50     31     32     40     33
Webb                  4      3      4      5      6      2
DK/NA                17      5     18     23     11     23
 
 
6. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                12%     7%    13%    14%    10%    13%
Clinton               6      6      3      7      7      5
O'Malley              5      5      5      4      3      6
Sanders               3      1      3      4      4      2
Warren                3      1      5      3      3      3
Webb                  4      2      5      3      2      4
No/No-one            60     67     61     55     66     54
DK/NA                18     15     15     20     11     23
 
 
20. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            77%    89%    75%    72%    80%    75%
Unfavorable          15      9     16     18     12     18
Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      5      8      5      6
REFUSED               2      -      4      3      3      2
 
 
21. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            90%    91%    94%    88%    88%    92%
Unfavorable           7      9      3      9      9      6
Hvn't hrd enough      1      1      2      2      2      1
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      1
 
 
22. Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            12%    18%    17%     6%    12%    13%
Unfavorable           3      -      3      4      4      2
Hvn't hrd enough     84     82     80     90     84     85
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
23. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    57%    37%    32%    49%    31%
Unfavorable           3      2      3      4      4      3
Hvn't hrd enough     56     41     59     64     46     65
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      -      1
 
 
24. Is your opinion of Elizabeth Warren favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            60%    78%    54%    53%    68%    52%
Unfavorable           5      4      4      6      5      5
Hvn't hrd enough     35     18     41     40     27     41
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      -      1
 
 
25. Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            16%    27%    11%    13%    21%    11%
Unfavorable           4      3      5      4      4      5
Hvn't hrd enough     79     70     83     82     74     84
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      -      1
 
 
26. What is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for President?
                            Likely Dem
                            Caucus-goers
 
Economy(General)            18%
Jobs/Unemployment            4
Wages/Minimum Wage           1
 
Income inequality            4
Class inequality             5
 
Budget(General)              2
Budget deficit               1
 
Taxes(General)               1
Taxes on the wealthy         1
 
Education(General)           4
Funding/Spending education   1
 
Terrorism                    1
National Security            1
 
Gun Issues/Policy/Control    1
Healthcare                   5
Women's Issues               2
Social Issues                4
Housing/Affordable housing   1
Elderly Issues               2
Immigration Issues           2
Gay marriage/Gay Issues      2
Environment                  4
Gas/Oil/Energy Issues        1
 
Military Issues/Benefits     2
Foreign policy               6
 
Party/Political Philosophy   1
Bipartisan/Cross party lines
 /Coop to get things done    1
Electability                 3
Reduce size of government    1
 
Caring about people          1
Candidate experience         2
Leadership                   1
Honesty/Trustworthiness      1
 
Other                        5
DK/NA                        8
 
 
27. Which of the following types of experience do you think better prepares someone to be president: A) Serving as a state's governor and gaining experience as the head of an administration, or B) Serving as a U.S. Senator or member of Congress and gaining experience in Washington and in foreign policy?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Governor             25%    17%    30%    26%    30%    20%
US Senator/Congress  63     73     57     63     56     69
DK/NA                12     10     13     11     14     10
 
 
35. Hillary Clinton's husband served as president. Does that make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
More likely          29%    32%    29%    28%    31%    28%
Less likely           5      4      4      6      5      5
No difference        65     63     66     65     63     66
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      1      -
 
 
36. Hillary Clinton would be the first female president. Does that make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
More likely          24%    28%    22%    23%    18%    29%
Less likely           2      -      2      2      2      2
No difference        73     72     75     74     79     69
DK/NA                 1      -      2      -      1      -
 
 
37. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            92%    96%    93%    91%    95%    90%
Unfavorable           5      4      7      4      2      7
Hvn't hrd enough      2      -      1      3      2      2
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      1      1