September 26, 2016 - Clinton 44 - Trump 43, Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Democrat Has 9-Point Lead On Tonight's Debate Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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The presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump is a virtual dead heat, as she takes 44 percent of American likely voters to his 43 percent, with 8 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

This compares to a 41 - 39 percent Clinton lead among likely voters, with Johnson at 13 percent and Stein at 4 percent, in a September 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University.

In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton gets 47 percent to Trump's 46 percent.

American likely voters say 41 - 32 percent that Clinton will win tonight's presidential debate and 84 percent of voters say they plan to watch the highly anticipated showdown.

In fact, 55 percent of likely voters nationwide say they are "more motivated that usual" to vote, while 11 percent say they are less motivated and 33 percent say their motivation is "about the same as usual."

There is a small gender gap and a wide racial divide in the four-way likely voter matchup as Clinton leads 47 - 42 percent among women, while men go to Trump by a narrow 44 - 40 percent. Trump leads 50 - 36 percent among white voters, while non-white voters back Clinton 66 - 24 percent.

"The race for President is a virtual tie and millions of likely voters consider the first debate must-see TV. And for those inclined to place a wager on the likely winner, Hillary Clinton is the best bet," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"In this Super Bowl of American politics, the ratings will be huge and the contenders start dead even."

In the four-way presidential matchup, Trump leads 86 - 5 percent among Republicans and 42 - 35 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 90 - 6 percent.

Candidates' Health

American likely voters say 73 - 18 percent that Trump is healthy enough to be president.

Clinton is healthy enough to be president, voters say 58 - 31 percent.

For 33 percent of voters, their opinion of Trump was affected in a negative way by his participation in the so-called "birther movement" which said President Barack Obama was born outside the U.S., while 4 percent say their opinion was positive and 60 percent say it did not affect their opinion.

Trump's announcement that he now believes President Obama was born in the U.S. did not affect their opinion of him, 78 percent of likely voters say.

A total of 50 percent of voters are "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" that they or a family member will be a victim of a terrorist attack, while 50 percent are "not so concerned" or "not concerned at all."

Government anti-terror policies have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country, 51 percent of voters say, while 27 percent say they have gone too far restricting civil liberties.

From September 22 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,115 likely voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.


1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka the Green party candidates, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, Johnson and Weld, or Stein and Baraka?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Clinton and Kaine    44%     5%    90%    35%    40%    47%    36%    66%
Trump and Pence      43     86      6     42     44     42     50     24
Johnson and Weld      8      5      2     15      9      6      9      5
Stein and Baraka      2      -      1      5      3      -      2      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 4      3      2      4      3      5      3      3
 
 
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Clinton and Kaine    47%     6%    91%    43%    45%    49%    40%    68%
Trump and Pence      46     90      6     47     49     44     54     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      4      2      9      6      7      6      6
 
*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump Q1 Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference.


3. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of motivation to vote in this year's presidential election; are you more motivated than usual, less motivated, or about the same as usual?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
More                 55%    56%    60%    52%    52%    57%    52%    62%
Less                 11     12      8     13     12     11     12      9
About the same       33     31     32     35     35     32     35     28
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      -      1      1
 
 
4. Do you plan on watching or listening to the first presidential debate on Monday, September 26th, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Yes                  84%    84%    86%    86%    86%    83%    84%    87%
No                   13     14     11     11     12     13     13     10
DK/NA                 3      3      4      3      2      4      3      3
 
 
5. Who do you think will win the debate, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Clinton              41%    11%    75%    36%    38%    44%    37%    55%
Trump                32     61      6     32     39     25     36     21
DK/NA                27     27     19     32     23     30     28     24
 
 
6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, do you think that Hillary Clinton is healthy enough to be President, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Yes                  58%    27%    90%    57%    58%    58%    53%    73%
No                   31     61      4     33     33     30     36     19
DK/NA                10     13      7     11      9     12     11      8
 
 
7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, do you think that Donald Trump is healthy enough to be President, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Yes                  73%    92%    54%    76%    78%    69%    79%    58%
No                   18      4     34     15     15     21     13     32
DK/NA                 9      4     12      8      7     10      8     10
 
 
8. Was your opinion of Donald Trump affected or not affected by his participation in the birther movement, which said that President Obama was born outside the United States? (If affected) Did it affect your opinion of Trump in a positive or negative way?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Affected/Positive     4%     7%     3%     3%     5%     4%     4%     4%
Affected/Negative    33      9     52     36     35     31     31     38
Not affected         60     82     41     57     58     62     62     54
DK/NA                 3      2      4      4      3      4      3      4
 
 
9. Was your opinion of Donald Trump affected or not affected when he said he now believes that President Obama was born in the United States? (If affected) Did it affect your opinion of Trump in a positive or negative way?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Affected/Positive     5%     9%     2%     4%     6%     4%     5%     4%
Affected/Negative    14      6     24     12     13     15     12     19
Not affected         78     84     69     81     78     78     80     73
DK/NA                 4      2      5      3      3      4      3      5
 
 
10. What concerns you more about the government's anti-terrorism policies: that they have gone too far in restricting the average person's civil liberties, or that they have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Gone too far         27%    12%    36%    33%    31%    24%    26%    31%
Not gone far enough  51     77     32     47     51     52     54     45
DK/NA                21     10     32     19     18     24     20     24
 
 
11. How concerned are you that you or someone in your family will be the victim of a terrorist attack: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not so concerned, or not concerned at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Very concerned       16%    24%    12%    13%    11%    20%    15%    20%
Somewhat concerned   34     37     28     37     26     40     34     30
Not so concerned     28     23     30     29     32     24     28     27
Not concerned at all 22     15     28     21     30     15     22     23
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      1      -      -